Saturday, 13 April 2013

Crewe Alexandra v Doncaster Rovers

Last Time Out...

No! No! No!  That's not what we wanted.  The Banana-skin that was Carlisle threw itself in our path and was duly stepped upon.


Plenty of possession for Donny in the early stages but only a couple of half chances fell for Kyle Bennett and Andy Griffin but still, for the first half-hour, it seemed Carlisle would be of little concern to the Rovers.  Against the run of play, Liam Noble put the Cumbrians a goal up.  It was a free-kick from about 30 yards that Noble attempted to hit into Gary Woods' top corner.  In the end a deflection off the Rovers' wall prevented that precise destination but in doing so, it wrong-footed Gary Woods and the visitors were ahead.

After the break, Donny did try to make amends.  A Cotterill corner was punched clear by Mark Gillespie in the Carlisle goal but only as far as Coppinger who hooked the ball back into the danger-area.  Chris Brown met it and Gillespie showed brilliant reactions to push the ball onto the bar. The rebound then hit Rob Jones and impossibly flew over the goal.  A little later and the woodwork saved Carlisle again from Brown.  A volley this time, from the edge of the area.  

Carlisle's turn to damage the Keepmoat paintwork.  This one was bizarre.  A shot from Jordan Mustoe that looped upwards before dropping onto the top of Gary Woods' bar.  Did he have it covered?  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.   Carlisle were now showing that to their credit, they were not just going to defend their slender lead.  A decent cross came to Andrew Welsh about 8 yards out.  Woods could only take the sting out of the shot and Tommy Spurr was required to complete the easy clearance from the goal-line.  

Carlisle got what their attacking deserved four minutes from the end of normal time.  Possession given away cheaply in the Cumbrians half and Liam Noble breaking.  Donny were logically committing players forwards looking to salvage something so there was little in the way of defence for Noble to beat.  He finished emphatically from the edge of the area with a powerful drive past Woods.

Rovers should have grabbed a consolation at the end.  Woods' long-clearance met by the head of Jones on the penalty spot but somehow placed wide of Gillespie's goal.  It was academic though.  The damage had been done.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 2 Carlisle United

Meanwhile...

King-makers, Crewe had a match on Wednesday night against our fellow-promotion challengers, Brentford but unfortunately they couldn't do us a favour.

Typically fast Brentford attacking gave them the lead after 12 minutes.  A clever back-heel from Clayton Donaldson found Shaleum Logan on the right-wing.  Logan accelerated and crossed to the middle of the area where Bradley Wright-Phillips headed past Steve Phillips.  Bentford were rampant.  A corner was headed powerfully against the Crewe bar by Harlee Dean with Donaldson not too far away with the rebound.  Wright-Phillips also brough a save from Steve Phillips although I don't know how much the Crewe 'keeper knew about it.  

Mark Tootle's effort from the edge of Brentford's area was the home-side's only attempt on the Brentford goal of the half.  It was decent and needed pushing around the post by Simon Moore.

Brentford continued their dominance in the second half.  Donaldson put a free-header over the bar before more good play on the corner of the Crewe area involving Jonathan Douglas resulted in the Bees second.  Douglas volleyed a pass over the defence to the inside-left position where substitute Marcello Trotta applied the finish.  

The evening could not have contrasted more with Crewe's triumph at Wembley on Sunday.  The home-side only managing two efforts in the 90 minutes.  Brentford, menacingly moving to third place, just two points from the automatic promotion places with a game in hand over the top two.

Crewe Alexandra 0 : 2 Brentford

Earlier this season...

Crewe proved themselves a very decent side when they visited the Keepmoat back in November.

It took just five minutes for on-loan Finnish striker Laurie Dalla-Valle to put the visitors ahead as he he latched onto a brilliant through-ball from Chuks Aneke to beat Gary Woods.  Crewe controlled the game impressively.  Woods had to be alert twice to keep Crewe from damaging the scoreline further while for Doncaster, Iain Hume was proving the main threat, if an inaccurate one.

Into the second half and Paul Keegan came closest to bringing Rovers back into the match.  Set up by Husband, he hammered a volley onto the underside of the Crewe bar.  Robbie Blake then brought a good save from Alan Martin and Hume nearly looped the rebound into the opposite top-corner  of the Crewe goal.

But Crewe were the better side on the day and they looked to have scored a second when  A free-kick was crossed into the box where Kelvin Mellor led a queue of Crewe forwards waiting to finish.  Gary Woods got a hand to his header but it was too good.  Fortunately the linesman ruled in Rovers' favour on a tight offside decision.

The second did come though.  Michael West's corner found Matthias Pogba on the far-post and his downward header beat Woods.  It was an impressive performance from Crewe and on the evidence of Sunday's JPT triumph, perhaps more in character  for them than Wednesday evening's showing.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 2 Crewe Alexandra

The Season so far...


14th placed Crewe aren't quite out of the play-off picture.  It's highly unlikely but with the stumbling form of the sides in front of them, I'd doubt if they have given up just yet.

You'd get about 17/1 for them achieving a play-off place so should you run down to the bookies now?  No.  Crewe have been a mid-table team all season.  Their best form was hit in December when they were the 5th best side in the league.  Their results against the top sides, many of whom they have still to play are nothing special.  Against top-half teams they rate 15th in the league.


...and so to the Game

Rovers have three matches to get two wins.  I am confident that should they do this, automatic promotion will follow.  What Rovers do not want is automatic promotion to still not be settled as they visit Brentford on the last day as it is likely that if this is the case, Brentford will be one of the sides still contesting these places.

Crewe, like Donny have been shot-shy all season.  In this respect, the sides are very similar (Donny average 8.98 shots per game, for Crewe the figure is 8.9).  The differences between the two sides is seen in the shots against column and its indicated by that Opponents Possession efficiency (Minutes possession / shot) statistic.  With 12.83 shots against them per match on average Crewe have faced more shots than any other team in the division.  The fact that Crewe's opponents possession efficiency has deteriorated further of late and Donny's is improving could indicate the way this one could go.  

I expect Rovers to go for this game and create a lot of chances.  The situation in the league demands a big performance from the leaders as the remaining matches become more and more important with every passing game.  

Crewe Goal Times
Where Crewe are good is in recovering points.  18 points this season have been picked up from losing situations.  Along with Brentford, they are the best in the division in this respect.  Looking at the goal distribution chart, it looks like opponents profit against Crewe early on and towards the end of games but expect Crewe to do better once past the first half-hour.

The team news is better for Rovers than it is for Crewe.  Top scorer Mathias Pogba is out for the remainder of the season and Luke Murphy, withdrawn after just 30 minutes on Wednesday evening, continues to nurse a groin injury.  He will be assessed before kick-off and his midfield partner Abdul Osman is suspended.

Goalkeeper Steve Phillips is another major doubt having suffered a dead-leg against Brentford while Kelvin Mellor is has a toe-injury that will again be assessed before kick-off.  Centre-back Adam Dugdale is definitely absent, on compassionate leave.

For Donny there is a problem at right-back.  Andy Griffin has back and thigh injuries that are being assessed and with Paul Quinn out, its not obvious who Bryan Flynn will chose on the right side of defence.  

Ex premier league ref Stuart Attwell takes charge of the game.  40 matches this season have resulted in 117 yellow cards this season (2.93 per game) and three reds.  

Forum Corner

Into the final three and its squeaky-bum time.  And after Tuesday, Rovers' bums were squeaking a bit more than they should have been.  Today could have been so much more pleasant.  Excepting Brentford, all results around Doncaster went for us and we could have been really looking at the finish-line going into this one.  Instead, whatever happens today, Rovers cannot assure an automatic promotion place.  The good news is of course that if we can't, nobody can.

My little, daft predictor based purely on points in the bag and last eight-match form has Donny still wining the title but by their winnet!

Looking at the Forums and Belle-Vue Ghost feels sick.  I've been feeling great.  I'm still confident Rovers can do it.  But then I read that thread and was reminded about Cheltenham in our last season in League 1.  Thanks for that.  I feel sick!  I remain positive but it's nervy.

Lets just hope Donny can remain Ice Cold at Alex!

Enjoy the match everyone.




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