Rovers v Robins

Last Time Out...

A trip to troubled Coventry was never going to be easy and so it proved. The Sky Blues, reeling from a 10 point penalty for entering administration and suffering the ignominy of having to keep the Rovers informed about where the match would be played certainly had some pride to demonstrate to the fans.

In the first half, Coventry set about Rovers in much the same way as they had set about them at the Keepmoat. Rovers were being pulled all over the park in the opening minutes particularly struggling on their left-hand side. It was no surprise when Cyrus Christie received a long pass on the right wing, advanced and cut in past James Husband before finishing in a way not associated with right-backs.

Rovers had their first opportunity in the 24th minute with James Husband's deflected shot ballooning up only to be pushed around Joe Murphy's post. But Coventry, and especially Carl Baker were bossing the midfield and seemingly creating chances at will. Rovers did improve towards half time, but only really in terms of limiting Coventry a little more rather than playing themselves. Half time came with the home side a goal to the good and with 12 shots to Rovers' 4.

A substitution at half time that, credit to the Rovers' Player commentary team they called, improved Rovers lot greratly. James Husband was withdrawn in favour of Dean Furman. With the midfield strengthened, Rovers were able to have more influence in the game and Joe Murphy needed to be at his best. Cotterill was twice denied by the ex-Scunthorpe 'keeper while Furman and McCoombe both spurned close-range chances. The woodwork was rattled from range by Furman before Cotterill was denied a further twice, first by the legs of Murphy and then when Aaron Martin pulled off a spectacular goal-line clearance.

Lots of effort from Rovers in the second half, but they couldn't get the goal and the pack has closed.

Coventry City 1 : 0 Doncaster Rovers

Meanwhile...

Swindon had what on paper was an easier task against relegation threatened Oldham at the County Ground. But relegation threatened sides are never the easiest especially when relegation remains merely a threat.

Dean Parrett for Swindon, showed great strength to fight off his man early on. His cross found its way to Massimo Luongo, making his Robins' debut but he wasn't able to finish the chance due good pressure from the Oldham defence and a good save from Dean Bouzanzis. With their next chance, Swindon should have taken the lead. Andy Williams' effort was pushed out into the path of Gary Roberts who with a virtually open goal, hit the post.

Into the second half and Andy Williams again missed a good chance, curling his effort around the post when clean through on the Oldham goal.

Oldham then had a spell of their own. A long goal-kick found its way onto the right wing and Wesley Foderingham made a mess of clearing the danger, instead becoming stranded outside of his penalty area. But Oldham couldn't find the cross they needed and the ball was scrambled away. Lee Barnard put an effort wide before doing better when a cross from Lee Croft found him unmarked in the penalty area. Oldham were in front but not for long.

Adam Rooney, who had come on as a substitute connected perfectly with a overhead kick to finish in a manner in which his more illustrious namesake would be proud. Rooney, playing the impact substitute perfectly, excepting that he couldn't get a second goal had two further chances as Swindon went for the winner.

They didn't get it though and so could not take the second place in the table that the win was offering.

Swindon Town 1 : 1 Oldham Athletic

Earlier this Season...

At the County Ground, Rovers put in one of the away performances that's put them where they are this season. Not spectacular in any way but determined and as a result they got something from the game.

Indeed the ESPN report of the match states that "Doncaster held on for a point they scarcely deserved". True? Perhaps, but Rovers have received comments like that all season. There comes a time when it ceases to be lucky.

Just 8 minutes had gone before Swindon had the lead. Matt Ritchie was picked out in the middle, unmarked by Andy Williams and it was 1 : 0. Just two minutes later, James Husband drove a cross that Danny Hollands could only put  past his own 'Keeper.

The first half continued frantically. Iain Hume had an effort saved by Wes Foderingham but more was happening at the other end. Chris Martin put a header onto the post and Gary Woods did very well to save the rebound. The woodwork rescued Rovers again, this time it was Andy Williams who had to watch as the crossbar kept out his effort.

The first half produced the better of the action and while Swindon were always in the ascendency in the second, they found the Rovers defence in determined mood.

Swindon Town 1 : 1 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so far...

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are looking at the team that has scored more goals than anyone else in this division. They've also conceded fewer than anyone else in this league. So why aren't they running away with it?

Part of the explanation lies in an extraordinary four-game run that the Robins put together in December/January. It started the match after they played the Rovers so maybe we did get lucky! 

Against Oldham, Tranmere, Portsmouth and Carlisle Swindon scored 16 goals without reply. All in all, Swindon have put four or more past their opponents on five occasions. If you do that, you build a goal difference. You also build the respect of your opponents as they realize what could happen to them.

The story of the season for Swindon had been strings of strong wins punctuated by more inconsistent form. As a result they've bubbled around the play-off places. They hit the the top for just the one match but everyone in the division is clear that this is possibly the most dangerous team in the league.

Swindon season high: 1st (February)

Swindon season low: 18th (August - after the first game)

...and so to the Game

Swindon have suffered a small dip in their form of late. Their last 8 fixtures only put them in 16th place in the form tables and their home form reduces them to 22nd. Unfortunately for Rovers, on their last 5 road-trips Swindon have shown the best form in the league.

As far as players are concerned, Matt Ritchie moved allegedly sold behind manager, Paolo Di Canio's back, an incident that proved to be the last straw for the fiery Italian. The rest of those players are still at the club though and from what I saw, Andy Williams certainly looks like a striker who could cause some difficulties.

The stats show that Swindon score their goals by creating lots of chances rather than by being particularly clinical with the chances they do create. Rovers, on the other hand tend to bide their time more, producing fewer chances but converting them more often. That's the theory anyway. In practice we haven't been as clinical in front of goal at the Keepmoat as we have elsewhere.

Swindon Goal Times

Unusually, the goal time charts show Swindon generally getting meaner as the game goes on. Normally more goals happen later in games as teams "go for broke" to try to get a result. Swindon's defence has reversed this trend so far this season and look to be able to weather any storms.

Doncaster Goal Times

It's a tie with a lot at stake in a league that remains ridiculously tight. For me it's going to be a little like the Coventry game. To win, Rovers first have to limit Swindon's attacking such that they are not able to gain a shooting opportunity every 3 minutes of possession. If they can do that, they can look at playing themselves. Against Coventry, Donny started unable to control their opponents and through the game gained control and then gave their opponents something to think about. They have to do the same against Swindon, but it must happen more quickly.

Forum Corner

Disastrous! Was one fan's reaction to the defeat at Coventry on Good Friday. Some fans do have a penchant for drama. I don't see how a disastrous result can leave you in the same league position as when you started the game, especially when that league position in first place.

Happily, other fans have a penchant for perspective. Billy Stubbs' Tears "reasons to be cheerful thread" sums up the situation perfectly. In short, the pack have closed, but the pack like us have difficult looking run-ins. We come into this period in the best possible position. With their games in hand we could be overtaken by Sheffield United or Brentford but the way this league has been, points in the bag have even more value over games in hand.

I'd also like to mention the VSC's fund raising efforts for former Rovers' hero Iain Duerden. For the Swindon fans, Iain was our top striker in our conference days and is now a fireman in Norfolk. His son, Oliver has a rare genetic disorder and requires a specially modified wheelchair. The VSC has been raising money to fund this and there will be a presentation made to him at today's game where he is guest of honour. It's nice when a club can give something back to a former player, especially one who will not have made thousands out of the game.

Onto Swindon Town's boards and the first thing I loved was this message as I registered for the Town End Forum

These people sound like my type of people!  

Looking around, I found a thread that was trying to forecast the outcome of League 1 this season.  The thread first predicted points required to finish first, second and sixth based on history and then looked at the performance of the lading sides to try to forecast where they would finish.  All this started after 33 games (or so) when 3 points covered the top 6.  Updated after 37 games, it looked a wee bit better for Donny, but the author ( DV Canio) admitted it was anyone's for the taking.

Challenge accepted, as a Donny statto I went for it and quite foolishly have wasted the afternoon on various models.  After correlating and comparing performance I came to the common-sense conclusion that a 46 game marathon has been turned into a 5 to 8 game sprint (depending on which team you are looking at).

So here's how it looks at the moment using the past 8 game's form to model the performance up to the last day.

Do I think it will end up like that?  No, not really.  I think Donny will win the title as I've said since December.  My basis for saying that is over the season, Donny have proved the most consistent of the teams in contention.  Thing is though, now we've all managed to turn it into a sprint, hat consistency counts for less.  The sides that can sprint to the line will be victorious.  Lets hope Donny are one of them.

Enjoy the game everyone.

Posted with Blogsy

Coventry City v Doncaster Rovers

Last Time out...

Rovers got the result they wanted but in the end were made to sweat a bit.

It started off well enough with yet another assist for David Cotterill. This one wasn't typical though. Cotterill has played many better crosses into the area this season but on this occasion David Mirfin under no real pressure put through his own net. Further chances went Rovers' way without really testing Erik Johansen until Rob Jones brought a good save from him from Cotterill's corner. It was all Rovers though and on 40 minutes Jones' excellent through ball allowed Iain Hume to slip in behind the home defence and finish coolly.

A two-nil lead at half time would have been no less than the visitors deserved, but it wasn't to be. Mark Duffy struck a great free kick from about 30 yards into Gary Woods' top-left corner.

Into the second half and a really intricate passing move looked like it had been wasted when Chris Brown's over hit his cross onto the left wing, but Rovers weren't finished with this move. Husband and Spurr worked the ball to Hume. His ball into the 6-yard box gave Brown an easy chance to atone for the poor original cross.

Rovers continued to press but couldn't get the goal that would surely have ended Scunthorpe's resistance. Instead a short-corner for the Iron was crossed for Karl Hawley to scramble the ball home in the 85th minute after the post had denied Andy Barcam. A few bitten nails for the Rovers' faithful in the end, but they held on for a deserved win.

Scunthorpe United 2 : 3 Doncaster Rovers

Meanwhile...

There was a battle going on between two of the largest League 1 teams, and two of the most troubled at Fratton Park. After 7 minutes the referee awarded a soft penalty when Cody McDonald was adjudged to have been pulled back as he passed Shaun Cooper. Gary McSheffery is normally reliable from the spot but on this occasion his kick was well saved by Simon Eastwood. The resulting corner also had the home fans' pulses racing with McSheffery once again involved, but the ball was scrambled away.

On 15 minutes, Portsmouth took the lead after a nice flowing move. Jed Wallace finished it by getting on the end of Cooper's cross with the sky blues looking a little slow to react.

Coventry certainly tested Simon Eastwood in the second half. Franck Moussa and Cody McDonald both being denied by Pompey's 'keeper. But despite Coventry being the better team in the second half, Patrick Agyemang scored a second goal for Pompey in the 76th minute. He did well too, employing great strength to flick a header past Joe Murphy.

Coventry kept going but unfortunately, they had found Eastwood in great form in the Pompey goal on the day and couldn't get back into the game.

Portsmouth 2 : 0 Coventry City

Earlier this season...

At the Keepmoat, the Sky Blues gave Donny a football lesson, inflicting the Rovers' heaviest defeat of the season. It was an entertaining game from start to finish with the Isidore always looking the more accomplished.

Gary McSheffery caused chaos in the Rovers back four in the third minute before finding Franck Moussa who hit an unstoppable finish to give the visitors an early lead. Hume had two opportunities to equalize, one hit wide when he should have done better and another well saved when he attempted to lob Joe Murphy.

But it was Coventry who demonstrated how it should be done with Donny showing how it shouldn't. Blair Adams' dangerous cross was made easy for David McGoldrick to finish due to slack marking by the home side. McGoldrick should have given Coventry a three-nil lead before the break when the visitors counted quickly after Rovers lost possession, but he shot wide with just Gary Woods to beat.

After the break, McGoldrick did score his second and Coventry's third. A cross from the right found him unmarked again in a position where missing the target would have been difficult. Chris Brown gave Rovers the slightest glimmer of hope by heading in from close range after an excellent Paynter header had come off the bar. However, if the goal did anything, it motivated Coventry. They continued to look a very good team coming forwards and eventually got their reward through Adam Barton's great curling effort from the edge of the area.

Doncaster Rovers 1 : 4 Coventry City

The Season so far...

Rovers fans (me included) have bitched about our the manner of our relegation last season, but when you look at the fates of our companions in relegation, it seems we've come off lightly.

Administration has now put paid to any play-off hope the Sky-Blues may have had but on the plus-side, it won't cost them a second relegation. However, I feel for the Coventry fans as they face an uncertain future.

After a terrible start to the season, which saw them winning just six points in the first two months and drop to second-bottom, Coventry found their feet. They steadily improved toward the end of 2012 finishing the year as the best form-side in December. But since then, Coventry have been inconsistent. Leading to their falling slightly.

Coventry Season High: 7th (end of January)

Coventry Season Low: 23rd (September)

...and so to the Game

Donny are five points clear of the play-offs with an Easter program ahead that could all but assure a quick return to the championship. The last time we had a definitive Easter ahead of us, it didn't go to plan. Then we were looking at a shot at getting into the premier league via the play-offs. Two wins were needed to push Blackpool out of the play-off places, sadly, two defeats followed, first to Plymouth Argyle and then to Balckpool themselves.

I don't think it will be the same this time. Plymouth, back then were still scrapping for survival and Blackpool obviously had promotion on their agenda. Coventry, on this occasion are just playing for pride but after the events of this week, pride could be quite a motivator.

Coventry Goal Time Distribution

Doncaster Goal Time Distribution

The goal time distribute charts look remarkably similar, just Donny looking better before half time. It certainly doesn't look like a game where you'd want to be sneaking out to get the early train.

 Carl Baker, being considered for his first match since undergoing hernia-surgery and unsurprisingly Franck Moussa look like players to watch, with David McGoldrick being the man to convert any chances, as we found out in December. David Bell also returns to contention after illness. Steven Jennings is a doubt after picking up an injury against Portsmouth and Jordan Willis misses out after picking up injury playing u21 in the week.

Donny will miss an in form Paul Quinn due to a bereavement in his family but otherwise there are no new absentees. Cameron Howieson is back unscathed after international duty with the Maoris and although Dean Furman did pick up a facial injury while playing for South Africa, he has been cleared to play.

Mark Halsey will take charge of proceedings on Good Friday. It seems the premier league referee is being punished for failing to punish Callum McManaman's horror challenge on Massadio Haidara last weekend. The premier league's loss is our gain! Halsey has only taken charge of Premier League and Championship matches so far this season. He's awarded 57 yellow and 3 red cards in the process.

Forum Corner

It's a horrible situation for Sky Blue fans as it seems once again, the owners of a football club have behaved, and have been allowed to behave irresponsibly for years. Administration has come due to stadium owners, ACL pressing for payment of £1.3M in rent arrears. But that's the tip of an ugly iceberg for Coventry with debts of £60M being reported. So enter the football league with the first sanctions taken by them against the irresponsibility of the club owners and the deduction of 10 points. Stable doors and horses come to mind.

In trying to understand more about Coventry, I googled SISU. Apparently it's a Finnish term that embodies the country. Loosely translated it means "strength of will, determination, perseverance, and acting rationally in the face of adversity". Is that ironic or reassuring? I'm certainly not sure a hedge-fund's name should be associated in any way with adversity. In the end, I gave up. Coventry are not my club and besides, football fans shouldn't have to battle with understanding hedge-funds. They should be talking about what the club needs to do to win at the weekend.

On that subject, most Coventry fans aren't too hopeful predicting defeat with the club in disarray.

On the Donny boards and there's some incredulity that league 1's top ten players of the year contains no Rovers players. It's quite an achievement for a team that has topped the table for the last seven matches and for 15 matches before that remained within 3 points of the top position. How do David Cotterill's 10 goals, many of them spectacular and 18 assists go un-noticed by league 1's managers? I suppose he hasn't quite directly contributed to 50% of Rovers' goals this season (the figure is 49%) so what about Rob Jones? A meagre 7 goals and single assist (really?) from Centre back can't be bad can it? No small measure of leadership from the big man either! I wonder on what criteria the managers based their decision.

Like the reasons Coventry have ended up the way they are, I'm sure it's another thing the fans will never find out.

Enjoy the game everyone.

Posted with Blogsy

Rovers v Pompey

Last Time out...

With a cold snap sadly putting paid to midweek football, it gives me chance to congratulate the Rovers for a great result on the South Coast.  I feared the worst to be honest.  After the awful performance against MK Dons; injury news apparently getting worse by the day and Bournemouth hungry for a win to get back into the play-off places, I was almost happy that I couldn't listen to the game properly.  Winterthur were playing away in St. Gallen and I was on my way there.  A tip I picked up on the VSC, to download Puffin Web browser on my phone to listen to Rovers' player on the move allowed me to pick up about half of Glen Wilson's excellent commentary as I travelled into wild St. Gallen for Winti's clash with FC Wil.

It sounded a great game and looking at the highlights, it was.  Rovers rode their luck at times.  Most obviously when Steve Cook rattled the crossbar early on and when with just about the last kick of the game, Brett Pitman struck the post.

But there was plenty that wasn't lucky too.  First of all, Neil Sullivan showing everyone that should it be necessary, he can still pull on a shirt and do Donny proud.  Several good saves from the veteran on the day and I have to say, over all the seasons he's represented Donny, surely he is one of Sean O'Driscoll's best signings.

Through my journey through intermittently great and poor reception, I was lucky enough to be in St. Gallen's AFG Arena with it's excellent reception for all of the goals.  Billy Paynter's conversion of Cotterill's cross received a "Come on Donchaster" from the Winti faithful (I know, I've got a couple of things to teach them).  When Jamie McCoombe sold Sully disastrously short to allow Matt Tubbs' lob, they didn't notice my disappointment.  They didn't have time as James Husband went straight down the other end and smacked in that volley.  The teams in St. Gallen had just come out and I was leaping about like a looney!  It really set me up for Winti's match.

Unfortunately, they lost 1 : 0.  It was an awful game which just goes to show, you really can't have everything.

AFC Bournemouth 1 : 2 Doncaster Rovers 

FC Wil 1 : 0  FC Winterthur 

Meanwhile...

By having a fixture South of the Tropic of Sheffield, Pompey did manage to get in a mid-week match at Leyton Orient.

A little like Donny on Saturday, Pompey conceded due to an awful backpass from Dan Butler.  The only player who was going to get that ball was Orient's Shaun Batt and his finish was excellent, beating Simon Eastwood from the edge of the area.  But unlike Donny, the goal proved terminal for the South coast club.  

It was hard luck on them.  Jed Wallace was lively in the first half and had two efforts, the first easy for Orient's Jamie Jones to gather at the second attempt, the second saved by the Orient 'keeper's feet.

Orient registered just one chance in the first half, but it was decent.  Eastwood needed to be at full stretch to deny Craig Fagan from range.

After going behind, there was plenty of endeavor from Pompey but without return.  Possibly unfortunate in the end, but it was another defeat.

Leyton Orient 1 : 0 Portsmouth

Earlier This Season...

Iain Hume's 24th minute strike was enough to give Donny all three points at Fratton Park back in November.  I'd guess the Pompey faithful would say that Donny got lucky that day.  My response would be that we have won that way away from home all season.  There comes a point where it stops being luck.

Hume's goal was the highlight of a dull first half but Pompey were more lively in the second.  Mendez Laing was lively throughout and Pompey had a great chance to equalize as Lee Williamson miscued when in on goal from Laing's cross.  Donny then nearly made it two.  Mikkel Andersen saving brilliantly from Rob Jones.  Izale Macleod and Gabor Geypes then spurned further chances to give Portsmouth a point as Rover's away run continued.

Portsmouth 0 : 1 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so Far...

There's been no love lost between Pompey and Donny of late.  It started with the petulance of Steve Cotterill at the Keepmoat and escalated with a combination of Dave Kitson's cheating and the referee's incompetence finally condemning Rovers to relegation from the championship at Pompey's hands.  Do you know, I actually forgot Kitson's name when writing that!  I bloody loved that!  I googled Ginner Tw*t Sheffield United - that found him!

Anyway, no Cotterill, no Kitson and no idiot so truce!  Pompey fans are among the best in the country and they are not responsible for the idiocy with which their club has been run.  There is a long list of people responsible for that, including the football league.  I've looked on this season at times astounded by what has been allowed.

But sadly, it looks like Pompey are going to suffer a second successive relegation down to the fourth tier.  Being eight points from safety, eight games remaining and a minus 10 point penalty looming it looks pretty hopeless.  Sad, but it will be a long time since the bottom tier of the football league has seen the like when the Pompey fans go on their travels down there.

Portsmouth Season High: 10th (August - after the first game)

Portsmouth Season Low: 24th (February)

...and so to the game

Much though I'd like it to be a wholly one-sided affair at the Keepmoat, I can't see it going that way.   Don't get me wrong, Donny should win and I think they will, but a look at those stats shows Pompey have tightened things up of late reducing goals conceded by a goal per game.

But Donny have also improved at home, well at least defensively, halving what they have been conceding of late.  Interestingly, home and away form since Brian Flynn's reign started have become much more comparable.  Unfortunately, away form has deteriorated to do this but happily, home form has picked up to meet it somewhere in the middle.

Doncaster Rovers

Portsmouth

Looking at the goal times this season, for both sides, a lot happens in the last 15 minutes of the game.  The other point to note, how is looks like it all goes wrong for Pompey around half time.

For Donny, loan signing Dean Furman will come into the squad, which is welcome with so many midfielders out injured.  Gary Woods continues to struggle with his thigh injury so Neil Sullivan will continue as his very able deputy.

Pompey should have Jon Akinde back after a virus laid him low for the last two matches.

Tony Harrington will take charge of the game.  Harrington has taken 20 games this season, the first 11 of which were in League 2.  He then moved up the leagues taking 7 games at this level.  Add two matches in cup competitions and you get to the 20.  2.6 yellow cards per game is about average and 5 players have taken an early bath at Harrington's behest this season.

Forum Corner

Being a bit of a statto (does it show), just for Pompey, I'll re-quote Dutch Uncle's stat from a few weeks ago.  This season will be the first time ever Pompey will finish below the likes of Doncaster in the league.  There.  Now that's off my chest, I picked up today on another statty thread.

The Top 5 Most Valuable Players in DFP tells us that the Donny Free Press, printed a list of the players in order of the highest wins to starts ratio.  In these terms, the article lists the top 5 most valuable Rovers players with the "surprising" result that James Harper and Kyle Bennett are in positions four and five.  James Coppinger, who's return to Donny has been heralded by most, is Donny's least valuable player according to this "analysis".

And that's the point really.  Its not an analysis, it's a list.  You want to analyze?  Well the first thing that's needed is the understanding as to whether the win ratio of games where (say) Harper started is significantly different to the average.  There are statistical tests to determine this and the result of the test answers the question posted by MachoMadness.  i.e. Does the fact that in these terms Harper is the fourth most valuable Rovers' player in mean anything, or is it just coincidental?  You see, you have to go a tic further than just making a list.

Another alternative (or you could do it as well), would be to look at Harper's contribution to games in terms of in-game Stats.  This is looking at what he actually does.  How many passes does he complete, how many tackles, how many shots etc.  In other words, go the extra yard and try to explain why he is number 4 in that table.  If you can't, it's coincidence.

Its a shame really that people try to pass off producing such tables as statistics.  It gives the stattos with genuine skill a bad name and causes the ill-informed to trot out that time-served adage "you can prove or disprove anything with statistics". 

When I looked at the Pompey bulletin board, the first thing I noticed was the subject matter of the first articles.  We had the deployment of missiles to Alaska by the US; Musicians Corner; Red Nose Day; New Zealand v England; The Pope....in fact I went 14 articles down from the stickies before I found something football related!  And that thread was about Jon Harley signing for Maidstone United!

So this thread could be touching a nerve eh?  Never mind.  I assure you this is not intended.  Enjoy your trip to Donny and good luck in finally sorting things out at Fratton Park.  

Enjoy the game everyone.

Cherries v Rovers

Last Time Out...

Consistently inconsistent - that's what I want to talk about.  I don't want to talk about the match on Tuesday and I certainly don't want to have to watch the highlights.  It was bad enough listening to the smegger!  So, I'm going to try and do this without watching the lowlights of Tuesday.  I hope I manage it.  I'm in a really good mood at the moment and I don't see the point in spoiling that by watching a match where Rovers managed a season-low two shots on goal in the 90 minutes.

The thing is, the previous two matches saw us do exceptionally well.  First of all we won (always good) and second of all, we deserved to win.  To give you an idea of how much we deserved to win, look at the chart below.  In the two matches in question, we were much better than "Normal business".  These were the matches against Shrewsbury (A) and Hartlepool (H).

What you're looking at there is the shot difference each game.  If it's positive, Rovers had more shots than their opponents.  If it's negative, our opponents got more shots in than us.  On the horizontal axis, you can see if Donny won, drew or lost.

Now, if you're still awake, the dashed lines show what I'd call "normal business".  Based on Donny's performances, that's where the shot difference would be in 66% of games (not far out is it?).

This is the interesting bit (promise).  The first ringed game should be the match that we won and all you guys as fans asked "How did we win that?".  It's Tranmere away (they won 21 corners to our 1).  The second ring is a match that we lost and you guys would be asking "wtf happened there?"  It was Bury - away, which I think of as the start of our inconsistency.  

The next two ringed results are games we drew.....somehow (MK Dons at home and Crawley away).  Get the picture - No? - Never mind.

The point is look at how unstable the last 8 matches have been.  Bryan Flynn has been in charge for 10 games.  See what happens when you change your manager unnecessarily from a club perspective?

That incidentally, is not an attack on Flynn or the club.  When Saunders left, we were in second place, obviously with no intention of changing the manager.  In Flynn, we sought continuity.  A very reasonable aim when you're sitting second in the table.  But a change at the top makes a team unsure.  At the moment that instability is becoming more unstable.  There's one of those annoying football clichés "steadying the ship".  It's what Flynn must do.

Have I got away without watching the lowlights?  - Glad you think so!  Whatever you think or however confused you are, somehow we are still top.  But we've signed Mark Wilson, which obviously means we don't want to get promoted.  I'll deal with this point later! 

Meanwhile...

Our opponents on Saturday had their last match on Saturday.  Funny that.  How much more confident would Rovers be were their last game on Saturday.  Anyway, the first piece of action I saw on the highlights was a good ball out of midfield being just kept in play by David Mooney who pulled back for Charlie McDonald to have the simplest of tap-ins.  If you're not a Bournemouth fan, you would have noticed that every player mentioned plays for Orient.  Slack marking all around, simple white-flag attitude from Danny Seaborne (to be fair, everyone else gave up before him) and you understand why Orient took the lead.  

After a few chances themselves (one off the under-side of the bar) McDonald was left similarly slack-marked to make it two for Orient.  He had a little more to do this time, but not much.  He'd beaten the offside trap as he received the ball so as long as he stayed one step ahead he was always favourite to score, which he did.

Josh McQuaid crossed for Brett Pittman to give a great test for Jamie Jones, which he passed with flying colours, but Pittman, who'd threatened throughout wasn't to be denied.  Eunan O'Kane picked him out with a fine cross to the far corner of the 6-yard box and Bournemouth were making a game of it.  

But Kevin Lisbie killed the game, finishing from the middle of the penalty area after a fine O's move.

Bournemouth look like they can play.  They don't look like they know how to defend.

Leyton Orient 3 : 1 Bournemouth

Earlier this Season...

Donny were fair and squarely beaten by the Cherries at the Keepmoat.  Just before half-time, Harry Arter lost his man and made it 0:1 to the visitors.  It was one of those days for Donny.  Rovers efforts on goal meant David James didn't need to break sweat, although I think he would have at least have broken wind when Iain Hume's header flew in close proximity to his crossbar in the 54th minute.

We could also have argue about a penalty with Dave Syers being brought down in the area, but the referee didn't agree.  

However, at the end of the day, the better team won.  

  

The Season So Far...

It started badly for Bournemouth and after just 1 win in 11 matches, it was goodbye to Paul Groves and welcome back Eddie Howe.  The effect was instant as the Cherries beat Orient 2 : 0 in Howe's first game in charge.

They then went on a 15-match unbeaten run finally succumbing to Walsall in January.  That one seemed to be a bolt out of the blue though as the next 5 matches all ended in victory.  

But now?  Have the wheels come off the Cherries promotion wagon?  They've lost their last four only scoring one goal in the process.

So where Donny are inconsistent, Bournemouth are consistent.  They have put together runs all season.  The only problem being the one at the start of the season and the one they are in now weren't good runs.

Of all the teams in League 1, Bournemouth have the biggest difference between their best and worst league positions this season.

Bournemouth Season High: 1st (February)
Bournemouth Season Low:  21st (October)

...and so to the Game

Rovers away form as been what we have banked on this season.  We're still top of the league away from home but we're not the runaway leaders that we were.  Of late, our forwards haven't fired like they have fired on their travels seen by the shooting efficiency - in the last 5 matches half what it has been for the whole season.  The same applies to the defence.  The door was locked and bolted.  Recently we seem to have told opponents that the key is under the mat.

As for Bournemouth, well, as I've pointed out, they are having a spell of their own.  They are third in the home league table only having lost 3 matches at Dean Court all season.  Thing is two of those three were the last two matches played there.  

It looks like Eddie Howe's half time team talks do the business from the goal times chart.  In the first 15 minutes of second halves, the Cherries have scored 13 times while only conceding 3.  

When it comes to form, I think that table of stats shows Bournemouth have less to worry about than Donny.  Although they might not have won, Bournemouth's recent in-game stats (shooting, shots against etc.) are holding up.  They are at similar levels in recent matches as they have been all season.  They are doing the right things.  Donny's in-game stats on the other hand have changed quite dramatically.  That's a concern.

So what's going to happen?  Well I think Bournemouth will be well up for this one.  They're having a little dip in form and a match against inconsistent league leaders could be just what the doctor ordered.  Beating the leaders sends massive signals to fans that all is not lost, which it certainly isn't for Bournemouth.

But how true will those signals be if Rovers are beaten?  My bet would be that they would be quite misleading.  Rovers recently have either been brilliant, in which case they will win today or they have been really bloody awful.  What Rovers will turn up?

Sadly, I can't say I'm hopeful.  Donny's injury list is growing and the latest addition, Rob Jones' boots are the hardest of all to fill.  Gary Woods has also been reported to be struggling to be fit meaning Neil Sullivan could have been waiting by the phone all week.  In midfield,  Paul Keegan, Martin Woods and David Syers are all missing.  Forwards Chris Brown and Robbie Blake complete the list.

Bournemouth, on the other hand look like they are getting players back.  Tommy Elphick and Charlie Daniels are back in the squad after injury.

Forum Corner

There's been a conspiracy theory running all season that Rovers don't really want to get promoted.  I really don't know where they get this idea.  Their arguments are normally financial.  Pointing to Rovers taking cheap options in, for instance, their choice of manager.  

These conspiracy theorists went into overdrive this week at the re-signing of Mark Wilson.  Willo was never a fans' favourite at the club and the boards were rife with our lack of ambition in taking a player Gainsborough Trinity have rejected.  Rejected?  Did they actually reject him? They signed him on  match-by-match basis in December.  He made two appearances.  Behind the scenes at Trinity, there's trouble at t' mill.  Chairman Peter Swann, frustrated at having his attempts to  buy the Northolme ground is severing his ties with the club and preparing to sell it on.  I don't think Trinity have rejected Wilson, I think its more a case that they can't afford him.

As Bryan Flynn announced the signing, he did point out that Willo has been around Rovers since he came to the club.  For me, he's simply signed a piece of paper that makes him available for selection should it be necessary and in that sense, its a good idea.  At no cost, Rovers have an experienced, natural leader who knows the club and the players. I personally doubt he'll play again for the Rovers, but if the injuries worsen, there are far worse insurance policies  around.

To Bournemouth's Court Offside Forum and I was glad I wasn't the only one who enjoyed the sight of Alex Ferguson with steam coming out of his ears.  If Ferguson wasn't such a terrible example of many things wrong with the game (bad sportsmanship, no respect for officials, double standards) he would be the greatest manager of all time.  He regularly and flagrantly thumbs his nose at the football authorities so to see him tantrum always brings a smile to my face.  I really couldn't care less who wins the Champion's League but I do wonder what effect having no teams in the Quarter-Finals will have on English football.  Will we lose a champions league place?  Will English football lose money?  Will the money it has get better distributed?

Theres also a thread about double-figure redundancies at Dean Court.  The thread seemed a mixture of rumours and "from the horse's mouth" facts.  But the thread didn't refer to any announcement of news item and gave the impression that nothing had been announced.  This is strange because I googled AFC Bournemouth redundancies and found a story on the BBC.  It seems that some trimming of the wage bill is needed.  The club have the biggest playing staff in the division and from what I was reading, they don't lack people behind the scenes either.

Still redundancies are always sad.  I hope it works out for the club and the unlucky ones who end up without a job.

Enjoy the game everyone!