Monday 26 August 2013

Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United

LAST TIME OUT

Well Saturday was a bit of a bummer wasn't it?  I'll admit that this first section is a rewrite.  I wrote the original on Sunday and having read it back, I was still chucking toys out of my pram about it all.   Lets face it, I can't do that in front of the Leeds fans so here is the calm, reflective version.

Listening to Paul Dickov's post (almost) match, I have to say he's got it right.  You have to respect and accept the referee's decision to call the match off.  You don't have to think it correct, and with Chris Powell also wanting to complete the fixture I think the correctness of the call is questionable.  But there was a lot of water on that pitch.  At least the decision could be understood.

I'm less charitable about Charlton Athletic FC.  Not the players or coaching staff but the club.  The equipment that was being used to try and save the fixture while it was still raining was wholly inadequate.  This club was in the premier league in 2007 - really ?  Its all the more unacceptable when I read some comments from fans returning from the game.  Flooding at the Valley is not a new phenomenon.  They know of the problem.  When I think of the money Rovers have spent trying to improve the Keepmoat pitch over the years you have to ask why the Valley doesn't have better drainage.

Dickov also clearly indicated that he would be appealing Paul Keegan's dismissal.  Quite right too under the circumstances.  Neither of Keegan's offences involved dangerous or cynical play.  I see no reason for not wiping the disciplinary slate of both teams clean from that fixture.  Lets hope common sense prevails at Football League HQ.

The football statistics websites got themselves into a right tizzy due to the abandonment.  I think some of them archive stats used to create the "match centres" as the match is played.  This has meant some data has gone into the databases that really shouldn't be there.  The teccys now have to get it out again.

Anyway, this is how the match looked statistically as it was called off.  Not particularly relevant but you never know, it might scare our friends from West Yorkshire  a little ;-).  Lets face it, I've seen worse shooting statistics.



Meanwhile....

Leeds did get a full match in on Saturday, visiting Portman Road and coming away with all three points for the first time in 12 years at that ground.

Leeds didn't have it all their own way though and at the start, Ipswich were more lively.  Ipswich had already had a Jay Tabb goal ruled out for offside when they took the lead in the 11th minute.  Route 1 by Ipswich;  a goal kick flicked on by Murphy into the path of David McGoldrick.  He ran at  Leeds' Tom Lees who slipped giving McGoldrick the space to place a great finish into Paddy Kenny's bottom right corner.  But Leeds then came back.  Ross McCormack, looking as dangerous as ever rolled the dice from range, the ricochet fell kindly for Luke Varney who blasted into the top of the goal. 

After the break and it was McCormack from range that gave Leeds' their winner.  Stepping in from the left he hit a hard low shot that had none of its pace taken away by a deflection or two before hitting the bottom corner.  Ipswich pressed hard to get back on terms but Leeds stayed firm enough to keep a grip on the points.

So a good start to the season from Leeds with 2 wins and 2 draws.  The much despised Ken Bates is out of the club removing an obvious distraction and Brian McDermott is starting his first full season in charge.  Expect Leeds to be there or thereabouts this season.

So what can we expect?

Quick explanation of the arrows in that table.  An up arrow indicates Doncaster's statistic to be better than Leeds.  A down arrow indicates worse than Leeds.  The horizontal arrows indicate more or less even performance.

It's very even between these sides.  

Donny have generally won the aerial battle in their matches so far...but so have Leeds.  Its going to be very interesting to see who comes out on top and I think that the answer to that question may well identify the winner.

At first sight the stats appear to be in Leeds' favour but pay real attention to the last two stats as for me, they are the most important.  High shooting efficiency simply means the team takes it's chances.  A lower amount of possession minutes per shot indicates a side that moves the ball to a shooting chance quickly.  Combine good shooting efficiency with the ability to make shooting opportunities quickly and you should win matches.  To show where the sides are in these respects, average possession minutes per shot in the championship so far has been 4.2 minutes and the average shooting efficiency is 9.8%.  

So if Rovers can overcome Leeds' ability in the air, I think they will win.  

Doncaster Rovers Player Stats


 What I am loving about those stats is the large number of tackles being put in by Rovers forwards.  Having watched a few Leeds performances, despite good aerial dual stats posted by Jason Pearce and Tom Lees, Leeds do look vulnerable to crosses.  Rovers have been profiting from set-pieces and crosses especially from Chris Brown's knock-downs so that could be a key contest.

As far as the Rovers defence is concerned, the first but by no means the only thing they must do is stop McCormack.  That will not be easy.  Ross McCormack drops off the frontline to pop up in all sorts of areas.  His pace is devastating and he will shoot on sight - normally accurately.  Due to his movement, I'd see stopping him as a team job rather than a task for a particular individual.  A difficult job.

Anyway - I think we're in for an interesting and entertaining evening.  Enjoy the match everyone.


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