LAST TIME OUT....
Have the wheels come off the Rovers promotion-wagon? Is this the plunge to mid-table mediocracy? Rovers have now lost two in a row!
To be honest, I fancied an entertaining draw on Saturday and from what I could gather listening in, I got it half right. It was entertaining.
So in the end, we lose by an odd goal in three to a very attractive Walsall side. Is it time for the hemlock? No, not at all. Walsall were in great form coming into the tie, and started like a train. Just two minutes needed for Andy Butler to get on the end of a free-kick and head in at the near post. Lots of finger-pointing in the Rovers' defence, finger-pointer in chief was Rob Jones. Frankly, he should have pointed it at himself. For the first 5 minutes, Rovers were shaky but then gradually came back into it and I wasn't surprised at all when Billy Paynter slotted home Chris Brown's "knock-down".
Rovers then created chances-a-plenty, predictably most having something to do with David Cotterill, the best of them, a stunning volley against the crossbar which Rob Jones was unable to finish off. But then, somehow, Walsall were allowed to come right back into the game. Rovers were definitely hanging on as Febian Brandy took a stroll through the their defence to score the winner. Rovers didn't roll over but couldn't get back in the 10 or so remaining minutes.
Its jitters time for the promotion candidates. Tranmere, like Rovers lose for the second time in a row and Swindon can only draw at home to bottom of the table Hartlepool. Its all led to a concertina effect at the top of the table, with just a point covering the top-4.
.....Meanwhile
The MK Dons travelled to Boundary Park for the meeting of the League 1 giant-killers. On the day, the conquerers of Liverpool proved too much for the conquerers of QPR.
Dean Lewington failed to deal with a long ball out of the Oldham defence, giving the ball away to Croft who crossed for Lee Barnard to shoot in from a tight angle for Oldham's first. The highlights show three occasions (one either side of the goal) where the Dons defence was charitable to say the least before they managed to equalize. Daniel Powell running onto a fine pass from Jon Otsemobor before finishing confidently. But there was still time for a predictable Oldham set-piece goal before half-time. Jean-Yves M'voto easily dropping his marker to head in a free-kick.
In the second half, the Latics third came after more defensive blunders by the Dons. This time it was Harley heading Powell into trouble. Oldham capitalized with Chris Iwelumo scoring at the second attempt.
On the day, not so much offered up front by MK Dons and plenty of food for thought for Rovers due to the errors at the back.
The Season so far...
As we know, the Dons are currently on a very impressive run in the FA Cup, beating Sheffield Wednesday 2 : 0 in a replay before that 4 : 2 victory at Loftus Road. Well done and congratulations to them!
But in the meantime, their league form has deteriorated. The Dons started the season as one of the promotion favourites having made the play-offs last season but have been inconsistent. In September they delivered the 2nd best results in the league while in November, they went one better. In between these months, 18th best.
For the last two months, they have been in the lower half of the table form-wise and have slipped in the table as a result. With just two league games in February so far, they are bottom of the league 1 form table, two places behind our very own Donny Rovers.
Looking in a bit more detail, the home and away comparison shows the Dons do allow their opponents chances, indicated by a very low 3.6 minutes of opponent possession per shot against. Couple that with the big increase recently in the opponents shooting efficiency and you start to see why they are losing a few.
But as a warning to Rovers, the Dons shooting efficiency has also picked up. They are creating the same number of chances, but scoring more of them. I think Rovers certainly need more than one goal tomorrow.
Season High: 2nd (November)
Season Low: 13th (February)
...and so to the Game
Whoa! That's a new graph Fuzz!
- Yes it is, do you like it? Its a Histogram comparing the two sides in terms of possession. What you see is that the Dons like the ball more than the Rovers.
So there's quandary number one for Brian Flynn. There are two ways to play a possession side. You can play possession yourselves so denying them the possession they crave. This works if you are a possession side yourselves. Can Rovers play possession? Well recent results and performances would suggest Rovers are getting better at this game with Saturday being the exception that proves the rule.
The other way of dealing with possession sides is to let them have it and play a very disciplined pressing game. If the Dons aren't given the chance to make the dangerous passes, why not let them have the ball? Rovers have been doing this all season away from home so I'd suggest this to be a better way of going. I'll bow to Mr. Flynn's experience on this one though!
Back to the familiar goal-times chart and you see the Dons have a habit of scoring just before half-time and so wrecking team-talk plans. Its a nice trick if you can do it! Its just a shame that they lose a few goals in the 15 to 30 minute period.
So what to expect. The Dons will try to keep the ball and may provide an early onslaught. If Rovers weather that, they can expect another push just before half-time, especially if we score.
To win, Rovers need to weather those storms that will come. Then they need to get the strikers performing like we know they can perform away from home.
As I've seen and shown with the stats, the Dons do allow their opponents a few chances. If the 25%+ strike-rate lads turn-up tomorrow evening, Rovers will win comfortably. But if the 12% strike-rate lads we've seen at home of late take to the pitch, its far from a forgone conclusion.
David Webb takes charge of tomorrow's game. He's refereed 23 games so far this season (Championship and League 1, 6 each and 8 in League 2). 72 yellow cards have been awarded including two "double yellows". Only one player has received a straight red from Mr Webb and he has awarded 5 penalties.
Forum Corner
Well, there's been a little unrest in the Donny corner after the two defeats but I'm happy to say most are keeping their heads. There's been some discussion on our Captain Fantastic, Mr. Rob Jones, who in recent games has stopped wearing his undercrackers outside of his shorts. I love footie fans. Jones' appointment to the role of Player-Coach was met with almost universal acclaim. A Leader on the Pitch can just as well become a leader off the pitch was the general con-census.
Lose two matches with Jones not quite being super-human and its time to take the coach role away from him and let him concentrate on his game. Interesting thing is that if you look at Jones' performances in the four matches since the departure of Deano, he was awesome in the first two matches as Assistant Manager and player-coach. Then there were the two less impressive performances, the last of which came after he was relieved of Assistant Manager responsibilities (in other words, his workload had been reduced). But do we need to reduce his role at the club further? How do the fans know he's not simply peed off with not being assistant manager any more? Its typical football fan behaviour. Lose two games and something has to be changed, even if Rovers are in second position (still) and are still in the best position of the top 6.
On the Dons thezone:mk there is more concern. The Dons' league form has dipped alarmingly and there are calls for manager Karl Robinson to go. There's a lot of allegations about the lack of a plan B. Sound familiar Rovers fans? You know what? One day, I'll try my hand as a football cliché-writer! Here's a thing you guys wanting a plan B. Why isn't plan A working? Answer that and you may do better!
Anyway, its good to see at the moment at least, its not a fully fledged lynch-mob waiting for Robinson. Other fans are looking more to the ownership of the club and their lack of backing for the manager in the transfer-markets. It sounds like and looks like Robinson likes to play football. You need players who can do that and if they're not there, it doesn't work. Reference: Sean O'Driscoll's last 18 months at Doncaster.
Robinson himself has asked the players to step up to the mark. Here, I think we could have an answer. This set of players have beaten higher league opposition three-times in cup competitions this season. OK, even if one of them was Sheffield Wednesday I think this shows the players can do a job, but lets not let them start doing one tomorrow. Let them save their enthusiasm for Barnsley in the cup on Saturday. All Rovers fans will wish you well in beating them!
Enjoy the game everyone.
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