Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United

LAST TIME OUT

Well Saturday was a bit of a bummer wasn't it?  I'll admit that this first section is a rewrite.  I wrote the original on Sunday and having read it back, I was still chucking toys out of my pram about it all.   Lets face it, I can't do that in front of the Leeds fans so here is the calm, reflective version.

Listening to Paul Dickov's post (almost) match, I have to say he's got it right.  You have to respect and accept the referee's decision to call the match off.  You don't have to think it correct, and with Chris Powell also wanting to complete the fixture I think the correctness of the call is questionable.  But there was a lot of water on that pitch.  At least the decision could be understood.

I'm less charitable about Charlton Athletic FC.  Not the players or coaching staff but the club.  The equipment that was being used to try and save the fixture while it was still raining was wholly inadequate.  This club was in the premier league in 2007 - really ?  Its all the more unacceptable when I read some comments from fans returning from the game.  Flooding at the Valley is not a new phenomenon.  They know of the problem.  When I think of the money Rovers have spent trying to improve the Keepmoat pitch over the years you have to ask why the Valley doesn't have better drainage.

Dickov also clearly indicated that he would be appealing Paul Keegan's dismissal.  Quite right too under the circumstances.  Neither of Keegan's offences involved dangerous or cynical play.  I see no reason for not wiping the disciplinary slate of both teams clean from that fixture.  Lets hope common sense prevails at Football League HQ.

The football statistics websites got themselves into a right tizzy due to the abandonment.  I think some of them archive stats used to create the "match centres" as the match is played.  This has meant some data has gone into the databases that really shouldn't be there.  The teccys now have to get it out again.

Anyway, this is how the match looked statistically as it was called off.  Not particularly relevant but you never know, it might scare our friends from West Yorkshire  a little ;-).  Lets face it, I've seen worse shooting statistics.

Meanwhile....

Leeds did get a full match in on Saturday, visiting Portman Road and coming away with all three points for the first time in 12 years at that ground.

Leeds didn't have it all their own way though and at the start, Ipswich were more lively.  Ipswich had already had a Jay Tabb goal ruled out for offside when they took the lead in the 11th minute.  Route 1 by Ipswich;  a goal kick flicked on by Murphy into the path of David McGoldrick.  He ran at  Leeds' Tom Lees who slipped giving McGoldrick the space to place a great finish into Paddy Kenny's bottom right corner.  But Leeds then came back.  Ross McCormack, looking as dangerous as ever rolled the dice from range, the ricochet fell kindly for Luke Varney who blasted into the top of the goal. 

After the break and it was McCormack from range that gave Leeds' their winner.  Stepping in from the left he hit a hard low shot that had none of its pace taken away by a deflection or two before hitting the bottom corner.  Ipswich pressed hard to get back on terms but Leeds stayed firm enough to keep a grip on the points.

So a good start to the season from Leeds with 2 wins and 2 draws.  The much despised Ken Bates is out of the club removing an obvious distraction and Brian McDermott is starting his first full season in charge.  Expect Leeds to be there or thereabouts this season.

So what can we expect?

Quick explanation of the arrows in that table.  An up arrow indicates Doncaster's statistic to be better than Leeds.  A down arrow indicates worse than Leeds.  The horizontal arrows indicate more or less even performance.

It's very even between these sides.  

Donny have generally won the aerial battle in their matches so far...but so have Leeds.  Its going to be very interesting to see who comes out on top and I think that the answer to that question may well identify the winner.

At first sight the stats appear to be in Leeds' favour but pay real attention to the last two stats as for me, they are the most important.  High shooting efficiency simply means the team takes it's chances.  A lower amount of possession minutes per shot indicates a side that moves the ball to a shooting chance quickly.  Combine good shooting efficiency with the ability to make shooting opportunities quickly and you should win matches.  To show where the sides are in these respects, average possession minutes per shot in the championship so far has been 4.2 minutes and the average shooting efficiency is 9.8%.  

So if Rovers can overcome Leeds' ability in the air, I think they will win.  

Doncaster Rovers Player Stats

 What I am loving about those stats is the large number of tackles being put in by Rovers forwards.  Having watched a few Leeds performances, despite good aerial dual stats posted by Jason Pearce and Tom Lees, Leeds do look vulnerable to crosses.  Rovers have been profiting from set-pieces and crosses especially from Chris Brown's knock-downs so that could be a key contest.

As far as the Rovers defence is concerned, the first but by no means the only thing they must do is stop McCormack.  That will not be easy.  Ross McCormack drops off the frontline to pop up in all sorts of areas.  His pace is devastating and he will shoot on sight - normally accurately.  Due to his movement, I'd see stopping him as a team job rather than a task for a particular individual.  A difficult job.

Anyway - I think we're in for an interesting and entertaining evening.  Enjoy the match everyone.

Doncaster Rovers v Blackburn Rovers

Last Time Out

...or first time out as it happens to be in this case.  Sadly, Donny came off worst in the end but are we disheartened?  Well personally, no.  My impression listening to the match was that the 1 : 3 scoreline flattered Blackpool more than a little.  

The first two goals were disappointing, the third an irrelevance as were the scores still level, it would not have happened.  Good lessons to be learned about things Donny got away with last season that this season will cost them.  The first goal was a case of everyone rushing to close down a shot, but then being nowhere when the 'keeper wasn't able to push away as far as he would have liked.  The second goal was a needless corner followed by crucially losing the man at the back post.

But didn't Donny compete well?

The Seasiders had more possession than us but were massively out-competed in the air.  Pleasingly, all Donny's passing stats were better than their opponents, but the stats also indicate why Blackpool were able to keep Rovers from scoring more than the one goal.  Look at the throw count against Donny.  Blackpool were able to keep forcing Donny into playing the ball out so disrupting flow in Rovers play.  

There's a table of the Rovers' general performance stats.  Up arrows show better than average performance and down arrows worse than average.  Where appropriate, I've marked the best and worst stats in the class in green and red.  The data comes from www.whoscored.com and is sorted in the order of their ranking (highest to lowest).  

I'll pick out a couple of points that I see from the stats.  The two highest ranked players were our Centre Backs and you see them both contributing well to tackling and the aerial battle.  You can add over 60% of the Rovers clearances their stats and you see that they came under pressure but stood up well.

Also worth a mention is Chris Brown.  Yes, he's a little way down that list, mainly due to poor passing but the aerial balls won; the fact that he wasn't dispossessed in the game and  a couple of turnovers won, and you see a man who did a fine job as the lone front man.  He needs support though and hopefully, new signing Theo Robinson will provide that.

Final mention, sadly not so positive.  James Husband didn't show so well.  His passing was off and he made just two tackles.  It wasn't much better looking at his attacking stats.  None of his crosses found their target and he played just one accurate long ball.  Not a good day for James but it would be harsh to write off his chances of stepping up to the championship after one game.

Meanwhile...

Blackburn were getting off the mark with a draw at Derby but unlike Donny, Blackburn have seen action since the opening day, which means of course that I have twice as many stats to deal with (waves of enthusiasm over the ether!).

Just one point out of six was won with an opening day draw against Derby.  Luck only came into that result in that Blackburn equalized in the 89th minute through and excellent finish by Leon Best, but they were good value for the point.  They kept attacking Derby right up to the end even after they had equalized.  What impressed me was how they broke at speed through series of quick, short passes.  Impressive and intimidating.

On to game two the East Midlands are up again in the form of Nottingham Forest who visited Ewood Park.  Having won a point with a last-gasp goal on th opening day, on this occasion they lost the point and sadly, it was a case of giving it away rather than having it taken.  'Keeper Karl Darlow committed himself to a ball he had little chance of taking and instead clattered into Jamie Mackie.  Other players may have rolled around crying for a penalty but refreshingly, Mackie didn't.  Instead he got up and played a quick short pass to Darius Henderson who placed his finish into the empty net.  

Comparing the stats on the two games and I think I've highlighted the key-points that lost Blackburn the Forest game.  They allowed their opponents too much possession.  Blackburn made 50% fewer tackles than Forest allowing them to knock the ball around (high pass success).  On the other hand, Blackburn's possession was broken up.  End result - look at the shot counts.  21 shots for Blackburn at Derby but only 6 at home to Forest.

There's the Blackburn average performance data per match so far and first of all, its good to see Tommy Spurr doing well.  Other interesting points? - Leon Best, like Chris Brown look like a formidable front man but look at the number of dispossessions.  Against Derby he lost the ball just once.  Against Forest it was 5 times.  Perhaps he is worth pressurising.

Finally we see that so far Jordan Rhodes hasn't been involved enough in games.  He's also not doing what he's paid to do and shooting.  Even in the shot-fest against Derby, Jordan only managed two shots.  Lets hope he doesn't suddenly improve tomorrow evening.  

The Pub Team are Back!

 

We've finally done it! Many thought it was simply not possible but in the end, it had to happen. I'm talking about being drawn at home for the first league fixture of the season. The last time it happened was 6 years ago in 2007 when Millwall were the opponents in our opening league 1 fixture. Saturday's match is just the second time Rovers have been at home on first day since being promoted back into the football league. The Millwall game ended goalless but the season of course ended in play-off triumph. I'd be happy to take history repeating itself!

At this point in the blog, I normally rabbit on about the last time out but it hardly seems relevant with it being the first game. Then again, it wasn't such a bad last time out from a Rovers point of view was it? Carlsberg don't do season endings but if they did....Anyway, in case anyone missed it, here's my take on 2012/13 with Rovers.

I have to confess that I don't do closed seasons very well. I seriously cannot be bothered with the wild speculation and pure rubbish that is written in the press and on the forums at this time of year. So, until Wednesday I had read very little about the Rovers. I had however gleaned that they had been to Portugal on a pre-season tour.

 

Portugal? Last season it was Cleethorpes! Touring Portugal pre-season actually sounds like something a proper club might do! Could Rovers be becoming a proper club. You know, with money and everything?

 

Fast forward to Wednesday, just 4 days before we are due to kick-off a championship campaign and there's the pub team I know and love. We had just 13 players on the books on Wednesday Morning (let's face it, most pub teams have more). Micky Walker (who no longer even works for the club) deputizes for Paul Dickov at a live "meet the South Yorkshire Managers" radio event and announces to our local rivals that we're shopping at Aldi rather than M&S. At another press event Ryan, Baldwin and Watson attempt to not answer questions on takeover speculation for 15 minutes when a statement would surely have delivered the same meagre information with a little less cringing from the fans. Tommy Spurr walks away from the club to Blackburn because we were too slow with his paperwork. Yeah...the pub team is alive and kicking.

 

Player-wise, we did manage some late signings. We had to! So we start tomorrow not looking in such bad shape. That old adage about it being important to have your team together for the pre-season was forgotten but it was last season too, and that worked out OK. So it's welcome to Ross Turnbull, Mark Duffy, Harry Forrester, Luke McCullough, Marc de Val, Bongani Khumalo and Richie Wellens. We've got to the starting line. It's going to be a long slog to the finish but, yes, we will have the temerity to compete hard for 21st place.

 

And so on to Blackpool. There are a surprising number of parallels between our two clubs. First of all there's the fact that Blackpool also have issues with the fixture computer (or however they work out who is at home for the first game). Blackpool are away on first day for the fifth consecutive season.

 

Then we have the manager, Paul Ince. Ince, like Dickov hasn't had the best of management careers up to date. After winning a league trophy and a League 2 Championship with MK Dons in 2008, Ince's managerial career has been a series of embarrassing failures. At Blackburn, admittedly, one of the worst run clubs in the country, he managed just 3 wins in 17 games in charge and was fired after less six months. After a "nothing" season back at the Dons, he went to Notts County. Again it ended badly with Ince and the club parting company after a record 9 match losing streak. Now starting his first full season in charge at the Seasiders, many think this could be a make or break season for Ince.

 

Ince has by his own admission been frustrated when it has come to building his squad for the season. He has managed to bring five new recruits on board in the form of Bobby Grant, Michael Chopra, Steven Davies, Gary MacKenzie and Jack Robinson but 14 players have left Bloomfield Road. So Blackpool come into the first match of the season with just 13 fit first team players. Pub team?

 

But it's football and its back - Horaay! Perhaps more people will now start writing about things that are happening rather than things they may believe, feel or guess is happening. We can only hope!

Posted with Blogsy

League Division 1 Final: Brentford v Doncaster Rovers

Last time out...

Aaaaaaarrrrrrrgggggghhhh! It was there! It was right there! Rovers came out onto the Keepmoat knowing that a win would mean that both Bournemouth and Brentford would have to win to prevent Rovers gaining an immediate return to the championship. They came, they saw but were conquered.

The visitors started the better side and had the lead in spectacular style after just 14 minutes. Alan Judge, back from injury side-footed a free-kick to Joss Labadie who hammered an unstoppable shot into Neil Sullivan's top left corner. Doncaster had 75 minutes to score twice and keep the pressure on Bournemouth and Brentford.

Shortly after the County goal, Dean Furman did manage to head in to Fabian Speiss' net but he was clearly offside. Other than that Rovers looked nervous and struggled to keep the ball. Half time was urgently required.

In the second and Rovers were better. Billy Paynter was able to round Speiss but his finish was from an angle where only the near post was available. Plenty of defenders were back and in the end it was a routine goal-line clearance. Tommy Spurr put an effort from range over the bar and Iain Hume had another effort cleared off the line, but like the earlier effort from Paynter, it was from a tight angle with plenty of players back. Perhaps the closest Rovers came was when first Coppinger and then Chris Brown had efforts blocked but in honesty, Rovers' 18 shots did not contain any stand-out efforts as the Magpies' defence proved a solid unit. In the end, a huge opportunity was missed. Rovers will be taken to the wire if they are to win promotion.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 1 Notts County.

Meanwhile...

Brentford had the advantage of knowing as they started their match that Rovers hadn't got the win they needed to force the Bees to require a win. But a win with Brentford scoring more than 1 goal would have stacked today's deck firmly in the Bees favour by making Rovers require a win in the last game. Against already relegated Hartlepool, surely this was possible.

Possible...without a doubt, but thankfully for the Rovers, they didn't do it! Early in the first half, Bradley Wright-Phillips picked a Pools' defender's pocket in his own half, advanced on goal and uncharacteristically blazed the ball over when everyone would have expected better of him. Working to close down Hartlepool in their own half seemed a tactic when again the home side were dispossessed in a dangerous position. With good football, the ball was crossed into the area and played back for Jake Reeves to shoot hard but straight at Scott Flinders in the Hartlepool goal from the edge of the area.

It was the home side that took the lead though, ironically from the Bees giving away possession cheaply in their own half. Pool advanced with Luke James who's cross came to Jack Baldwin. Brentford survived initially through Harlee Dean's excellent block but the ball came out only as far as James who struck a fine finish through the crowd.

Wright-Phillips was at the centre of most good things Brentford were doing. A cross into the box was headed horribly high as the Bees pressed for an equalizer. More capitalizing on Hartlepool's inability to keep a ball in their own half led to an efforts from first Trotta and then Wright-Phillips being blocked. Eventually, the pressure paid off. A long ball to the right wing was just kept in and pulled back for Jonathan Douglas to head goal-wards. The terrific save from Flinders pushed the ball back to the right where it was played in low to Marcello Trotta. Trotta had plenty to do with his back to goal, but he held off his marker to turn and shoot into Flinders' goal.

Compared with the first half, the match went somewhat flat in the second and neither side really created a good opening. Brentford came closest to winning it with Jonathan Douglas heading over and Tom Adeyemi running through to shoot wide late on. But Brentford could not get the goal that would have forced Donny to go for the win on final day.

Hartlepool 1 : 1 Brentford

Earlier this season...

This week we saw Barca lose 4 : 0 despite having 65% possession and everyone marveled at how the Germans neutralized the Spaniards' possession game.

Well, that's nothing! Back in October Rovers beat the Bees despite only having 28% possession. OK, apart from a massive possession advantage for the losing side the two matches had little in common. Brentford's massive possession advantage came not because Rovers' allowed them possession in non-dangerous areas, but rather because they were completely outplayed by the Bees. Highway robbery for Rovers in the end? Well, nearly but not quite. Another aspect in which the games at the Keepmoat and the Allianz were similar was in the respect of how chances were limited for the sides with all the possession. Rovers deserve some credit for that.

But having said that, few in Donny would argue that the better team lost on the day. The home team crafted an early chance for Kyle Bennett but he was closed down quickly and was blocked. Brentford then took over in the most convincing manner. Clayton Donaldson should have given the Bees the lead when he rolled the ball wide of the far post after latching on to a woeful back-pass from Shelton Martis. The breakthrough came just before half-time. Adam Forshaw played a through ball for Jonathan Douglas to lift over the advancing Gary Woods.

In the second half the pattern continued. Brentford dominated the game but significantly couldn't create any real openings as Donny defended deeply. Their best opening fell again to Donaldson after he looked to capitalize on a mistake in Doncaster's midfield. Fortunately, his final touch was too firm and it allowed Gary Woods to save bravely at his feet.

Against the run of play, a David Cotterill special from 30 yards flew into Simon Moore's top-left corner. The act of daylight robbery was completed with six minutes to go when Billy Paynter headed home from Martin Woods' cross. Very harsh on Brentford. Very lucky for Donny.

The season so far...

Brentford's Season

Doncaster's Season

The season has been very similar for both sides. Both have risen into the leading places at the same time and then have stayed there, more or less.

And so we end up where we are now, meeting on the last game of the season. Two points separating the teams with Doncaster having a now irrelevant 1-goal advantage in terms of goal difference. As the table shows, after 45 games the teams have remarkably similar records. Brentford, the best team at home in the league having lost just two games; Donny with four defeats on their travels, the best away side of the 24. As Harry Hill would say. "So Brentford or Doncaster...who are the best. There's only one way to find out. FIGHT!!!!"

...and so to the Game.

So who is going to take that last automatic promotion place today? Well, I don't predict matches other than trying to say how it will go. Obviously, the pressure involved with this one means that the team who prove the best at holding their nerve will win it. In this respect, Rovers failed to hold their nerve last week so maybe they are more prone to failure on the big occasion? On the other hand, lasts week's result took the pressure right off Brentford, meaning last week Rovers had their dress rehearsal for today, while Brentford did not.

Then again, do Brentford need a dress rehearsal? They have had one big occasion at Griffin Park already this season, and did very well in taking Chelsea to a replay in the FA Cup. Nerves and the occasion? You could argue a case for either side.

Maybe we look at how the sides have got into this position, for that has been different.

No team in the league has had more shots on goal than Brentford. To win, they have relied on good approach play to create a lot of chances. Such a game is great to watch and I'd imagine Bees fans going home from Griffin Park very happy most weeks. But when their chances are limited, as despite all the possession, they were at the Keepmoat in October, they can be beaten.

Donny, have done things differently. An average of just 9.36 shots per game is the fifth worst in the league and in the top half, only Tranmere have had fewer. But more of those efforts are successful, especially away from home. Which approach will prove the best depends on what kind of game we get. If it's cagey, advantage Doncaster. In an open game, you've got to like Brentford's chances.

So, its as easy as that then. Open game and it's Brentford's in a tight match Donny? If things were that simple, I'd be making a fortune on in-play betting! Lets have a look at some in game trends (Donny fans may want to look away at this point).

That's the trend of the possession efficiency (in this case lower numbers mean fewer minutes in possession per shot - generally, a good thing). You see Brentford generally better than Donny, but in recent games its been much closer. So Donny will be OK in an open game then? Sadly not. That shooting efficiency that I've been touting has deserted us somewhat of late. In fact, at the moment, the Bees are performing better than the Rovers in this respect. Today, that needs to change!

Reading the Daily Mail's preview to the game, they pick out Clayton Donaldson, Marcello Trotta and 'keeper Simon Moore as key in the Brentford side.

Donaldson's influence is clear and Donny fans will no doubt wish that the two yellow cards that he received against Sheffield United had come one game later to rule him out of this one. Trotta has nicked vital goals of late that have kept the Bees in the automatic promotion hunt. As far as 'keepers are concerned, Moore is one of the best in League 1. In terms of shot stopping, he ranks number 6 but Brentford's football shows his ball distribution is also excellent.

Personally, I would add two players to that list. Jonathan Douglas' experience may well calm any jitters that may be around in the Brentford team today, and over recent games, it is hard to ignore Bradley Wright-Phillips.

According to the Mail, the Rovers' players to watch are Billy Paynter, David Cotterill and Rob Jones.

I read an article discussing the Rovers' home performances this season by albirossi. He sums up the Rovers' strikers perfectly. Paynter will get goals at this level. 13 goals from 52 shots - a 25% strike rate, which is not to be sneezed at. Then there's Iain Hume. Humey is less than half as clinical with just 6 goals from the same number of shots (11.5% strike rate). But goals aren't everything. When it comes to contributing to a team performance, Hume will run himself daft for the cause.

But for me, there's an unsung hero up front, at least by the Daily Mail. Chris Brown has been peerless in this division as a target man. A 19.5% strike rate alone would get him in most teams; his size makes him an obvious threat in the air and he has strength and two good feet that enable him to hold the ball up like no other striker in this division.

Rob Jones has been massive all season for Rovers making most aerial threats from opponents superfluous. But on the ground, can he handle the footballing threat Donaldson and Trotta will provide? Jones is more than just a big centre-back but I worry about him and his partner McCoombe's pace against such players. Hopefully the football brains of this pair will make up for any exposure to pace.

David Cotterill has had an incredible season as either scoring or providing the assist for 30 of Rovers' 61 goals this term would indicate. Nobody in the league comes anywhere near this contribution to team goals. As the article suggests though, Cotterill has not been as effective of late and today would be a very good time for him to find his form.

Anyone else? Is it me, or is today made for James Coppinger? Of all the players in the team, and arguably all the players on show, he has the potential to be the headline-grabber. His performances this season have been OK, but nothing more. It's the sort of occasion that Copps could make his own. If he does, Rovers will win, and we're all in for a treat!

Anyway, it's nervy, it's exciting it's mouthwatering. Enjoy the day everyone!

Doncaster Rovers v Notts County

Last Time Out...

Donny travelled to Crewe and thought it a good idea to give all their fans palpitations before deciding to deliver the result we all wanted.

It was cagey at first.  Rovers probed tentatively at a dodgy Crewe defence, while Crewe, though pegged back for much of the first half, looked capable of breaking away to get something.  Chris Brown headed James Husband's cross wide of the far post; Coppinger tried his luck from range while Crewe's No. 26, Chucks Aneke tried the same.  But these were all half-chances at best.  The first real opportunity was created by Aneke, sliding a ball through the defence to put Byron Moore in on goal.  Sullivan saved well for Rovers.  At the other end, James Husband did have the ball in the net as he latched onto Iain Hume's through-ball.  The linesman ruled Husband had timed his run too soon.  It was a close run thing.

Hume was proving to be Donny's most creative and threatening player and from point blank range, he tried to improvise a finish from Rob Jones' flick.  Superb reflexes from Alan Martin denied Rovers and earned the 'keeper a sporting "low-5" from Hume.

Nine minutes into the second half and Crewe took the lead.  Hume gave the ball away cheaply in midfield to the impressive Aneke.  He duly slipped in Max Clayton who beat Sullivan low to his right.  Time for Rovers' fans to get nervous.

They pressed and were denied again by the linesman's flag though this time less controversially with Chris Brown clearly offside as he turned in Dean Furman's scuffed shot.  There followed a substitution and a controversial one.  The introduction of Billy Paynter was expected but for Hume who had up to this point in the game proven to be Rovers' main threat?  Many doubted the decision and Hume certainly wasn't impressed.

But Paynter's addition was to change the game.  First he ran with the ball into space at the edge of the area and hit a shot into Martin's bottom-left corner.  Four minutes later, and McCoombe flicked on John Lundstram's lofted ball into the area.  There was Paynter to redirect the ball into the bottom corner and Donny had the lead with 20 minutes remaining.

It was still nervy for Donny.  Crewe substitute Oliver Turton clipped the outside of Neil Sullivan's post, but the league leaders held on for a vital win.  

Crewe Alexandra 1 : 2 Doncaster Rovers

Meanwhile...

Wins for Brentford, Sheffield United and Bournemouth underlined how vital that result was for Donny.

In a less vital game, Notts County faced Colchester United at Meadow Lane.

Early on and Colchester were nearly gifted the lead when possession was given away by the home side in their own half.  The resulting shot was pushed around the post by Bartosz Bialkowski.  From the resulting corner, Jabo Ibehre should have done much better as he headed over while unmarked in the six-yard box.  

At the other end and Jamal Campbell-Ryce attempted and nearly achieved the spectacular, beating his man before trying one from 30 yards that flew just wide of the far post.  After 18 minutes a series of headers flicked the ball from midfield to the Magpie's right-wing in an attacking position.  Curtis Thompson crossed and Jeff Hughes shot at full stretch had enough on it for Sam Walker only to be able to push it further into his own net.

But the Us had been decent up until this point and they deservedly equalized.  Good football on the left moved the ball to Andrew Hughes who crossed for Jabo Ibehre to have the simplest of tap-ins.

Into the second period and Campbell-Ryce was still trying to score a screamer and with efforts as good as he is capable, why not?  From 25 yards he had Walker scrambling to save at the near post.  It took until the 77th minute for County to retake the lead.  A corner found Yoann Arquin unmarked about 9 yards out and a header was put into the top corner.  The Magpies finished the match in injury time.  Enoch Showumni played a through-ball for substitute Romello Nangell to score his first professional goal.

County looked susceptible in defence at times but there's no denying their potency up front with Campbell-Ryce, Arquin and Showumni looking a handful at times.

Notts County 3 : 1 Colchester United

Earlier this season...

Donny made the short trip down to Nottingham and came away with all the points in an impressive victory.

The first half was pretty dismal, only enlightened when Iain Hume dispossessed Ashley Eastham in the midfield and raced though to shoot narrowly wide.  

In the second and after 58 minutes, Rovers' should have led.  Cotterill floated a free-kick into Tommy Spurr who headed back across goal for Kyle Bennett to head a long way over the County bar from about 3 yards.  But on 61 minutes, Bennett made amends.  A good through-ball found David Syers who chipped in a cross for Paul Keegan to head into the bottom corner.  Two minutes later and it was two-nil.  A long ball from midfield found Hume who in turn found Chris Brown just inside the area.  There was still plenty for Brown to do, but he did it.  A little trickery gave him the space to shoot into the near bottom corner.

A good win for Donny away from home against a side one place above them in the league at the time.

Notts County 0 : 2 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so far...

It all started so well for County but in the end, they have failed to deliver on their early promise.  In their first 9 games, the Magpies were only beaten the once and notched five wins.  But all season, they've never managed more than two victories in a row.  Compare with Rovers, who have managed four victories in a row once and three a further twice, and you see the difference between mid-table and table leaders.

In the end County have too many draws on their slate.  Sixteen in all.  Only one side has more, Sheffield United (how crucial could that prove this season?).  Lately, County have had arguably their worst run of the season, losing three times in a row before that win last week.  I noticed that these three defeats came against leading sides (Bournemouth, Yeovil and Brentford) so do they have an issue aginst the better side in the league.  It would seem so!  Against the top-half sides County have accumulated only 14 of their 61points.  In this respect they are 20th best in the league, a far cry from their overall 12th position.

Season High: 1st (September)
Season Low: 14th (January)

...and so to the Game

Well, as is always the case in football, thousands of permutations of results end up coming down to quite simple scenarios as the number of games remaining reduces.

If Donny win tomorrow and neither Bournemouth nor Brentford can match that result, crack open the Champagne for we are champions!

If Donny win and either Bournemouth or Brentford do not win its worth at least a few pints as Donny are promoted with a shot the title during the last match of the season.

Honestly?  I can't see Brentford doing anything other than beating already relegated Hartlepool.  Bournemouth should also beat Carlisle at home.  Wait a minute...we should have beaten Carlisle at home.  Can lightening strike twice?

But let's not get too carried away.  First of all, we have to beat Notts County.  As I've hinted, I wasn't at all impressed with their defence but going forward, they are certainly good enough.  

That said, the Magpies haven't won since January on their travels but they have a nasty (for everyone) habit of getting away-draws.  Eleven so far this season, which is two more than anyone else.  

The goal-time distribution for the Magpies shows that goals at both ends increase in frequncey as the game goes on.  This is pretty standard among football teams.  It's also what is to be expected as teams push more to win as less time remains.

As far as injuries are concerned, County are bolstered by the return to the squad of Alan Judge after suspension.  How important is he?  Look right!

Neal Bishop is also likely to be in the squad but after having seen his youngsters perform well against Colchester, Chris Kiwomya has a decision to make as to whether to keep faith with Curtis Thompson, Tyrell Waite, Haydn Hollis and Romello Nangle.

For Donny, Gary Woods could return after missing out against Crewe and Rovers' right-back woes continue so expect James Husband to continue to deputize in that position.  Dave Syers is an outside chance for a comeback but I don't see why.  Furman and Lundstram are proving a very able central midfield partnership.

Not a straightforward task for the Rovers tomorrow, but their situation could not provide any more motivation to the team.  As long as nerves do not kick-in, I think they will do the job.

The referee is Philip Gibbs.  Gibbs has taken charge more often in the Championship of late, which is good news on such a vital fixture.  He has taken charge of matches involving both Donny and County this season.  The Donny game was against Stevenage at the Keepmoat back in September.  Five yellows were shown during that match while the County game, at Coventry in October resulted in just two yellows.  On average Mr Gibbs shows a modest 2.5 Yellow cards per game and has dismissed just three players in 37 matches this season.

Forum Corner

The Ghost has caught my eye for the second week running with his version of the Masterchef invention test (yeah - I like Masterchef).  Combine the promotion squad of 2007/08 with today's candidates to make the best squad.  Inventive!

But after acknowledging inventiveness, now I must fall out with the Ghost's choices.  No place for James Hayter (not even on the bench).  Tommy Spurr gets the nod against the sweet left foot of Gareth Roberts?  Neither Graham Lee nor Gordon Greer worth a place on the bench?  Some funny choices there!

There's also a debate on pitch invasions, which given the position Rovers are in, could be relevant.  John Ryan wants fans to stay off the grass while looking at the thread, the majority of fans do not agree.

I was threatened with a premature death by my dad were I to set foot on the Belle Vue turf as a lad and I've therefore grown up with the firm belief that the pitch is for players and match officials.  Not fans.  Clapping politely when if we win promotion?  Not at all!  Go nuts!  Go nuts in the stands but keep off the grass.  Failure to do so could result in some FL official deciding the club failed to control their fans and levying a fine.  Harsh?  Of course, but why take the risk?

Anyway, regardless - lets enjoy the day and hopefully, it will be a great day in Donny history!

Crewe Alexandra v Doncaster Rovers

Last Time Out...

No! No! No!  That's not what we wanted.  The Banana-skin that was Carlisle threw itself in our path and was duly stepped upon.

Plenty of possession for Donny in the early stages but only a couple of half chances fell for Kyle Bennett and Andy Griffin but still, for the first half-hour, it seemed Carlisle would be of little concern to the Rovers.  Against the run of play, Liam Noble put the Cumbrians a goal up.  It was a free-kick from about 30 yards that Noble attempted to hit into Gary Woods' top corner.  In the end a deflection off the Rovers' wall prevented that precise destination but in doing so, it wrong-footed Gary Woods and the visitors were ahead.

After the break, Donny did try to make amends.  A Cotterill corner was punched clear by Mark Gillespie in the Carlisle goal but only as far as Coppinger who hooked the ball back into the danger-area.  Chris Brown met it and Gillespie showed brilliant reactions to push the ball onto the bar. The rebound then hit Rob Jones and impossibly flew over the goal.  A little later and the woodwork saved Carlisle again from Brown.  A volley this time, from the edge of the area.  

Carlisle's turn to damage the Keepmoat paintwork.  This one was bizarre.  A shot from Jordan Mustoe that looped upwards before dropping onto the top of Gary Woods' bar.  Did he have it covered?  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.   Carlisle were now showing that to their credit, they were not just going to defend their slender lead.  A decent cross came to Andrew Welsh about 8 yards out.  Woods could only take the sting out of the shot and Tommy Spurr was required to complete the easy clearance from the goal-line.  

Carlisle got what their attacking deserved four minutes from the end of normal time.  Possession given away cheaply in the Cumbrians half and Liam Noble breaking.  Donny were logically committing players forwards looking to salvage something so there was little in the way of defence for Noble to beat.  He finished emphatically from the edge of the area with a powerful drive past Woods.

Rovers should have grabbed a consolation at the end.  Woods' long-clearance met by the head of Jones on the penalty spot but somehow placed wide of Gillespie's goal.  It was academic though.  The damage had been done.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 2 Carlisle United

Meanwhile...

King-makers, Crewe had a match on Wednesday night against our fellow-promotion challengers, Brentford but unfortunately they couldn't do us a favour.

Typically fast Brentford attacking gave them the lead after 12 minutes.  A clever back-heel from Clayton Donaldson found Shaleum Logan on the right-wing.  Logan accelerated and crossed to the middle of the area where Bradley Wright-Phillips headed past Steve Phillips.  Bentford were rampant.  A corner was headed powerfully against the Crewe bar by Harlee Dean with Donaldson not too far away with the rebound.  Wright-Phillips also brough a save from Steve Phillips although I don't know how much the Crewe 'keeper knew about it.  

Mark Tootle's effort from the edge of Brentford's area was the home-side's only attempt on the Brentford goal of the half.  It was decent and needed pushing around the post by Simon Moore.

Brentford continued their dominance in the second half.  Donaldson put a free-header over the bar before more good play on the corner of the Crewe area involving Jonathan Douglas resulted in the Bees second.  Douglas volleyed a pass over the defence to the inside-left position where substitute Marcello Trotta applied the finish.  

The evening could not have contrasted more with Crewe's triumph at Wembley on Sunday.  The home-side only managing two efforts in the 90 minutes.  Brentford, menacingly moving to third place, just two points from the automatic promotion places with a game in hand over the top two.

Crewe Alexandra 0 : 2 Brentford

Earlier this season...

Crewe proved themselves a very decent side when they visited the Keepmoat back in November.

It took just five minutes for on-loan Finnish striker Laurie Dalla-Valle to put the visitors ahead as he he latched onto a brilliant through-ball from Chuks Aneke to beat Gary Woods.  Crewe controlled the game impressively.  Woods had to be alert twice to keep Crewe from damaging the scoreline further while for Doncaster, Iain Hume was proving the main threat, if an inaccurate one.

Into the second half and Paul Keegan came closest to bringing Rovers back into the match.  Set up by Husband, he hammered a volley onto the underside of the Crewe bar.  Robbie Blake then brought a good save from Alan Martin and Hume nearly looped the rebound into the opposite top-corner  of the Crewe goal.

But Crewe were the better side on the day and they looked to have scored a second when  A free-kick was crossed into the box where Kelvin Mellor led a queue of Crewe forwards waiting to finish.  Gary Woods got a hand to his header but it was too good.  Fortunately the linesman ruled in Rovers' favour on a tight offside decision.

The second did come though.  Michael West's corner found Matthias Pogba on the far-post and his downward header beat Woods.  It was an impressive performance from Crewe and on the evidence of Sunday's JPT triumph, perhaps more in character  for them than Wednesday evening's showing.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 2 Crewe Alexandra

The Season so far...

14th placed Crewe aren't quite out of the play-off picture.  It's highly unlikely but with the stumbling form of the sides in front of them, I'd doubt if they have given up just yet.

You'd get about 17/1 for them achieving a play-off place so should you run down to the bookies now?  No.  Crewe have been a mid-table team all season.  Their best form was hit in December when they were the 5th best side in the league.  Their results against the top sides, many of whom they have still to play are nothing special.  Against top-half teams they rate 15th in the league.

...and so to the Game

Rovers have three matches to get two wins.  I am confident that should they do this, automatic promotion will follow.  What Rovers do not want is automatic promotion to still not be settled as they visit Brentford on the last day as it is likely that if this is the case, Brentford will be one of the sides still contesting these places.

Crewe, like Donny have been shot-shy all season.  In this respect, the sides are very similar (Donny average 8.98 shots per game, for Crewe the figure is 8.9).  The differences between the two sides is seen in the shots against column and its indicated by that Opponents Possession efficiency (Minutes possession / shot) statistic.  With 12.83 shots against them per match on average Crewe have faced more shots than any other team in the division.  The fact that Crewe's opponents possession efficiency has deteriorated further of late and Donny's is improving could indicate the way this one could go.  

I expect Rovers to go for this game and create a lot of chances.  The situation in the league demands a big performance from the leaders as the remaining matches become more and more important with every passing game.  

Crewe Goal Times

Where Crewe are good is in recovering points.  18 points this season have been picked up from losing situations.  Along with Brentford, they are the best in the division in this respect.  Looking at the goal distribution chart, it looks like opponents profit against Crewe early on and towards the end of games but expect Crewe to do better once past the first half-hour.

The team news is better for Rovers than it is for Crewe.  Top scorer Mathias Pogba is out for the remainder of the season and Luke Murphy, withdrawn after just 30 minutes on Wednesday evening, continues to nurse a groin injury.  He will be assessed before kick-off and his midfield partner Abdul Osman is suspended.

Goalkeeper Steve Phillips is another major doubt having suffered a dead-leg against Brentford while Kelvin Mellor is has a toe-injury that will again be assessed before kick-off.  Centre-back Adam Dugdale is definitely absent, on compassionate leave.

For Donny there is a problem at right-back.  Andy Griffin has back and thigh injuries that are being assessed and with Paul Quinn out, its not obvious who Bryan Flynn will chose on the right side of defence.  

Ex premier league ref Stuart Attwell takes charge of the game.  40 matches this season have resulted in 117 yellow cards this season (2.93 per game) and three reds.  

Forum Corner

Into the final three and its squeaky-bum time.  And after Tuesday, Rovers' bums were squeaking a bit more than they should have been.  Today could have been so much more pleasant.  Excepting Brentford, all results around Doncaster went for us and we could have been really looking at the finish-line going into this one.  Instead, whatever happens today, Rovers cannot assure an automatic promotion place.  The good news is of course that if we can't, nobody can.

My little, daft predictor based purely on points in the bag and last eight-match form has Donny still wining the title but by their winnet!

Looking at the Forums and Belle-Vue Ghost feels sick.  I've been feeling great.  I'm still confident Rovers can do it.  But then I read that thread and was reminded about Cheltenham in our last season in League 1.  Thanks for that.  I feel sick!  I remain positive but it's nervy.

Lets just hope Donny can remain Ice Cold at Alex!

Enjoy the match everyone.