Doncaster Rovers v Bournemouth

Last Time Out...

So what should we talk about?  I did the last League game (well, half game) in the preview before the match against Leeds in the League Cup.  So, should we talk about that game?  It would seem churlish not to so here goes.

Well done Leeds, I think Rovers were well beaten on the night.  With exception of the opening 10 minutes and another 10 minutes after Billy Paynter's equalizer, it seemed from the commentary that Leeds were the better team.  And my final word - what did I say about the team that won the aerial battle winning the game?  OK -  the team winning the aerial battle probably win the match in more than 50% of occasions but I said the aerial battle would be decisive and so it turned out to be.  I get a big gold star!

Move the ball effectively forwards to create shooting opportunities and take as many of your chances as possible while preventing your opponents from doing the same.  That sounds like a reasonable strategy.  So can Rovers do it?  I've looked at the stats below to find out.

So lets start with possession effectiveness.

Donny are the second best team in the division in terms of moving the ball to get a shooting opportunity.  Unfortunately they tend to allow their opponents to do the same thing.  It makes it all very entertaining though.  End to end stuff as the pundits would say.

When it comes to actually putting the ball in the back of the net once we get the chance to do so, it's not bad either.  6th best in the division - yes I'll take that.  Preventing the opponent from doing the same thing? -  Rovers are about average.  

So do we believe that creating lots of chances and then putting as many of the chances away as possible improves your league position?  Well sometimes stats are used to prove the bleeding obvious so here goes.

If you take the sum of the ranking for each of those 4 statistics (for Donny that's 2+20+6+13 = 41) and plot that against the league position for each team, you should get something that's approaching a straight line if the stats and the league position are related.  That's what I've done in the chart above.  It shows a strong relationship between the stats and the league position.  So  - its true!  Now you know!

For Donny - attack has so far been better than defence and the weakest point is preventing our opponents from getting shooting opportunities.

Here endeth the lesson.

Meanwhile...

Bournemouth had a trip up to Huddersfield last weekend.  As Donny's game was being abandoned, Bournemouth would have had pangs of jealousy at Charlton's good fortune.  They were 3:0 down at half time and the game ended with a 5:1 drubbing.  

Huddersfield went a goal up in 14 minutes when Adam Hammill ran at the Bournemouth defence in the penalty area daring the defence to put in a tackle.  They didn't and Hammill somehow squeezed in his shot off the near post.  A little later there was a much clearer opportunity.  A long, diagonal  ball out of the defence found James Vaughan in space advancing on the Bournemouth penalty area.  Ryan Allsopp was caught between coming or staying and really did neither but fortunately for him, Vaughan's finishing was wayward.

But Vaughan was to get a goal before half-time.  Comical stuff really, a corner was tamely glanced over to the far by-line by Tommy Elphick who then jogged over to try and make amends for his poor clearance.  The invitation to cross back was accepted by Jake Carroll who hit the ball into a far post area where it bounced back to the original corner taker giving him chance to improve on his first effort. He did and Vaughan headed in, unmarked from the middle of the 6 yard box.

Five minutes later and Vaughan had a brace.  A simple through-ball finding the in-form striker slipping in between defenders.  This was an easy finish to the keeper's left.

Second half and Vaughan completed his hat-trick from the penalty spot after Simon Francis was very careless in colliding with Jake Carroll.  The ball had gone, there was no danger but it was a penalty.  Very silly.

Francis made something of amends with a cross into the box from which substitute, Marc Pugh headed in a consolation goal for the Cherries.  But Huddersfield saved the best until last.  Adam Clayton cut in onto his left foot before curling a great shot into the top left corner.  They could have had a sixth too when yet another free-header went just wide.

5:1 and 6:1 defeats sadly say it all about Bournemouth's defence at the moment.  The amount of space they are affording championship strikers is simply suicidal.  I also thought that they looked casual when under pressure.  Its all very well looking like a swan on the surface while paddling like hell underneath, but you have to do the paddling otherwise you sink.

Up front, excepting the goal, the efforts I saw the Bournemouth frontmen attempt in that game were tame but were well created.  But its the defence that needs sorting out.

Enjoy the match everyone. 

Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United

LAST TIME OUT

Well Saturday was a bit of a bummer wasn't it?  I'll admit that this first section is a rewrite.  I wrote the original on Sunday and having read it back, I was still chucking toys out of my pram about it all.   Lets face it, I can't do that in front of the Leeds fans so here is the calm, reflective version.

Listening to Paul Dickov's post (almost) match, I have to say he's got it right.  You have to respect and accept the referee's decision to call the match off.  You don't have to think it correct, and with Chris Powell also wanting to complete the fixture I think the correctness of the call is questionable.  But there was a lot of water on that pitch.  At least the decision could be understood.

I'm less charitable about Charlton Athletic FC.  Not the players or coaching staff but the club.  The equipment that was being used to try and save the fixture while it was still raining was wholly inadequate.  This club was in the premier league in 2007 - really ?  Its all the more unacceptable when I read some comments from fans returning from the game.  Flooding at the Valley is not a new phenomenon.  They know of the problem.  When I think of the money Rovers have spent trying to improve the Keepmoat pitch over the years you have to ask why the Valley doesn't have better drainage.

Dickov also clearly indicated that he would be appealing Paul Keegan's dismissal.  Quite right too under the circumstances.  Neither of Keegan's offences involved dangerous or cynical play.  I see no reason for not wiping the disciplinary slate of both teams clean from that fixture.  Lets hope common sense prevails at Football League HQ.

The football statistics websites got themselves into a right tizzy due to the abandonment.  I think some of them archive stats used to create the "match centres" as the match is played.  This has meant some data has gone into the databases that really shouldn't be there.  The teccys now have to get it out again.

Anyway, this is how the match looked statistically as it was called off.  Not particularly relevant but you never know, it might scare our friends from West Yorkshire  a little ;-).  Lets face it, I've seen worse shooting statistics.

Meanwhile....

Leeds did get a full match in on Saturday, visiting Portman Road and coming away with all three points for the first time in 12 years at that ground.

Leeds didn't have it all their own way though and at the start, Ipswich were more lively.  Ipswich had already had a Jay Tabb goal ruled out for offside when they took the lead in the 11th minute.  Route 1 by Ipswich;  a goal kick flicked on by Murphy into the path of David McGoldrick.  He ran at  Leeds' Tom Lees who slipped giving McGoldrick the space to place a great finish into Paddy Kenny's bottom right corner.  But Leeds then came back.  Ross McCormack, looking as dangerous as ever rolled the dice from range, the ricochet fell kindly for Luke Varney who blasted into the top of the goal. 

After the break and it was McCormack from range that gave Leeds' their winner.  Stepping in from the left he hit a hard low shot that had none of its pace taken away by a deflection or two before hitting the bottom corner.  Ipswich pressed hard to get back on terms but Leeds stayed firm enough to keep a grip on the points.

So a good start to the season from Leeds with 2 wins and 2 draws.  The much despised Ken Bates is out of the club removing an obvious distraction and Brian McDermott is starting his first full season in charge.  Expect Leeds to be there or thereabouts this season.

So what can we expect?

Quick explanation of the arrows in that table.  An up arrow indicates Doncaster's statistic to be better than Leeds.  A down arrow indicates worse than Leeds.  The horizontal arrows indicate more or less even performance.

It's very even between these sides.  

Donny have generally won the aerial battle in their matches so far...but so have Leeds.  Its going to be very interesting to see who comes out on top and I think that the answer to that question may well identify the winner.

At first sight the stats appear to be in Leeds' favour but pay real attention to the last two stats as for me, they are the most important.  High shooting efficiency simply means the team takes it's chances.  A lower amount of possession minutes per shot indicates a side that moves the ball to a shooting chance quickly.  Combine good shooting efficiency with the ability to make shooting opportunities quickly and you should win matches.  To show where the sides are in these respects, average possession minutes per shot in the championship so far has been 4.2 minutes and the average shooting efficiency is 9.8%.  

So if Rovers can overcome Leeds' ability in the air, I think they will win.  

Doncaster Rovers Player Stats

 What I am loving about those stats is the large number of tackles being put in by Rovers forwards.  Having watched a few Leeds performances, despite good aerial dual stats posted by Jason Pearce and Tom Lees, Leeds do look vulnerable to crosses.  Rovers have been profiting from set-pieces and crosses especially from Chris Brown's knock-downs so that could be a key contest.

As far as the Rovers defence is concerned, the first but by no means the only thing they must do is stop McCormack.  That will not be easy.  Ross McCormack drops off the frontline to pop up in all sorts of areas.  His pace is devastating and he will shoot on sight - normally accurately.  Due to his movement, I'd see stopping him as a team job rather than a task for a particular individual.  A difficult job.

Anyway - I think we're in for an interesting and entertaining evening.  Enjoy the match everyone.

Doncaster Rovers v Blackburn Rovers

Last Time Out

...or first time out as it happens to be in this case.  Sadly, Donny came off worst in the end but are we disheartened?  Well personally, no.  My impression listening to the match was that the 1 : 3 scoreline flattered Blackpool more than a little.  

The first two goals were disappointing, the third an irrelevance as were the scores still level, it would not have happened.  Good lessons to be learned about things Donny got away with last season that this season will cost them.  The first goal was a case of everyone rushing to close down a shot, but then being nowhere when the 'keeper wasn't able to push away as far as he would have liked.  The second goal was a needless corner followed by crucially losing the man at the back post.

But didn't Donny compete well?

The Seasiders had more possession than us but were massively out-competed in the air.  Pleasingly, all Donny's passing stats were better than their opponents, but the stats also indicate why Blackpool were able to keep Rovers from scoring more than the one goal.  Look at the throw count against Donny.  Blackpool were able to keep forcing Donny into playing the ball out so disrupting flow in Rovers play.  

There's a table of the Rovers' general performance stats.  Up arrows show better than average performance and down arrows worse than average.  Where appropriate, I've marked the best and worst stats in the class in green and red.  The data comes from www.whoscored.com and is sorted in the order of their ranking (highest to lowest).  

I'll pick out a couple of points that I see from the stats.  The two highest ranked players were our Centre Backs and you see them both contributing well to tackling and the aerial battle.  You can add over 60% of the Rovers clearances their stats and you see that they came under pressure but stood up well.

Also worth a mention is Chris Brown.  Yes, he's a little way down that list, mainly due to poor passing but the aerial balls won; the fact that he wasn't dispossessed in the game and  a couple of turnovers won, and you see a man who did a fine job as the lone front man.  He needs support though and hopefully, new signing Theo Robinson will provide that.

Final mention, sadly not so positive.  James Husband didn't show so well.  His passing was off and he made just two tackles.  It wasn't much better looking at his attacking stats.  None of his crosses found their target and he played just one accurate long ball.  Not a good day for James but it would be harsh to write off his chances of stepping up to the championship after one game.

Meanwhile...

Blackburn were getting off the mark with a draw at Derby but unlike Donny, Blackburn have seen action since the opening day, which means of course that I have twice as many stats to deal with (waves of enthusiasm over the ether!).

Just one point out of six was won with an opening day draw against Derby.  Luck only came into that result in that Blackburn equalized in the 89th minute through and excellent finish by Leon Best, but they were good value for the point.  They kept attacking Derby right up to the end even after they had equalized.  What impressed me was how they broke at speed through series of quick, short passes.  Impressive and intimidating.

On to game two the East Midlands are up again in the form of Nottingham Forest who visited Ewood Park.  Having won a point with a last-gasp goal on th opening day, on this occasion they lost the point and sadly, it was a case of giving it away rather than having it taken.  'Keeper Karl Darlow committed himself to a ball he had little chance of taking and instead clattered into Jamie Mackie.  Other players may have rolled around crying for a penalty but refreshingly, Mackie didn't.  Instead he got up and played a quick short pass to Darius Henderson who placed his finish into the empty net.  

Comparing the stats on the two games and I think I've highlighted the key-points that lost Blackburn the Forest game.  They allowed their opponents too much possession.  Blackburn made 50% fewer tackles than Forest allowing them to knock the ball around (high pass success).  On the other hand, Blackburn's possession was broken up.  End result - look at the shot counts.  21 shots for Blackburn at Derby but only 6 at home to Forest.

There's the Blackburn average performance data per match so far and first of all, its good to see Tommy Spurr doing well.  Other interesting points? - Leon Best, like Chris Brown look like a formidable front man but look at the number of dispossessions.  Against Derby he lost the ball just once.  Against Forest it was 5 times.  Perhaps he is worth pressurising.

Finally we see that so far Jordan Rhodes hasn't been involved enough in games.  He's also not doing what he's paid to do and shooting.  Even in the shot-fest against Derby, Jordan only managed two shots.  Lets hope he doesn't suddenly improve tomorrow evening.  

The Pub Team are Back!

 

We've finally done it! Many thought it was simply not possible but in the end, it had to happen. I'm talking about being drawn at home for the first league fixture of the season. The last time it happened was 6 years ago in 2007 when Millwall were the opponents in our opening league 1 fixture. Saturday's match is just the second time Rovers have been at home on first day since being promoted back into the football league. The Millwall game ended goalless but the season of course ended in play-off triumph. I'd be happy to take history repeating itself!

At this point in the blog, I normally rabbit on about the last time out but it hardly seems relevant with it being the first game. Then again, it wasn't such a bad last time out from a Rovers point of view was it? Carlsberg don't do season endings but if they did....Anyway, in case anyone missed it, here's my take on 2012/13 with Rovers.

I have to confess that I don't do closed seasons very well. I seriously cannot be bothered with the wild speculation and pure rubbish that is written in the press and on the forums at this time of year. So, until Wednesday I had read very little about the Rovers. I had however gleaned that they had been to Portugal on a pre-season tour.

 

Portugal? Last season it was Cleethorpes! Touring Portugal pre-season actually sounds like something a proper club might do! Could Rovers be becoming a proper club. You know, with money and everything?

 

Fast forward to Wednesday, just 4 days before we are due to kick-off a championship campaign and there's the pub team I know and love. We had just 13 players on the books on Wednesday Morning (let's face it, most pub teams have more). Micky Walker (who no longer even works for the club) deputizes for Paul Dickov at a live "meet the South Yorkshire Managers" radio event and announces to our local rivals that we're shopping at Aldi rather than M&S. At another press event Ryan, Baldwin and Watson attempt to not answer questions on takeover speculation for 15 minutes when a statement would surely have delivered the same meagre information with a little less cringing from the fans. Tommy Spurr walks away from the club to Blackburn because we were too slow with his paperwork. Yeah...the pub team is alive and kicking.

 

Player-wise, we did manage some late signings. We had to! So we start tomorrow not looking in such bad shape. That old adage about it being important to have your team together for the pre-season was forgotten but it was last season too, and that worked out OK. So it's welcome to Ross Turnbull, Mark Duffy, Harry Forrester, Luke McCullough, Marc de Val, Bongani Khumalo and Richie Wellens. We've got to the starting line. It's going to be a long slog to the finish but, yes, we will have the temerity to compete hard for 21st place.

 

And so on to Blackpool. There are a surprising number of parallels between our two clubs. First of all there's the fact that Blackpool also have issues with the fixture computer (or however they work out who is at home for the first game). Blackpool are away on first day for the fifth consecutive season.

 

Then we have the manager, Paul Ince. Ince, like Dickov hasn't had the best of management careers up to date. After winning a league trophy and a League 2 Championship with MK Dons in 2008, Ince's managerial career has been a series of embarrassing failures. At Blackburn, admittedly, one of the worst run clubs in the country, he managed just 3 wins in 17 games in charge and was fired after less six months. After a "nothing" season back at the Dons, he went to Notts County. Again it ended badly with Ince and the club parting company after a record 9 match losing streak. Now starting his first full season in charge at the Seasiders, many think this could be a make or break season for Ince.

 

Ince has by his own admission been frustrated when it has come to building his squad for the season. He has managed to bring five new recruits on board in the form of Bobby Grant, Michael Chopra, Steven Davies, Gary MacKenzie and Jack Robinson but 14 players have left Bloomfield Road. So Blackpool come into the first match of the season with just 13 fit first team players. Pub team?

 

But it's football and its back - Horaay! Perhaps more people will now start writing about things that are happening rather than things they may believe, feel or guess is happening. We can only hope!

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