Reading v Doncaster Rovers

What with no proper football over the last two weeks, I really don't have any excuse than to take a closer look at how we're doing.  I mean, would you expect any less of me?

The important thing, I think we can all agree is getting as many points as you can per game, so I used that as my basis stat.  I then looked at the relationships between points per game and 4 attacking stats.

• Goals per Game For
• Shots on Target per Game For (including Goals)
• Shots per Game For
• Possession Effectiveness For (Minutes possession per shot)

Finally I looked at the same relationships but for the equivalent defensive stat (just take the word "For" in the list above and replace with "Against")

I discovered two things.  First of all, unsurprisingly, the list there is in the order of most important statistic to least important statistic.  Yep, I've just told you that if a team scores goals but doesn't concede goals, they win football games.  And you thought I didn't know my stuff!

The second point is slightly more insightful.  In all cases, the defensive stat is more closely related to the number of points a team is winning per game than the corresponding attacking stat.  So, note to managers - get your defences sorted out!

Defensive Stats

Theres the league table in terms of points per game, QPR top by virtue of being equal on points with Burnley having played one game fewer.  QPR are ranked 2nd in terms of Goals conceded per game, first for shots (on target or otherwise) against per game and 2nd on possession effectiveness.

That's the table explained so look at Donny.  A creditable 15th overall, and 9th best in terms of goals conceded.  But they do concede lots of shots against and shots on target against - a few too many in fact.  So, among the reasons we are doing OK would seem to be a good 'keeper and a defence able to block shots and get their bodies in the way.

Our opponents today Reading?  Also very miserly in terms of goals conceded and looking at the very large numbers of shots against per game in comparison with - well everybody actually they do this in a similar way to Rovers - only more so!

Attacking Stats

But attacking is important too so there's the table of attacking stats.

Donny, as I've said all season are good at moving the ball into shooting positions when they get it.  The rest of the stats are more or less where you would expect them to be for a team in Rovers' league position.

As for Reading, well all their attacking stats are worse than their league position would suggest.  I have a feeling this side spends quite a lot of time on the ball without doing too much with it.

So a final message to both sides - give Alex McCarthy (not Adam Federici?) and Ross Turnbull a good reception today.  It looks like the pair of them are keeping our teams higher in the league than they possibly would be.

Last Time Out...

Danish for the Day!

I was Danish for the Day

I know I was

I'm sure I was

I was Danish for the Day!

Actually, Kasper Schmeichel has completely screwed up my Stats.  I work out things like shooting efficiency by classing goals as shots on target.  That's fine until clowns start throwing corner kicks into their own goals - then the assumption that a goal comes from a shot kinda stops working and my stat loses a bit of accuracy.

Tell you what though.  I'll forgive him this once.  And maybe again if he chooses to do the same thing on the last game of the season.

So a bit fortunate to come away with the points?  Perhaps, but that's not to say it wasn't a deserved victory.  Shortly after the goal, Theo Robinson and Dean Furman both had Schmeichel showing more typical behaviour and in the second half, but for last ditch tackling, Chris Brown would have been on the score sheet.

At the other end, sure Dave Nugent was having an off-day and Jamie Vardy did have Ross Turnbull beaten and the ball cannoning off the post.  But the defence, and Rob Jones in particular were massive. Leicester were averaging 14 shots per game before Rovers met them.  Holding them to just 10 was a great defensive effort.

Meanwhile...

Reading were also faced with a tough task with an away tie at League leaders Burnley.  But for Reading, it didn't go as well.

Which ever way you look at it, dominating possession but still allowing your opponents 23 shots (including the two goals) can't be recommended.  Nor can only getting in 8 shots with all that possession when spending the majority of the game 1:0 down.

I think Burnley's first goal was one  that the Royal's centre-backs will want to forget.  Sean Morrison had allowed Danny Ings to sneak in behind him to score the goal but the major crime at the back was Alex Pearce's very half-hearted attempt to get his head to Kieren Trippier's cross.  

Burnley were pretty much shoot on sight in the first half with a flurry of successive chances.  But Reading would be disappointed.  Throughout the game, their midfield looked to be losing the ball a little too easily.  Ings in particular was profiting and on another day, he would have had his hat-trick.

So, when Burnley doubled their lead in the 80th minute, it was fully deserved.  Danny Ings turned provider on this occasion and slipped Sam Vokes in behind Reading's offside trap for him to slide the ball under McCarthy.

Reading came back though and it was another own goal to screw up my stats.  On this occasion no howler though.  A cross parried straight onto Jason Shackell's knee and ricocheted into the net.

At this point Reading looked to gain a late sense of urgency and had a couple of chances but it was a good and deserved victory for the home side.

For Reading, Alex McCarthy was impressive but he had to be.  Sloppiness in the midfield was allowing Burnley to attack at will, particularly in the first half.  The only impression I got of Reading's attacking was Chris Gunter's ability to get forward.  He looked dangerous on the right.

So what will happen...

Difficult to say.  I thought it would be the case of a possession side against a side that likes to play on the counter but not really.  Curiously, Reading at home do not keep possession as well as Reading away.  So with Donny wanting to play on the counter, Reading may look to do the same.  That should make it quite exciting.

Billy Sharp and Adam Le Fondre looks a tasty combination up from for the Royals while Donny are missing Kiko Macheda.  Chris Brown, I'm sure will be his normal awesome self leading Donny's line and without Macheda, Theo Robinson is going to have to return to the form he showed just after he signed.

Looking forward to it - Enjoy the match everyone!

Doncaster Rovers v Leicester City

Last Time Out...

Yeah...it was a tough ask, playing against a side who were going to go top if they were victorious.  Maybe they are only top because QPR didn't play on Tuesday.  But there is no doubt that Rovers were facing a side that were both good and in form.  Add to that the geography of going to the top of the table and you have a tough ask.

It wasn't all bad for Donny though.  Arguably they had the better of the first half right until a rather rash Jason Shackell challenge on Sam Vokes gave Burnley a penalty on half time.  

It was Rob Jones?  Commentator said it was Jason Shackell.  Would I prefer it to have been Jason?  Sorry Rob, you are the man - you feature on my backgrounds for Pete's sake but if I could swap you for Jason Shackell - I would.

Anyway, Vokes sent Turnbull the wrong way and Paul Dickov was no doubt re-draughting his half time chat.  

The second half was a much more one-sided affair, sadly.  Burnley demonstrated why they are where they are in the table and Rob Jones demonstrated why on the night had he been thrown into a barrel full of tits, he'd be the one who would be fished out sucking a dummy.  The one great thing he did all night, a fabulous goal line clearance of Michael Kightley's cross in combination with James Husband, was credited to Mr. Shackell;  he then put a header that you'd normally bet on him to score over the bar; (no credit to anyone for that - BBC commentator obviously told it wasn't Shackell but they didn't know who it was) and finally, just when the Beeb get their facts right about Jones, he puts past his own 'keeper.  I've had those kind of days Rob.  I recommend Vodka!

On the stats, well 3.78 minutes possession per shot is still very healthy and I like the fact we are getting more on target.  So, not all bad.

Meanwhile...

Leicester were down at our fellow co-promotees, Yeovil and they were beating them so helping Rovers to maintain their position as the highest ranking side promoted into the league since the advent of automatic promotion / relegation to and from the fourth flight.

But have a look at those in-game stats and you see that on the night there wasn't so much between Yeovil and Leicester.  And 40 shots over the 90 minutes!  It looks like there was some decent entertainment to be had at Huish Park on Tuesday night.

For Yeovil, I think it may have been a case of throwing a little caution to the wind.  They are still without a point at home this season and the third-placed club was coming to town.  The worst that would happen is what was expected to happen.

So the game was open and even.  Yeovil very happy to give it a go but Leicester equally happy to pick them off by breaking quickly.  It was the quick breaking that was eye-catching for me.  Andy King, who was playing his 200th league game (he seems to have been around longer than that)  and Lloyd Dyer look particularly effective in the Leicester midfield in this respect.  But like those scraps 5 year olds have, when they go "windmilling" at each other not a lot was on target and nobody got hurt in the first 45 minutes.  All very entertaining for all that.

So into the second 45 and Antony Knockaert became the first to show that there was serious threat in the Leicester attacks just not quite enough curl on his shot after good work from Lloyd Dyer on the left.   It was a prelude to the first goal, which came from another very fast Leicester break.  David Nugent picked up the ball on the left and carried before seeing Dyer charging through the middle.  A simple ball and a confident finish ended an excellent move.

Yeovil scrapped back and came very close to scoring from a corner when Shane Duffy headed wide.    But those Leicester breaks were still a threat.  One of them, down the right saw Ritchie De Laet advance into the are and then cut in.  He beat Danny Seabourne who stuck out a leg behind him to trip the full back.  The penalty was smashed down the middle by David Nugent and Leicester had some comfort.  More Yeovil attacking came with Paddy Madden putting a free-kick just wide of the right post  before  the penalty count was evened up.  Madden flicked a ball on and Ed Upson just beat Liam Moore to it.  Moore tripped him and James Hayter put away the penalty.  It made for an exciting finish but in the end proved to be only a little consolation.

So what will happen?

Another tough ask for Donny.  The stats show that their ability to play on the break is somewhat less at home than it is away.  Not surprising really as home sides are always under more pressure to come out and attack.  That's not breaking.  Leicester on the other hand do look to be a fast breaking side and I think we can expect them to put the onus on the home side to attack them.  The counter does look their best game.

It should be entertaining though.  Leicester aren't anything like the best at limiting opponents shooting opportunities so there could be something in this for Donny.  We just need to have learned from Tuesday's experiences and be a little less naive with the defending.