Reading v Doncaster Rovers

What with no proper football over the last two weeks, I really don't have any excuse than to take a closer look at how we're doing.  I mean, would you expect any less of me?

The important thing, I think we can all agree is getting as many points as you can per game, so I used that as my basis stat.  I then looked at the relationships between points per game and 4 attacking stats.

• Goals per Game For
• Shots on Target per Game For (including Goals)
• Shots per Game For
• Possession Effectiveness For (Minutes possession per shot)

Finally I looked at the same relationships but for the equivalent defensive stat (just take the word "For" in the list above and replace with "Against")

I discovered two things.  First of all, unsurprisingly, the list there is in the order of most important statistic to least important statistic.  Yep, I've just told you that if a team scores goals but doesn't concede goals, they win football games.  And you thought I didn't know my stuff!

The second point is slightly more insightful.  In all cases, the defensive stat is more closely related to the number of points a team is winning per game than the corresponding attacking stat.  So, note to managers - get your defences sorted out!

Defensive Stats

Theres the league table in terms of points per game, QPR top by virtue of being equal on points with Burnley having played one game fewer.  QPR are ranked 2nd in terms of Goals conceded per game, first for shots (on target or otherwise) against per game and 2nd on possession effectiveness.

That's the table explained so look at Donny.  A creditable 15th overall, and 9th best in terms of goals conceded.  But they do concede lots of shots against and shots on target against - a few too many in fact.  So, among the reasons we are doing OK would seem to be a good 'keeper and a defence able to block shots and get their bodies in the way.

Our opponents today Reading?  Also very miserly in terms of goals conceded and looking at the very large numbers of shots against per game in comparison with - well everybody actually they do this in a similar way to Rovers - only more so!

Attacking Stats

But attacking is important too so there's the table of attacking stats.

Donny, as I've said all season are good at moving the ball into shooting positions when they get it.  The rest of the stats are more or less where you would expect them to be for a team in Rovers' league position.

As for Reading, well all their attacking stats are worse than their league position would suggest.  I have a feeling this side spends quite a lot of time on the ball without doing too much with it.

So a final message to both sides - give Alex McCarthy (not Adam Federici?) and Ross Turnbull a good reception today.  It looks like the pair of them are keeping our teams higher in the league than they possibly would be.

Last Time Out...

Danish for the Day!

I was Danish for the Day

I know I was

I'm sure I was

I was Danish for the Day!

Actually, Kasper Schmeichel has completely screwed up my Stats.  I work out things like shooting efficiency by classing goals as shots on target.  That's fine until clowns start throwing corner kicks into their own goals - then the assumption that a goal comes from a shot kinda stops working and my stat loses a bit of accuracy.

Tell you what though.  I'll forgive him this once.  And maybe again if he chooses to do the same thing on the last game of the season.

So a bit fortunate to come away with the points?  Perhaps, but that's not to say it wasn't a deserved victory.  Shortly after the goal, Theo Robinson and Dean Furman both had Schmeichel showing more typical behaviour and in the second half, but for last ditch tackling, Chris Brown would have been on the score sheet.

At the other end, sure Dave Nugent was having an off-day and Jamie Vardy did have Ross Turnbull beaten and the ball cannoning off the post.  But the defence, and Rob Jones in particular were massive. Leicester were averaging 14 shots per game before Rovers met them.  Holding them to just 10 was a great defensive effort.

Meanwhile...

Reading were also faced with a tough task with an away tie at League leaders Burnley.  But for Reading, it didn't go as well.

Which ever way you look at it, dominating possession but still allowing your opponents 23 shots (including the two goals) can't be recommended.  Nor can only getting in 8 shots with all that possession when spending the majority of the game 1:0 down.

I think Burnley's first goal was one  that the Royal's centre-backs will want to forget.  Sean Morrison had allowed Danny Ings to sneak in behind him to score the goal but the major crime at the back was Alex Pearce's very half-hearted attempt to get his head to Kieren Trippier's cross.  

Burnley were pretty much shoot on sight in the first half with a flurry of successive chances.  But Reading would be disappointed.  Throughout the game, their midfield looked to be losing the ball a little too easily.  Ings in particular was profiting and on another day, he would have had his hat-trick.

So, when Burnley doubled their lead in the 80th minute, it was fully deserved.  Danny Ings turned provider on this occasion and slipped Sam Vokes in behind Reading's offside trap for him to slide the ball under McCarthy.

Reading came back though and it was another own goal to screw up my stats.  On this occasion no howler though.  A cross parried straight onto Jason Shackell's knee and ricocheted into the net.

At this point Reading looked to gain a late sense of urgency and had a couple of chances but it was a good and deserved victory for the home side.

For Reading, Alex McCarthy was impressive but he had to be.  Sloppiness in the midfield was allowing Burnley to attack at will, particularly in the first half.  The only impression I got of Reading's attacking was Chris Gunter's ability to get forward.  He looked dangerous on the right.

So what will happen...

Difficult to say.  I thought it would be the case of a possession side against a side that likes to play on the counter but not really.  Curiously, Reading at home do not keep possession as well as Reading away.  So with Donny wanting to play on the counter, Reading may look to do the same.  That should make it quite exciting.

Billy Sharp and Adam Le Fondre looks a tasty combination up from for the Royals while Donny are missing Kiko Macheda.  Chris Brown, I'm sure will be his normal awesome self leading Donny's line and without Macheda, Theo Robinson is going to have to return to the form he showed just after he signed.

Looking forward to it - Enjoy the match everyone!

Doncaster Rovers v Leicester City

Last Time Out...

Yeah...it was a tough ask, playing against a side who were going to go top if they were victorious.  Maybe they are only top because QPR didn't play on Tuesday.  But there is no doubt that Rovers were facing a side that were both good and in form.  Add to that the geography of going to the top of the table and you have a tough ask.

It wasn't all bad for Donny though.  Arguably they had the better of the first half right until a rather rash Jason Shackell challenge on Sam Vokes gave Burnley a penalty on half time.  

It was Rob Jones?  Commentator said it was Jason Shackell.  Would I prefer it to have been Jason?  Sorry Rob, you are the man - you feature on my backgrounds for Pete's sake but if I could swap you for Jason Shackell - I would.

Anyway, Vokes sent Turnbull the wrong way and Paul Dickov was no doubt re-draughting his half time chat.  

The second half was a much more one-sided affair, sadly.  Burnley demonstrated why they are where they are in the table and Rob Jones demonstrated why on the night had he been thrown into a barrel full of tits, he'd be the one who would be fished out sucking a dummy.  The one great thing he did all night, a fabulous goal line clearance of Michael Kightley's cross in combination with James Husband, was credited to Mr. Shackell;  he then put a header that you'd normally bet on him to score over the bar; (no credit to anyone for that - BBC commentator obviously told it wasn't Shackell but they didn't know who it was) and finally, just when the Beeb get their facts right about Jones, he puts past his own 'keeper.  I've had those kind of days Rob.  I recommend Vodka!

On the stats, well 3.78 minutes possession per shot is still very healthy and I like the fact we are getting more on target.  So, not all bad.

Meanwhile...

Leicester were down at our fellow co-promotees, Yeovil and they were beating them so helping Rovers to maintain their position as the highest ranking side promoted into the league since the advent of automatic promotion / relegation to and from the fourth flight.

But have a look at those in-game stats and you see that on the night there wasn't so much between Yeovil and Leicester.  And 40 shots over the 90 minutes!  It looks like there was some decent entertainment to be had at Huish Park on Tuesday night.

For Yeovil, I think it may have been a case of throwing a little caution to the wind.  They are still without a point at home this season and the third-placed club was coming to town.  The worst that would happen is what was expected to happen.

So the game was open and even.  Yeovil very happy to give it a go but Leicester equally happy to pick them off by breaking quickly.  It was the quick breaking that was eye-catching for me.  Andy King, who was playing his 200th league game (he seems to have been around longer than that)  and Lloyd Dyer look particularly effective in the Leicester midfield in this respect.  But like those scraps 5 year olds have, when they go "windmilling" at each other not a lot was on target and nobody got hurt in the first 45 minutes.  All very entertaining for all that.

So into the second 45 and Antony Knockaert became the first to show that there was serious threat in the Leicester attacks just not quite enough curl on his shot after good work from Lloyd Dyer on the left.   It was a prelude to the first goal, which came from another very fast Leicester break.  David Nugent picked up the ball on the left and carried before seeing Dyer charging through the middle.  A simple ball and a confident finish ended an excellent move.

Yeovil scrapped back and came very close to scoring from a corner when Shane Duffy headed wide.    But those Leicester breaks were still a threat.  One of them, down the right saw Ritchie De Laet advance into the are and then cut in.  He beat Danny Seabourne who stuck out a leg behind him to trip the full back.  The penalty was smashed down the middle by David Nugent and Leicester had some comfort.  More Yeovil attacking came with Paddy Madden putting a free-kick just wide of the right post  before  the penalty count was evened up.  Madden flicked a ball on and Ed Upson just beat Liam Moore to it.  Moore tripped him and James Hayter put away the penalty.  It made for an exciting finish but in the end proved to be only a little consolation.

So what will happen?

Another tough ask for Donny.  The stats show that their ability to play on the break is somewhat less at home than it is away.  Not surprising really as home sides are always under more pressure to come out and attack.  That's not breaking.  Leicester on the other hand do look to be a fast breaking side and I think we can expect them to put the onus on the home side to attack them.  The counter does look their best game.

It should be entertaining though.  Leicester aren't anything like the best at limiting opponents shooting opportunities so there could be something in this for Donny.  We just need to have learned from Tuesday's experiences and be a little less naive with the defending.  

Sheffield Wednesday v Doncaster Rovers

Last Time Out...

Last time out I was questioning Donny's fitness or more exactly their ability to manage their fitness over the full ninety minutes especially after what we in Switzerland refer to as an "Englische Woche"(a week where matches are played Saturday-Midweek-Saturday).

Did the lads go and prove me wrong as I hoped they would?  I don't know about that but they did manage to get something out of the game against a team that many fancy to challenge at the top this season and a team that are in good form.  I'll take that!

Lets start with the positives.  First of all, Rovers shooting looked a lot better than it has done of late in this one.  20% of shots on target against Watford has turned into 60% on target v Forest.  And of course we got two in the back of the net courtesy of the big cheese himself, Federico Macheda (Macheddar...get it....OK nevermind).

Now, I read a couple of people on the forum stating that even though Macheda scored two goals, he wasn't man of the match.  Paul Keegan was thought by several to deserve that award.  Concensus of opinion suggested that Macheda's chances had been put on a plate for him.

Well, I neither watched the match nor listened in due to being at a rock festival with nothing that could be described as an internet connection so I cannot comment on Keegan.  But on Macheda I will say this.  To get them put on a plate, you have to first come to the table...ie get in position.  Macheda did that very well indeed.  Two excellent runs earned him the easy finishes from which he benefitted.  I thought the second in particular was a great team goal with Ritchie Wellens showing his unselfish streak and great vision to notice that while he had a good chance, Macheda had found a position where it was going to be difficult to miss.

While Donny's finishes were efforts we might expect to end up in the goal, Forest's were nothing like that.  Neither of them gave Ross Turnbull any chance whatsoever.  First Chris Cohen smashed into the top corner from just inside the area before in the 85th minute, Andy Reid did something similar from just outside of the area.

Were there any negatives?  Unfortunately, yes.  From the highlights it was clear that Reece Wabara and James Husband were continually being caught by Forest wide players getting down their outside.  From reading the forums, I'm not sure it was particularly their fault on this occasion.  Rovers played a 4-3-2-1 formation with no natural wide players in midfield.  They had, of course been employing Cotterill and Coppinger out wide and whilst neither of that pair has particularly good defensive credentials, from what I have seen, Coppinger at least does get in the way of opposition attacks somewhat on the right hand side.  In any case, a bit more protection for the full backs looked necessary from what I saw.

The other thing is Forest out-shot Donny 2:1 in that match.  There were quite a few scuffs and mis-hits that let us off but still, they created a lot of chances.  Too many in fact.

A final point is that very lopsided shot profile as the game goes on.  Rovers started off matching their visitors in terms of shots but as time went on, we were out-shot 3:2, 4:1 and 5:1.  OK, there is a good argument that for a long period, Donny were 1 goal up and so had placed the prerogative on their opponents to attack.  But they didn't take too much advantage of any gaps being left.  A shame really, as I did see Rovers have two excellent chances to extend their lead when they did get forwards.

But, we got a draw.  Not bad at all!

Meanwhile...

Lets move on and talk about the Owls.  Well, there's only one thing worse than having won just the one game this season so far and that's what Sheffield Wednesday have done.  Prior to their tonking by Birmingham last Saturday, which we will discuss in more detail, they had recorded four draws on the bounce; at home to Millwall and Yeovil and away to Leeds and Middlesbrough.  Those sides are currently placed 17th, 22nd, 13th and 16th respectively.  Compare and contrast with the draws gained by Rovers against the 6th, 9th and 11th placed clubs and you start to be concerned for the Owls.

Birmingham City played host to the Owls on Saturday and I am sure it was a match where the Wednesday would have been looking for at least a point before the game bearing in mind Birmingham were suffering their worst league start for 25 years.  A 4:1 defeat was probably as bad as it could have gone!

Looking at the 30 minutes of highlights available (for some reason not on Owls' player), the first thing I saw was Michail Antonio making a bit of a nuisance of himself.  First he cut in with a strong run from the left before shooting tamely.  Then he showed good strength to shrug off his marker on the right before playing the ball into the box.  Again the chance ended with a weakly hit shot  - but Antonio,  we may have to watch him.

But I didn't see much effort from Wednesday off the ball in the early exchanges shown by Blues player.  On a couple of occasions I watched Birmingham knocking the ball around deep in Wednesday territory without the inconvenience of defenders snapping at their heels.  The opener came when David Murphy intercepted brilliantly in midfield, simultaneously playing a perfect pass with the outside of his foot out to Chris Burke.  Cutting in from the right, Burke's shot could only be pushed by Kirkland into the path of Jesse Lingard who crashed the ball into the open net.  A second nearly came as Burke played a long ball out of defence that was completely misread by Kamil Zayette in the Owls' defence.  David Green was in on goal and would have scored but for quick and brave reactions by Kirkland.  Kirkland again came to Wednesday's rescue when Chris Burke, who was making a pest of himself on the right, as he has done at this level for years, won a free kick.

Burke crossed and the ball was cleared to the edge of the area where Lingard volleyed in goalwards forcing Kirkland to athletically tip over.  But Lingard was soon to get his second anyway.  Wednesday were simply out-muscled in the centre of midfield as Wade Elliot surged through.  A simple ball to his left allowed an unmarked Lingard to finish low to Kirkland's right.  Lingard completed a first half hat-trick on a dream debut for the Blues.  Again he was unmarked and was in almost exactly the same position from where he had netted his brace.  Paul Robinson this time played the killer ball, another easy one as he was not pressurized at all.

In the second half Birmingham and Lingard's fourth came from a predictable route.  A ball out to the right and Chris Burke who again beat Reda Johnson - twice to be precise before driving into the box to pull back for Lingard to finish.  Four goals on his debut for the Manchester United Loanee.  Good stuff!  If David Moyes feels he needs to recall players to strengthen his squad, Lingard is obviously far better than Federico Macheda.  He will learn more staying with the Rovers!

The Owls' scant consolation came from another familiar championship source, a Stephen McPhail free kick.  This one was about 35 yards out and was lifted into the middle of the penalty area where Kamil Zayette flicked a header into the goal having lost his marker.  Very little positive to say about Wednesday on this performance.  Just a few decent runs by Antonio early on and another half decent run by Maghoma were worth noting.  Other than that, the full backs in particular were awful, surely good reason to start Cotterill and/or Coppinger.  Marking slack, lazy off the ball and casual on it.  Surely Wednesday won't put in two performances that bad in a row.

So what will happen?

While there are no easy away ties in Championship football, and most of the home ones are tricky too, Rovers have got to fancy this one.  Certainly on the evidence of Wednesday's weekend, they are a team for the taking.  With Rovers having no midweek game (I knew there was some reason for allowing Leeds to beat us in the League Cup), they should be fresh.  Cotterill and Coppinger were both rested on Saturday so they will be fully rested against fullbacks not capable of handling tricky wingers.

But I'm not going to allow myself to get too carried away.  David Jones will surely have told certain Owls' employees exactly what he thought of their work last weekend.  They are also at home so will pick up some motivation from their home crowd.  For Jones, I am sure it will be win or be checking situations vacant on Monday.  I hope he is checking that column.  I love it when managers get sacked having lost to the likes of Donny!

Enjoy the match everyone.

Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest

Last Time Out...

Grrrrrrr.   It's infuriating isn't it?  I'm a pretty decent and fair loser normally but when a referee gets something so obviously wrong and my team lose as a result, well, I'm grouchy.  What's even more annoying is the reaction of the linesman.  Is his job to assist the referee or is it to agree with the referee? Its a rhetorical question but someone please tell Wayne "weeWillie" Porter the answer.  Porter flagged Husband's foul on Sean Murray.  Fair enough, I'm not arguing the offence.  He was signalling for a free kick when he saw the ref point to the spot.  Not wanting to get "telled off" he quickly changed his mind before Darren Drysdale saw him.  

OK - time to stop being bitter and start to be constructive etc.  Watford were the better team on the night but there's still plenty of positives for Rovers to take from the game.  I am loving the way we are moving the ball quickly up the field.  Its not "hit and hope" but quick incisive passing.

Ross Turnbull again was excellent, although he was at fault for Watford's opener, being caught in no-mans land to allow himself to be lobbed by Lewis McGuggan.   But that aside, Turnbull made some excellent stops and clearly the defence are gaining confidence from him.

But there are also some concerns.  For the second match in a row, Rovers started very well but failed to carry the good start through the game.  

If you take a look at the times of goals and shots taken by and against Donny, the issue becomes very clear.  Half of Donny's goals conceded have been scored in the final 15 minutes while so far, Rovers haven't scored in the final 30 minutes.  Looking at the shot times the trend of Rovers opponents increasing pressure is very clear while at the same time, the number of opportunities Donny are creating reduces as the game goes on.

I'll stand corrected should anyone out there think of other explanations for the apparent drops in Donny's performance levels but I can only think of two.

First of all there's tactics.  Are we trying to settle for the good result our early endeavours realise too soon?  Well I don't think so.  Doncaster's shot advantage over the first hour of games is on average +1.7.  On average after this period, the scores are still level.  I don't see any advantage of settling for draws while you are creating more chances than the opposition.

No, the cause of the problem is involuntary.  We are talking fitness.  Our opponents have been able to change up a gear at the end of a close game, we have not.  This conclusion is also backed by the fact that our most disappointing result of the season came after we'd played Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday against Bournemouth.  Thankfully Rovers went into an international break after that game, which allowed a far better performance last Saturday.

This Saturday we're playing again in the last game of a Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday sequence, and this time we actually played a full match on the Saturday.  Hopefully, I'll be proved wrong and Rovers will play well again...we will see.

Meanwhile...

Forest have been having a reasonable start to their campaign, sitting in fifth place at the start of this one three points off pace-setters QPR.  I wonder how their goal and shot profiles look?

Well, I swear I don't make this stuff up but look at Forest's shot times and you see them cranking on ever more pressure during the match, just like Rovers' opponents have done so far in the season.  The good news is that the opponents shot times indicate that its not one-sided.  In other words, as the game goes on, it opens up.  When I say its good news, it would be if Rovers stats didn't show that their pressure on opponents eased as the game went on.  Shame that!

Goal-wise, Forest do start well, but except for that, the number of goals scored increases as the game goes on - just like the number of shots taken.

If you haven't guessed it yet, with Rovers' goal and shot distribution pattern this season, that's not what I wanted to see.

Tuesday evening saw Forest coming back from 2-down to earn a draw with Middlesbrough.

At the start of this, Forest looked to be really cranking on the pressure. and it was impressive stuff.  Most of the best football was happening on the left side with Djamal Abdoun looking particularly good.  Middlesbrough were surviving by throwing bodies in the way of the home team's onslaught.

But Forest's full on attacking intentions led to them being caught out in the 17th minute.  A shot was blocked by Jonathan Woodgate and 'Boro broke.  With Forest a little thin at the back Albert Adomah crossed and Kei Kamara had the easiest of finishes.

Cue more relentless Forest attacking and 'Boro defending for their lives.  But this time, 'Boro did get it wrong.  A last ditch tackle by Rhys Williams on Radoslaw Majewski was crude to say the least and Forest had a penalty in the 36th minute.  Unfortunately for them, Luke Steele saved brilliantly and 'Boro were able to take their goal advantage into the break.

After the break and if Luke Steele's save from Andy Reid's penalty was good, he was to better it.  A cross from Eric Lichaj was met by Jamie Mackie.  The header was deflected but Steele somehow managed to prevent it entering the goal to his right with a fabulous save low down.

Then their must have been a little déjà vu for Forest.  Fraser Richardson tackled well in defence for 'Boro and launched a long ball out to Marvin Emnes.  Emnes held it up, laid it off for Grant Leadbetter who played a gentle ball to his left.  What happened next was far from gentle.  George Friend, making a run down the left hit it beautifully and the ball screamed into the Forest net.  He never did that for Rovers!

Forest had hardly deserved to be two down.  There wasn't much to change as 'Boro had been attacked fairly relentlessly all game but after the goals, Darius Henderson and Matt Derbyshire were brought into the game as Forest searched to change their fortunes.  And it worked!

The first Forest come-back goal came after first a corner from the right found its way to the left and was crossed back but too far.  The second effort from the right was deadly accurate though and Matt Derbyshire dived to head home off the post.

Then controversy.  Forest nearly gave 'Boro a taste of their own medicine, breaking quickly from a 'Boro corner.  Abdoun put Darius Henderson in on goal and the ex-Blade rounded the 'keeper and then went down.  He received a yellow card for his trouble as the referee adjudged a dive.  We Rovers' fans hate it when that happens to Blades!

But on the very next attack, Henderson was not to be denied.  Lichaj's cross found him inside the 6 yard area and he finished emphatically.

Just one more moment in the game and it was a somewhat irrelevant sending off of 'Boro's Manny Ledesema (at least as far as the match was concerned) for a late tackle from behind on Henri Lansbury. The resultant Freekick gave Steele yet another chance to show what a good 'keeper he is and that was that.  2:2 and Forest probably deserved more.

So What's going to happen?

Donny to start well with Forest becoming stronger as the game goes on (you don't say!).  The good news for Donny, from what I saw of the 'Boro game was some susceptibility in Forest's defence on the break.  Donny break very well and could take advantage of this.  But Forest are fairly sharp in front of goal so Rovers can't allow them too many chances.  'Boro only survived by throwing bodies in the way of shots.  Rovers can do that too but I'd much prefer Forest not to have the shots.

Its a tough ask for Donny is this one.

Enjoy the match everyone.

Watford v Doncaster Rovers

Shock revelation!  hold the front page!

I've found out that one of the stat's sites I was using to provide you with my informative take on all things Rovers, was about as accurate as the old Lada manufacturing method (Measure with a micrometer, mark with chalk and cut with an axe).  The possession data that www.whoscored.com provided was a mile out.  I noticed when they gave Donny a possession advantage when we played Bournemouth of 55% to 45%.  That wasn't the match I listened to so I checked ESPN who had the possession as 37% to Donny and 63% to Bournemouth so not too much difference.

So I've corrected all possession stats to those supplied by ESPN (and the Press association) and discarded all other stats supplied by www.whoscored.com.  My data should now be reasonably accurate.

www.whoscored.com?  They have no idea - that's why they are asking!

Last time out...

Wooohooo! I was actually there so it's not just numbers.  I can actually talk with a little more authority.

Yeah, I was quite happy with what I saw.  It was certainly a very enjoyable game with Donny totally bossing the first half and Huddersfield coming back into it a bit more in the second.

The entertainment value is shown by the shot-count and the minutes of possession per shot.  Those are excellent stats posted by both teams, meaning that there was plenty to make both sets of fans go oooohhhh!

The players that really impressed me were first of all Richie Wellens.  How good is it to have his quality back in the centre of midfield pulling the strings and making things happen?  Then there's Ross Turnbull.  I was a defender of Gary Woods.  Give him time and he could make a decent 'keeper.  Well, his stats last season showed him to be an average League 1 'keeper.  Bearing in mind he was playing for the League champions you have to say that average simply isn't good enough.

But especially in the second half, his replacement was superb.  I never had the slightest palpitations about his positioning.  It was always excellent.  I had a couple of palpitations alright, but these were due to good Huddersfield chances being saved very well indeed.

The last player I'll single out is Bongani Khumalo.   Very composed was what came to my mind.  I was also pleased to see how he reacted to patch things up on the one occasion that I saw him play a poor ball.

The rest of the team were pleasing too in terms of their commitment to the cause which could not be questioned.  David Cotterill probably had his best game in a Rovers shirt for a good while (oops - I said I wouldn't single anyone else out).  Lots of hard work was put in on and off the ball.  It was just a shame the scoring boots weren't on otherwise after the first half performance, we would have been out of sight.

Meanwhile...

Watford were also picking up a point at home to Charlton and it wasn't plain sailing for the Hornets, coming back from falling behind to Yann Kernaghan's penalty to gain a hard earned point.

The first thing I saw of the highlights was two moves down the left-hand side involving Fernando Forestieri running at the right-back and firing shots just wide across the front of the goal.  Reece Wabara could have a busy evening.  Both moves involved frighteningly quick one-touch football.  Definitely something to concern the Rovers.

Charlton's penalty came immediately after the restart for the second half and it was a "stone-waller".  Bradley Pritchard had put Lawrie Wilson through only for Essaïd Belkalem to clumsily slide in scything the striker down.  No mistake with the penalty from Kernaghan and Watford had work to do.

And so they set about doing this work, looking excellent on the counter.  Lewis McGugan and Troy Deeney both should have done better with their chances before Deeney blazed a very good effort from range just past the post.  But the pressure was being cranked up and from a corner, Ben Hamer could only push a good Diego Fabrini shot back out into danger and a waiting Daniel Pudil who had a simple finish.  No more than Watford deserved.

Charlton could have and should have won it though.  Johnnie Jackson was on the end of Rhoys Wiggins' cross near the penalty spot.  With just the goal keeper to beat he blazed high and wide much to the relief of home fans.

It would have been harsh on Watford though.  They looked really good in how quickly they moved the ball when in possession.  This is a good team, make no mistake.

So what's going to happen?

I think we could have a very good game on our hands!  Unfortunately, I have to give Watford the edge on the in-game stats but what we have is two sides that like to work on the counter.  Neither side really relies on a lot of possession but once they get the ball they are keen to get it forward and create chances.    Those stats for the possession minutes per shot currently rank Watford and Donny 1 and 2 in the division.  That said, Watford are better at limiting their opponents than are Doncaster, which is why I give them the edge.

But on that evidence, at least the match should be entertaining!

Lets hope so!  Enjoy the match everyone.

Doncaster Rovers v Bournemouth

Last Time Out...

So what should we talk about?  I did the last League game (well, half game) in the preview before the match against Leeds in the League Cup.  So, should we talk about that game?  It would seem churlish not to so here goes.

Well done Leeds, I think Rovers were well beaten on the night.  With exception of the opening 10 minutes and another 10 minutes after Billy Paynter's equalizer, it seemed from the commentary that Leeds were the better team.  And my final word - what did I say about the team that won the aerial battle winning the game?  OK -  the team winning the aerial battle probably win the match in more than 50% of occasions but I said the aerial battle would be decisive and so it turned out to be.  I get a big gold star!

Move the ball effectively forwards to create shooting opportunities and take as many of your chances as possible while preventing your opponents from doing the same.  That sounds like a reasonable strategy.  So can Rovers do it?  I've looked at the stats below to find out.

So lets start with possession effectiveness.

Donny are the second best team in the division in terms of moving the ball to get a shooting opportunity.  Unfortunately they tend to allow their opponents to do the same thing.  It makes it all very entertaining though.  End to end stuff as the pundits would say.

When it comes to actually putting the ball in the back of the net once we get the chance to do so, it's not bad either.  6th best in the division - yes I'll take that.  Preventing the opponent from doing the same thing? -  Rovers are about average.  

So do we believe that creating lots of chances and then putting as many of the chances away as possible improves your league position?  Well sometimes stats are used to prove the bleeding obvious so here goes.

If you take the sum of the ranking for each of those 4 statistics (for Donny that's 2+20+6+13 = 41) and plot that against the league position for each team, you should get something that's approaching a straight line if the stats and the league position are related.  That's what I've done in the chart above.  It shows a strong relationship between the stats and the league position.  So  - its true!  Now you know!

For Donny - attack has so far been better than defence and the weakest point is preventing our opponents from getting shooting opportunities.

Here endeth the lesson.

Meanwhile...

Bournemouth had a trip up to Huddersfield last weekend.  As Donny's game was being abandoned, Bournemouth would have had pangs of jealousy at Charlton's good fortune.  They were 3:0 down at half time and the game ended with a 5:1 drubbing.  

Huddersfield went a goal up in 14 minutes when Adam Hammill ran at the Bournemouth defence in the penalty area daring the defence to put in a tackle.  They didn't and Hammill somehow squeezed in his shot off the near post.  A little later there was a much clearer opportunity.  A long, diagonal  ball out of the defence found James Vaughan in space advancing on the Bournemouth penalty area.  Ryan Allsopp was caught between coming or staying and really did neither but fortunately for him, Vaughan's finishing was wayward.

But Vaughan was to get a goal before half-time.  Comical stuff really, a corner was tamely glanced over to the far by-line by Tommy Elphick who then jogged over to try and make amends for his poor clearance.  The invitation to cross back was accepted by Jake Carroll who hit the ball into a far post area where it bounced back to the original corner taker giving him chance to improve on his first effort. He did and Vaughan headed in, unmarked from the middle of the 6 yard box.

Five minutes later and Vaughan had a brace.  A simple through-ball finding the in-form striker slipping in between defenders.  This was an easy finish to the keeper's left.

Second half and Vaughan completed his hat-trick from the penalty spot after Simon Francis was very careless in colliding with Jake Carroll.  The ball had gone, there was no danger but it was a penalty.  Very silly.

Francis made something of amends with a cross into the box from which substitute, Marc Pugh headed in a consolation goal for the Cherries.  But Huddersfield saved the best until last.  Adam Clayton cut in onto his left foot before curling a great shot into the top left corner.  They could have had a sixth too when yet another free-header went just wide.

5:1 and 6:1 defeats sadly say it all about Bournemouth's defence at the moment.  The amount of space they are affording championship strikers is simply suicidal.  I also thought that they looked casual when under pressure.  Its all very well looking like a swan on the surface while paddling like hell underneath, but you have to do the paddling otherwise you sink.

Up front, excepting the goal, the efforts I saw the Bournemouth frontmen attempt in that game were tame but were well created.  But its the defence that needs sorting out.

Enjoy the match everyone. 

Doncaster Rovers v Leeds United

LAST TIME OUT

Well Saturday was a bit of a bummer wasn't it?  I'll admit that this first section is a rewrite.  I wrote the original on Sunday and having read it back, I was still chucking toys out of my pram about it all.   Lets face it, I can't do that in front of the Leeds fans so here is the calm, reflective version.

Listening to Paul Dickov's post (almost) match, I have to say he's got it right.  You have to respect and accept the referee's decision to call the match off.  You don't have to think it correct, and with Chris Powell also wanting to complete the fixture I think the correctness of the call is questionable.  But there was a lot of water on that pitch.  At least the decision could be understood.

I'm less charitable about Charlton Athletic FC.  Not the players or coaching staff but the club.  The equipment that was being used to try and save the fixture while it was still raining was wholly inadequate.  This club was in the premier league in 2007 - really ?  Its all the more unacceptable when I read some comments from fans returning from the game.  Flooding at the Valley is not a new phenomenon.  They know of the problem.  When I think of the money Rovers have spent trying to improve the Keepmoat pitch over the years you have to ask why the Valley doesn't have better drainage.

Dickov also clearly indicated that he would be appealing Paul Keegan's dismissal.  Quite right too under the circumstances.  Neither of Keegan's offences involved dangerous or cynical play.  I see no reason for not wiping the disciplinary slate of both teams clean from that fixture.  Lets hope common sense prevails at Football League HQ.

The football statistics websites got themselves into a right tizzy due to the abandonment.  I think some of them archive stats used to create the "match centres" as the match is played.  This has meant some data has gone into the databases that really shouldn't be there.  The teccys now have to get it out again.

Anyway, this is how the match looked statistically as it was called off.  Not particularly relevant but you never know, it might scare our friends from West Yorkshire  a little ;-).  Lets face it, I've seen worse shooting statistics.

Meanwhile....

Leeds did get a full match in on Saturday, visiting Portman Road and coming away with all three points for the first time in 12 years at that ground.

Leeds didn't have it all their own way though and at the start, Ipswich were more lively.  Ipswich had already had a Jay Tabb goal ruled out for offside when they took the lead in the 11th minute.  Route 1 by Ipswich;  a goal kick flicked on by Murphy into the path of David McGoldrick.  He ran at  Leeds' Tom Lees who slipped giving McGoldrick the space to place a great finish into Paddy Kenny's bottom right corner.  But Leeds then came back.  Ross McCormack, looking as dangerous as ever rolled the dice from range, the ricochet fell kindly for Luke Varney who blasted into the top of the goal. 

After the break and it was McCormack from range that gave Leeds' their winner.  Stepping in from the left he hit a hard low shot that had none of its pace taken away by a deflection or two before hitting the bottom corner.  Ipswich pressed hard to get back on terms but Leeds stayed firm enough to keep a grip on the points.

So a good start to the season from Leeds with 2 wins and 2 draws.  The much despised Ken Bates is out of the club removing an obvious distraction and Brian McDermott is starting his first full season in charge.  Expect Leeds to be there or thereabouts this season.

So what can we expect?

Quick explanation of the arrows in that table.  An up arrow indicates Doncaster's statistic to be better than Leeds.  A down arrow indicates worse than Leeds.  The horizontal arrows indicate more or less even performance.

It's very even between these sides.  

Donny have generally won the aerial battle in their matches so far...but so have Leeds.  Its going to be very interesting to see who comes out on top and I think that the answer to that question may well identify the winner.

At first sight the stats appear to be in Leeds' favour but pay real attention to the last two stats as for me, they are the most important.  High shooting efficiency simply means the team takes it's chances.  A lower amount of possession minutes per shot indicates a side that moves the ball to a shooting chance quickly.  Combine good shooting efficiency with the ability to make shooting opportunities quickly and you should win matches.  To show where the sides are in these respects, average possession minutes per shot in the championship so far has been 4.2 minutes and the average shooting efficiency is 9.8%.  

So if Rovers can overcome Leeds' ability in the air, I think they will win.  

Doncaster Rovers Player Stats

 What I am loving about those stats is the large number of tackles being put in by Rovers forwards.  Having watched a few Leeds performances, despite good aerial dual stats posted by Jason Pearce and Tom Lees, Leeds do look vulnerable to crosses.  Rovers have been profiting from set-pieces and crosses especially from Chris Brown's knock-downs so that could be a key contest.

As far as the Rovers defence is concerned, the first but by no means the only thing they must do is stop McCormack.  That will not be easy.  Ross McCormack drops off the frontline to pop up in all sorts of areas.  His pace is devastating and he will shoot on sight - normally accurately.  Due to his movement, I'd see stopping him as a team job rather than a task for a particular individual.  A difficult job.

Anyway - I think we're in for an interesting and entertaining evening.  Enjoy the match everyone.

Doncaster Rovers v Blackburn Rovers

Last Time Out

...or first time out as it happens to be in this case.  Sadly, Donny came off worst in the end but are we disheartened?  Well personally, no.  My impression listening to the match was that the 1 : 3 scoreline flattered Blackpool more than a little.  

The first two goals were disappointing, the third an irrelevance as were the scores still level, it would not have happened.  Good lessons to be learned about things Donny got away with last season that this season will cost them.  The first goal was a case of everyone rushing to close down a shot, but then being nowhere when the 'keeper wasn't able to push away as far as he would have liked.  The second goal was a needless corner followed by crucially losing the man at the back post.

But didn't Donny compete well?

The Seasiders had more possession than us but were massively out-competed in the air.  Pleasingly, all Donny's passing stats were better than their opponents, but the stats also indicate why Blackpool were able to keep Rovers from scoring more than the one goal.  Look at the throw count against Donny.  Blackpool were able to keep forcing Donny into playing the ball out so disrupting flow in Rovers play.  

There's a table of the Rovers' general performance stats.  Up arrows show better than average performance and down arrows worse than average.  Where appropriate, I've marked the best and worst stats in the class in green and red.  The data comes from www.whoscored.com and is sorted in the order of their ranking (highest to lowest).  

I'll pick out a couple of points that I see from the stats.  The two highest ranked players were our Centre Backs and you see them both contributing well to tackling and the aerial battle.  You can add over 60% of the Rovers clearances their stats and you see that they came under pressure but stood up well.

Also worth a mention is Chris Brown.  Yes, he's a little way down that list, mainly due to poor passing but the aerial balls won; the fact that he wasn't dispossessed in the game and  a couple of turnovers won, and you see a man who did a fine job as the lone front man.  He needs support though and hopefully, new signing Theo Robinson will provide that.

Final mention, sadly not so positive.  James Husband didn't show so well.  His passing was off and he made just two tackles.  It wasn't much better looking at his attacking stats.  None of his crosses found their target and he played just one accurate long ball.  Not a good day for James but it would be harsh to write off his chances of stepping up to the championship after one game.

Meanwhile...

Blackburn were getting off the mark with a draw at Derby but unlike Donny, Blackburn have seen action since the opening day, which means of course that I have twice as many stats to deal with (waves of enthusiasm over the ether!).

Just one point out of six was won with an opening day draw against Derby.  Luck only came into that result in that Blackburn equalized in the 89th minute through and excellent finish by Leon Best, but they were good value for the point.  They kept attacking Derby right up to the end even after they had equalized.  What impressed me was how they broke at speed through series of quick, short passes.  Impressive and intimidating.

On to game two the East Midlands are up again in the form of Nottingham Forest who visited Ewood Park.  Having won a point with a last-gasp goal on th opening day, on this occasion they lost the point and sadly, it was a case of giving it away rather than having it taken.  'Keeper Karl Darlow committed himself to a ball he had little chance of taking and instead clattered into Jamie Mackie.  Other players may have rolled around crying for a penalty but refreshingly, Mackie didn't.  Instead he got up and played a quick short pass to Darius Henderson who placed his finish into the empty net.  

Comparing the stats on the two games and I think I've highlighted the key-points that lost Blackburn the Forest game.  They allowed their opponents too much possession.  Blackburn made 50% fewer tackles than Forest allowing them to knock the ball around (high pass success).  On the other hand, Blackburn's possession was broken up.  End result - look at the shot counts.  21 shots for Blackburn at Derby but only 6 at home to Forest.

There's the Blackburn average performance data per match so far and first of all, its good to see Tommy Spurr doing well.  Other interesting points? - Leon Best, like Chris Brown look like a formidable front man but look at the number of dispossessions.  Against Derby he lost the ball just once.  Against Forest it was 5 times.  Perhaps he is worth pressurising.

Finally we see that so far Jordan Rhodes hasn't been involved enough in games.  He's also not doing what he's paid to do and shooting.  Even in the shot-fest against Derby, Jordan only managed two shots.  Lets hope he doesn't suddenly improve tomorrow evening.  

The Pub Team are Back!

 

We've finally done it! Many thought it was simply not possible but in the end, it had to happen. I'm talking about being drawn at home for the first league fixture of the season. The last time it happened was 6 years ago in 2007 when Millwall were the opponents in our opening league 1 fixture. Saturday's match is just the second time Rovers have been at home on first day since being promoted back into the football league. The Millwall game ended goalless but the season of course ended in play-off triumph. I'd be happy to take history repeating itself!

At this point in the blog, I normally rabbit on about the last time out but it hardly seems relevant with it being the first game. Then again, it wasn't such a bad last time out from a Rovers point of view was it? Carlsberg don't do season endings but if they did....Anyway, in case anyone missed it, here's my take on 2012/13 with Rovers.

I have to confess that I don't do closed seasons very well. I seriously cannot be bothered with the wild speculation and pure rubbish that is written in the press and on the forums at this time of year. So, until Wednesday I had read very little about the Rovers. I had however gleaned that they had been to Portugal on a pre-season tour.

 

Portugal? Last season it was Cleethorpes! Touring Portugal pre-season actually sounds like something a proper club might do! Could Rovers be becoming a proper club. You know, with money and everything?

 

Fast forward to Wednesday, just 4 days before we are due to kick-off a championship campaign and there's the pub team I know and love. We had just 13 players on the books on Wednesday Morning (let's face it, most pub teams have more). Micky Walker (who no longer even works for the club) deputizes for Paul Dickov at a live "meet the South Yorkshire Managers" radio event and announces to our local rivals that we're shopping at Aldi rather than M&S. At another press event Ryan, Baldwin and Watson attempt to not answer questions on takeover speculation for 15 minutes when a statement would surely have delivered the same meagre information with a little less cringing from the fans. Tommy Spurr walks away from the club to Blackburn because we were too slow with his paperwork. Yeah...the pub team is alive and kicking.

 

Player-wise, we did manage some late signings. We had to! So we start tomorrow not looking in such bad shape. That old adage about it being important to have your team together for the pre-season was forgotten but it was last season too, and that worked out OK. So it's welcome to Ross Turnbull, Mark Duffy, Harry Forrester, Luke McCullough, Marc de Val, Bongani Khumalo and Richie Wellens. We've got to the starting line. It's going to be a long slog to the finish but, yes, we will have the temerity to compete hard for 21st place.

 

And so on to Blackpool. There are a surprising number of parallels between our two clubs. First of all there's the fact that Blackpool also have issues with the fixture computer (or however they work out who is at home for the first game). Blackpool are away on first day for the fifth consecutive season.

 

Then we have the manager, Paul Ince. Ince, like Dickov hasn't had the best of management careers up to date. After winning a league trophy and a League 2 Championship with MK Dons in 2008, Ince's managerial career has been a series of embarrassing failures. At Blackburn, admittedly, one of the worst run clubs in the country, he managed just 3 wins in 17 games in charge and was fired after less six months. After a "nothing" season back at the Dons, he went to Notts County. Again it ended badly with Ince and the club parting company after a record 9 match losing streak. Now starting his first full season in charge at the Seasiders, many think this could be a make or break season for Ince.

 

Ince has by his own admission been frustrated when it has come to building his squad for the season. He has managed to bring five new recruits on board in the form of Bobby Grant, Michael Chopra, Steven Davies, Gary MacKenzie and Jack Robinson but 14 players have left Bloomfield Road. So Blackpool come into the first match of the season with just 13 fit first team players. Pub team?

 

But it's football and its back - Horaay! Perhaps more people will now start writing about things that are happening rather than things they may believe, feel or guess is happening. We can only hope!

Posted with Blogsy

League Division 1 Final: Brentford v Doncaster Rovers

Last time out...

Aaaaaaarrrrrrrgggggghhhh! It was there! It was right there! Rovers came out onto the Keepmoat knowing that a win would mean that both Bournemouth and Brentford would have to win to prevent Rovers gaining an immediate return to the championship. They came, they saw but were conquered.

The visitors started the better side and had the lead in spectacular style after just 14 minutes. Alan Judge, back from injury side-footed a free-kick to Joss Labadie who hammered an unstoppable shot into Neil Sullivan's top left corner. Doncaster had 75 minutes to score twice and keep the pressure on Bournemouth and Brentford.

Shortly after the County goal, Dean Furman did manage to head in to Fabian Speiss' net but he was clearly offside. Other than that Rovers looked nervous and struggled to keep the ball. Half time was urgently required.

In the second and Rovers were better. Billy Paynter was able to round Speiss but his finish was from an angle where only the near post was available. Plenty of defenders were back and in the end it was a routine goal-line clearance. Tommy Spurr put an effort from range over the bar and Iain Hume had another effort cleared off the line, but like the earlier effort from Paynter, it was from a tight angle with plenty of players back. Perhaps the closest Rovers came was when first Coppinger and then Chris Brown had efforts blocked but in honesty, Rovers' 18 shots did not contain any stand-out efforts as the Magpies' defence proved a solid unit. In the end, a huge opportunity was missed. Rovers will be taken to the wire if they are to win promotion.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 1 Notts County.

Meanwhile...

Brentford had the advantage of knowing as they started their match that Rovers hadn't got the win they needed to force the Bees to require a win. But a win with Brentford scoring more than 1 goal would have stacked today's deck firmly in the Bees favour by making Rovers require a win in the last game. Against already relegated Hartlepool, surely this was possible.

Possible...without a doubt, but thankfully for the Rovers, they didn't do it! Early in the first half, Bradley Wright-Phillips picked a Pools' defender's pocket in his own half, advanced on goal and uncharacteristically blazed the ball over when everyone would have expected better of him. Working to close down Hartlepool in their own half seemed a tactic when again the home side were dispossessed in a dangerous position. With good football, the ball was crossed into the area and played back for Jake Reeves to shoot hard but straight at Scott Flinders in the Hartlepool goal from the edge of the area.

It was the home side that took the lead though, ironically from the Bees giving away possession cheaply in their own half. Pool advanced with Luke James who's cross came to Jack Baldwin. Brentford survived initially through Harlee Dean's excellent block but the ball came out only as far as James who struck a fine finish through the crowd.

Wright-Phillips was at the centre of most good things Brentford were doing. A cross into the box was headed horribly high as the Bees pressed for an equalizer. More capitalizing on Hartlepool's inability to keep a ball in their own half led to an efforts from first Trotta and then Wright-Phillips being blocked. Eventually, the pressure paid off. A long ball to the right wing was just kept in and pulled back for Jonathan Douglas to head goal-wards. The terrific save from Flinders pushed the ball back to the right where it was played in low to Marcello Trotta. Trotta had plenty to do with his back to goal, but he held off his marker to turn and shoot into Flinders' goal.

Compared with the first half, the match went somewhat flat in the second and neither side really created a good opening. Brentford came closest to winning it with Jonathan Douglas heading over and Tom Adeyemi running through to shoot wide late on. But Brentford could not get the goal that would have forced Donny to go for the win on final day.

Hartlepool 1 : 1 Brentford

Earlier this season...

This week we saw Barca lose 4 : 0 despite having 65% possession and everyone marveled at how the Germans neutralized the Spaniards' possession game.

Well, that's nothing! Back in October Rovers beat the Bees despite only having 28% possession. OK, apart from a massive possession advantage for the losing side the two matches had little in common. Brentford's massive possession advantage came not because Rovers' allowed them possession in non-dangerous areas, but rather because they were completely outplayed by the Bees. Highway robbery for Rovers in the end? Well, nearly but not quite. Another aspect in which the games at the Keepmoat and the Allianz were similar was in the respect of how chances were limited for the sides with all the possession. Rovers deserve some credit for that.

But having said that, few in Donny would argue that the better team lost on the day. The home team crafted an early chance for Kyle Bennett but he was closed down quickly and was blocked. Brentford then took over in the most convincing manner. Clayton Donaldson should have given the Bees the lead when he rolled the ball wide of the far post after latching on to a woeful back-pass from Shelton Martis. The breakthrough came just before half-time. Adam Forshaw played a through ball for Jonathan Douglas to lift over the advancing Gary Woods.

In the second half the pattern continued. Brentford dominated the game but significantly couldn't create any real openings as Donny defended deeply. Their best opening fell again to Donaldson after he looked to capitalize on a mistake in Doncaster's midfield. Fortunately, his final touch was too firm and it allowed Gary Woods to save bravely at his feet.

Against the run of play, a David Cotterill special from 30 yards flew into Simon Moore's top-left corner. The act of daylight robbery was completed with six minutes to go when Billy Paynter headed home from Martin Woods' cross. Very harsh on Brentford. Very lucky for Donny.

The season so far...

Brentford's Season

Doncaster's Season

The season has been very similar for both sides. Both have risen into the leading places at the same time and then have stayed there, more or less.

And so we end up where we are now, meeting on the last game of the season. Two points separating the teams with Doncaster having a now irrelevant 1-goal advantage in terms of goal difference. As the table shows, after 45 games the teams have remarkably similar records. Brentford, the best team at home in the league having lost just two games; Donny with four defeats on their travels, the best away side of the 24. As Harry Hill would say. "So Brentford or Doncaster...who are the best. There's only one way to find out. FIGHT!!!!"

...and so to the Game.

So who is going to take that last automatic promotion place today? Well, I don't predict matches other than trying to say how it will go. Obviously, the pressure involved with this one means that the team who prove the best at holding their nerve will win it. In this respect, Rovers failed to hold their nerve last week so maybe they are more prone to failure on the big occasion? On the other hand, lasts week's result took the pressure right off Brentford, meaning last week Rovers had their dress rehearsal for today, while Brentford did not.

Then again, do Brentford need a dress rehearsal? They have had one big occasion at Griffin Park already this season, and did very well in taking Chelsea to a replay in the FA Cup. Nerves and the occasion? You could argue a case for either side.

Maybe we look at how the sides have got into this position, for that has been different.

No team in the league has had more shots on goal than Brentford. To win, they have relied on good approach play to create a lot of chances. Such a game is great to watch and I'd imagine Bees fans going home from Griffin Park very happy most weeks. But when their chances are limited, as despite all the possession, they were at the Keepmoat in October, they can be beaten.

Donny, have done things differently. An average of just 9.36 shots per game is the fifth worst in the league and in the top half, only Tranmere have had fewer. But more of those efforts are successful, especially away from home. Which approach will prove the best depends on what kind of game we get. If it's cagey, advantage Doncaster. In an open game, you've got to like Brentford's chances.

So, its as easy as that then. Open game and it's Brentford's in a tight match Donny? If things were that simple, I'd be making a fortune on in-play betting! Lets have a look at some in game trends (Donny fans may want to look away at this point).

That's the trend of the possession efficiency (in this case lower numbers mean fewer minutes in possession per shot - generally, a good thing). You see Brentford generally better than Donny, but in recent games its been much closer. So Donny will be OK in an open game then? Sadly not. That shooting efficiency that I've been touting has deserted us somewhat of late. In fact, at the moment, the Bees are performing better than the Rovers in this respect. Today, that needs to change!

Reading the Daily Mail's preview to the game, they pick out Clayton Donaldson, Marcello Trotta and 'keeper Simon Moore as key in the Brentford side.

Donaldson's influence is clear and Donny fans will no doubt wish that the two yellow cards that he received against Sheffield United had come one game later to rule him out of this one. Trotta has nicked vital goals of late that have kept the Bees in the automatic promotion hunt. As far as 'keepers are concerned, Moore is one of the best in League 1. In terms of shot stopping, he ranks number 6 but Brentford's football shows his ball distribution is also excellent.

Personally, I would add two players to that list. Jonathan Douglas' experience may well calm any jitters that may be around in the Brentford team today, and over recent games, it is hard to ignore Bradley Wright-Phillips.

According to the Mail, the Rovers' players to watch are Billy Paynter, David Cotterill and Rob Jones.

I read an article discussing the Rovers' home performances this season by albirossi. He sums up the Rovers' strikers perfectly. Paynter will get goals at this level. 13 goals from 52 shots - a 25% strike rate, which is not to be sneezed at. Then there's Iain Hume. Humey is less than half as clinical with just 6 goals from the same number of shots (11.5% strike rate). But goals aren't everything. When it comes to contributing to a team performance, Hume will run himself daft for the cause.

But for me, there's an unsung hero up front, at least by the Daily Mail. Chris Brown has been peerless in this division as a target man. A 19.5% strike rate alone would get him in most teams; his size makes him an obvious threat in the air and he has strength and two good feet that enable him to hold the ball up like no other striker in this division.

Rob Jones has been massive all season for Rovers making most aerial threats from opponents superfluous. But on the ground, can he handle the footballing threat Donaldson and Trotta will provide? Jones is more than just a big centre-back but I worry about him and his partner McCoombe's pace against such players. Hopefully the football brains of this pair will make up for any exposure to pace.

David Cotterill has had an incredible season as either scoring or providing the assist for 30 of Rovers' 61 goals this term would indicate. Nobody in the league comes anywhere near this contribution to team goals. As the article suggests though, Cotterill has not been as effective of late and today would be a very good time for him to find his form.

Anyone else? Is it me, or is today made for James Coppinger? Of all the players in the team, and arguably all the players on show, he has the potential to be the headline-grabber. His performances this season have been OK, but nothing more. It's the sort of occasion that Copps could make his own. If he does, Rovers will win, and we're all in for a treat!

Anyway, it's nervy, it's exciting it's mouthwatering. Enjoy the day everyone!