Last time out...
Aaaaaaarrrrrrrgggggghhhh! It was there! It was right there! Rovers came out onto the Keepmoat knowing that a win would mean that both Bournemouth and Brentford would have to win to prevent Rovers gaining an immediate return to the championship. They came, they saw but were conquered.
The visitors started the better side and had the lead in spectacular style after just 14 minutes. Alan Judge, back from injury side-footed a free-kick to Joss Labadie who hammered an unstoppable shot into Neil Sullivan's top left corner. Doncaster had 75 minutes to score twice and keep the pressure on Bournemouth and Brentford.
Shortly after the County goal, Dean Furman did manage to head in to Fabian Speiss' net but he was clearly offside. Other than that Rovers looked nervous and struggled to keep the ball. Half time was urgently required.
In the second and Rovers were better. Billy Paynter was able to round Speiss but his finish was from an angle where only the near post was available. Plenty of defenders were back and in the end it was a routine goal-line clearance. Tommy Spurr put an effort from range over the bar and Iain Hume had another effort cleared off the line, but like the earlier effort from Paynter, it was from a tight angle with plenty of players back. Perhaps the closest Rovers came was when first Coppinger and then Chris Brown had efforts blocked but in honesty, Rovers' 18 shots did not contain any stand-out efforts as the Magpies' defence proved a solid unit. In the end, a huge opportunity was missed. Rovers will be taken to the wire if they are to win promotion.
Doncaster Rovers 0 : 1 Notts County.
Meanwhile...
Brentford had the advantage of knowing as they started their match that Rovers hadn't got the win they needed to force the Bees to require a win. But a win with Brentford scoring more than 1 goal would have stacked today's deck firmly in the Bees favour by making Rovers require a win in the last game. Against already relegated Hartlepool, surely this was possible.
Possible...without a doubt, but thankfully for the Rovers, they didn't do it! Early in the first half, Bradley Wright-Phillips picked a Pools' defender's pocket in his own half, advanced on goal and uncharacteristically blazed the ball over when everyone would have expected better of him. Working to close down Hartlepool in their own half seemed a tactic when again the home side were dispossessed in a dangerous position. With good football, the ball was crossed into the area and played back for Jake Reeves to shoot hard but straight at Scott Flinders in the Hartlepool goal from the edge of the area.
It was the home side that took the lead though, ironically from the Bees giving away possession cheaply in their own half. Pool advanced with Luke James who's cross came to Jack Baldwin. Brentford survived initially through Harlee Dean's excellent block but the ball came out only as far as James who struck a fine finish through the crowd.
Wright-Phillips was at the centre of most good things Brentford were doing. A cross into the box was headed horribly high as the Bees pressed for an equalizer. More capitalizing on Hartlepool's inability to keep a ball in their own half led to an efforts from first Trotta and then Wright-Phillips being blocked. Eventually, the pressure paid off. A long ball to the right wing was just kept in and pulled back for Jonathan Douglas to head goal-wards. The terrific save from Flinders pushed the ball back to the right where it was played in low to Marcello Trotta. Trotta had plenty to do with his back to goal, but he held off his marker to turn and shoot into Flinders' goal.
Compared with the first half, the match went somewhat flat in the second and neither side really created a good opening. Brentford came closest to winning it with Jonathan Douglas heading over and Tom Adeyemi running through to shoot wide late on. But Brentford could not get the goal that would have forced Donny to go for the win on final day.
Hartlepool 1 : 1 Brentford
Earlier this season...
This week we saw Barca lose 4 : 0 despite having 65% possession and everyone marveled at how the Germans neutralized the Spaniards' possession game.
Well, that's nothing! Back in October Rovers beat the Bees despite only having 28% possession. OK, apart from a massive possession advantage for the losing side the two matches had little in common. Brentford's massive possession advantage came not because Rovers' allowed them possession in non-dangerous areas, but rather because they were completely outplayed by the Bees. Highway robbery for Rovers in the end? Well, nearly but not quite. Another aspect in which the games at the Keepmoat and the Allianz were similar was in the respect of how chances were limited for the sides with all the possession. Rovers deserve some credit for that.
But having said that, few in Donny would argue that the better team lost on the day. The home team crafted an early chance for Kyle Bennett but he was closed down quickly and was blocked. Brentford then took over in the most convincing manner. Clayton Donaldson should have given the Bees the lead when he rolled the ball wide of the far post after latching on to a woeful back-pass from Shelton Martis. The breakthrough came just before half-time. Adam Forshaw played a through ball for Jonathan Douglas to lift over the advancing Gary Woods.
In the second half the pattern continued. Brentford dominated the game but significantly couldn't create any real openings as Donny defended deeply. Their best opening fell again to Donaldson after he looked to capitalize on a mistake in Doncaster's midfield. Fortunately, his final touch was too firm and it allowed Gary Woods to save bravely at his feet.
Against the run of play, a David Cotterill special from 30 yards flew into Simon Moore's top-left corner. The act of daylight robbery was completed with six minutes to go when Billy Paynter headed home from Martin Woods' cross. Very harsh on Brentford. Very lucky for Donny.
The season so far...
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| Brentford's Season |
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| Doncaster's Season |
And so we end up where we are now, meeting on the last game of the season. Two points separating the teams with Doncaster having a now irrelevant 1-goal advantage in terms of goal difference. As the table shows, after 45 games the teams have remarkably similar records. Brentford, the best team at home in the league having lost just two games; Donny with four defeats on their travels, the best away side of the 24. As Harry Hill would say. "So Brentford or Doncaster...who are the best. There's only one way to find out. FIGHT!!!!"
...and so to the Game.
So who is going to take that last automatic promotion place today? Well, I don't predict matches other than trying to say how it will go. Obviously, the pressure involved with this one means that the team who prove the best at holding their nerve will win it. In this respect, Rovers failed to hold their nerve last week so maybe they are more prone to failure on the big occasion? On the other hand, lasts week's result took the pressure right off Brentford, meaning last week Rovers had their dress rehearsal for today, while Brentford did not.
Then again, do Brentford need a dress rehearsal? They have had one big occasion at Griffin Park already this season, and did very well in taking Chelsea to a replay in the FA Cup. Nerves and the occasion? You could argue a case for either side.
Maybe we look at how the sides have got into this position, for that has been different.
Donny, have done things differently. An average of just 9.36 shots per game is the fifth worst in the league and in the top half, only Tranmere have had fewer. But more of those efforts are successful, especially away from home. Which approach will prove the best depends on what kind of game we get. If it's cagey, advantage Doncaster. In an open game, you've got to like Brentford's chances.
So, its as easy as that then. Open game and it's Brentford's in a tight match Donny? If things were that simple, I'd be making a fortune on in-play betting! Lets have a look at some in game trends (Donny fans may want to look away at this point).
That's the trend of the possession efficiency (in this case lower numbers mean fewer minutes in possession per shot - generally, a good thing). You see Brentford generally better than Donny, but in recent games its been much closer. So Donny will be OK in an open game then? Sadly not. That shooting efficiency that I've been touting has deserted us somewhat of late. In fact, at the moment, the Bees are performing better than the Rovers in this respect. Today, that needs to change!
Reading the Daily Mail's preview to the game, they pick out Clayton Donaldson, Marcello Trotta and 'keeper Simon Moore as key in the Brentford side.
Donaldson's influence is clear and Donny fans will no doubt wish that the two yellow cards that he received against Sheffield United had come one game later to rule him out of this one. Trotta has nicked vital goals of late that have kept the Bees in the automatic promotion hunt. As far as 'keepers are concerned, Moore is one of the best in League 1. In terms of shot stopping, he ranks number 6 but Brentford's football shows his ball distribution is also excellent.
Personally, I would add two players to that list. Jonathan Douglas' experience may well calm any jitters that may be around in the Brentford team today, and over recent games, it is hard to ignore Bradley Wright-Phillips.
According to the Mail, the Rovers' players to watch are Billy Paynter, David Cotterill and Rob Jones.
I read an article discussing the Rovers' home performances this season by albirossi. He sums up the Rovers' strikers perfectly. Paynter will get goals at this level. 13 goals from 52 shots - a 25% strike rate, which is not to be sneezed at. Then there's Iain Hume. Humey is less than half as clinical with just 6 goals from the same number of shots (11.5% strike rate). But goals aren't everything. When it comes to contributing to a team performance, Hume will run himself daft for the cause.
But for me, there's an unsung hero up front, at least by the Daily Mail. Chris Brown has been peerless in this division as a target man. A 19.5% strike rate alone would get him in most teams; his size makes him an obvious threat in the air and he has strength and two good feet that enable him to hold the ball up like no other striker in this division.
Rob Jones has been massive all season for Rovers making most aerial threats from opponents superfluous. But on the ground, can he handle the footballing threat Donaldson and Trotta will provide? Jones is more than just a big centre-back but I worry about him and his partner McCoombe's pace against such players. Hopefully the football brains of this pair will make up for any exposure to pace.
David Cotterill has had an incredible season as either scoring or providing the assist for 30 of Rovers' 61 goals this term would indicate. Nobody in the league comes anywhere near this contribution to team goals. As the article suggests though, Cotterill has not been as effective of late and today would be a very good time for him to find his form.
Anyone else? Is it me, or is today made for James Coppinger? Of all the players in the team, and arguably all the players on show, he has the potential to be the headline-grabber. His performances this season have been OK, but nothing more. It's the sort of occasion that Copps could make his own. If he does, Rovers will win, and we're all in for a treat!
Anyway, it's nervy, it's exciting it's mouthwatering. Enjoy the day everyone!
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