Saturday 31 August 2013

Doncaster Rovers v Bournemouth

Last Time Out...

So what should we talk about?  I did the last League game (well, half game) in the preview before the match against Leeds in the League Cup.  So, should we talk about that game?  It would seem churlish not to so here goes.

Well done Leeds, I think Rovers were well beaten on the night.  With exception of the opening 10 minutes and another 10 minutes after Billy Paynter's equalizer, it seemed from the commentary that Leeds were the better team.  And my final word - what did I say about the team that won the aerial battle winning the game?  OK -  the team winning the aerial battle probably win the match in more than 50% of occasions but I said the aerial battle would be decisive and so it turned out to be.  I get a big gold star!

Move the ball effectively forwards to create shooting opportunities and take as many of your chances as possible while preventing your opponents from doing the same.  That sounds like a reasonable strategy.  So can Rovers do it?  I've looked at the stats below to find out.



So lets start with possession effectiveness.


Donny are the second best team in the division in terms of moving the ball to get a shooting opportunity.  Unfortunately they tend to allow their opponents to do the same thing.  It makes it all very entertaining though.  End to end stuff as the pundits would say.


When it comes to actually putting the ball in the back of the net once we get the chance to do so, it's not bad either.  6th best in the division - yes I'll take that.  Preventing the opponent from doing the same thing? -  Rovers are about average.  

So do we believe that creating lots of chances and then putting as many of the chances away as possible improves your league position?  Well sometimes stats are used to prove the bleeding obvious so here goes.


If you take the sum of the ranking for each of those 4 statistics (for Donny that's 2+20+6+13 = 41) and plot that against the league position for each team, you should get something that's approaching a straight line if the stats and the league position are related.  That's what I've done in the chart above.  It shows a strong relationship between the stats and the league position.  So  - its true!  Now you know!

For Donny - attack has so far been better than defence and the weakest point is preventing our opponents from getting shooting opportunities.

Here endeth the lesson.

Meanwhile...

Bournemouth had a trip up to Huddersfield last weekend.  As Donny's game was being abandoned, Bournemouth would have had pangs of jealousy at Charlton's good fortune.  They were 3:0 down at half time and the game ended with a 5:1 drubbing.  

Huddersfield went a goal up in 14 minutes when Adam Hammill ran at the Bournemouth defence in the penalty area daring the defence to put in a tackle.  They didn't and Hammill somehow squeezed in his shot off the near post.  A little later there was a much clearer opportunity.  A long, diagonal  ball out of the defence found James Vaughan in space advancing on the Bournemouth penalty area.  Ryan Allsopp was caught between coming or staying and really did neither but fortunately for him, Vaughan's finishing was wayward.

But Vaughan was to get a goal before half-time.  Comical stuff really, a corner was tamely glanced over to the far by-line by Tommy Elphick who then jogged over to try and make amends for his poor clearance.  The invitation to cross back was accepted by Jake Carroll who hit the ball into a far post area where it bounced back to the original corner taker giving him chance to improve on his first effort. He did and Vaughan headed in, unmarked from the middle of the 6 yard box.

Five minutes later and Vaughan had a brace.  A simple through-ball finding the in-form striker slipping in between defenders.  This was an easy finish to the keeper's left.

Second half and Vaughan completed his hat-trick from the penalty spot after Simon Francis was very careless in colliding with Jake Carroll.  The ball had gone, there was no danger but it was a penalty.  Very silly.

Francis made something of amends with a cross into the box from which substitute, Marc Pugh headed in a consolation goal for the Cherries.  But Huddersfield saved the best until last.  Adam Clayton cut in onto his left foot before curling a great shot into the top left corner.  They could have had a sixth too when yet another free-header went just wide.

5:1 and 6:1 defeats sadly say it all about Bournemouth's defence at the moment.  The amount of space they are affording championship strikers is simply suicidal.  I also thought that they looked casual when under pressure.  Its all very well looking like a swan on the surface while paddling like hell underneath, but you have to do the paddling otherwise you sink.

Up front, excepting the goal, the efforts I saw the Bournemouth frontmen attempt in that game were tame but were well created.  But its the defence that needs sorting out.

Enjoy the match everyone. 

No comments:

Post a Comment