Saturday 6 April 2013

Battle of the Rovers

Last Time Out...


Yes, yes, yes....exactly what we all wanted!


After getting the doom merchants screaming words like "disaster!" after Good Friday's match, Rovers did exactly what was required of them and delivered a composed, assured and controlled display against the most dangerous team in the league. It was never particularly pretty against Swindon, but in the end, they took three shots during the entire 90, while Donny managed 11.


The opening minutes of the match saw the defences in the ascendency but Swindon's defence were needing to do more than Donny's. The first attempt on goal for Donny proved painful for Aiden Flint as he received David Cotterill's shot full in the face. At the other end, Dean Parrett was allowed space to shoot bit fired over.


The next effort from Donny required activity from Wes Foderingham in the Swindon goal. A cross that wasn't pulled back as much as expected needed Foderingham to react well as it screamed in to his near post. There followed a penalty. Well it should have been! Dean Furman had his run blocked curtesy of Flint's elbow but the referee wasn't interested.


The closest Donny came to the break through came when Cotterill dispossessed McCormack and crossed for Brown. The Swindon defence intercepted the cross but were in panic and it required a goal-line clearance from Darren Ward to keep the stalemat


Into the second half and Foderingham saved well from Kyle Bennett as Donny continued to dominate the game. The traditional combination of a Cotterill corner being met by Jones with the ball meeting the top corner failed only in the last detail before Cotterill, having one of his best games of late crossed for Chris Brown to bring a brilliant save from Foderingham. The Swindon 'keeper again was asked to show his best as Cotterill hit a 30 yard free-kick toward the top corner.


The breakthrough finally came on 80 minutes. Cotterill's corner was headed into the ground by Jamie McCoombe and bounced over Foderingham and it no than Donny deserved. On the day, Donny were dominant, Cotterill was outstanding.


Doncaster Rovers 1 : 0 Swindon Town


Meanwhile...


Tranmere in the meantime were taking on an in-form Portsmouth side at Prenton Park.

 

In a scrappy first half, Tranmere were close to drawing first blood with Abdulai Bell-Baggie's shot being tipped over the bar by Simon Eastwood. Later in the half Pompey should have taken the lead. Patrick Agyemang's cross was headed down to David Connolly who blazed over from 8 yards when unmarked. Agyemang himself did a little better by forcing Eastwood to push his shot from the edge of the area around the post.


The game had now swung definitively in the home side's direction. They deservedly got the breakthrough when after 53 minutes, Youssin Moutauakil crossed into the 6 yard box for David Connolly to atone for his earlier glaring miss. Worryingly for Tranmere, they barely created another chance all game, not the form needed if they are going to get anything out of the season.


Portsmouth 1 : 0 Tranmere Rovers


Earlier this season...


One of those games where the home-side's fans wonder how the hell their side finished up getting nothing out of the game.


Those stats say it all. Ten more shots and an amazing 21 corners but Donny showed great resilience on the night. Andy Robinson had the first decent effort on goal, just missing Gary Woods' top corner but it was Billy Paynter who came closest to giving Donny the lead, heading James Husband's cross against the bar. Andy Robinson brought a decent save out of Woods towards the end of the half, as he pushed a shot around the post.


Both sides would have been happy with their first half performances but after the break, it was Donny who turned the performance into something tangible. Just three minutes after the break, Billy Paynter was allowed to bring the ball down in the 6 yard area and beat Owain Fon-Williams with an easy finish into the bottom-right corner. There followed a relentless onslaught on Donny's goal and a stubborn hard-working defensive display. But in the 87th minute, the home side looked to have won a point. For once, a hooped shirt did not get in the way of a cross and David Cassidy finished from close range.


Deep into stoppage time, Iain Hume won the game for the visitors. Clever play on the left led to Hume breaking through the defence and scoring from a tight angle.


Tranmere Rovers 1 : 2 Doncaster Rovers


The Season so far...

 

Tranmere are the only team to have spent more time leading the league than Rovers. Their season obviously started brilliantly with 12 games unbeaten. Their first defeat came at the hands of Bournemouth the match before Donny's smash and grab raid on Birkenhead. Everyone was saying they would fade. Initially, when they did in November they had built a gap to the chasing pack and so survived in first place.


But sadly for them, apart from a solid Christmas period, they weren't able to regain that early season form. The chasing pack has now caught and passed them and they now find themselves in their lowest position so far this season at precisely the wrong time to be doing so.


...and so to the game


Just like Bank Holiday Monday, this is a huge fixture for both sides. The visitors have just 4 games to salvage something from the season. Promotion is in all probability beyond them but there is still a chance for the play-offs. To achieve this they need to find form that has deserted them of late.


For Donny, a win will guarantee the play-offs will be the minimum they will gain out of this season. I can't see there being any celebration of this point as it will be seen as a mere technicality in Rovers' position. Since taking charge in January, Bryan Flynn has made no bones about wanting to take the title and Donny are in the best position to do so.


Crucially, Rovers have stabilized their inconsistent home form, mainly by denying their opponents opportunities. Just two goals conceded in their last five games at the Keepmoat. The attack is slightly weaker than it has been at the moment, but the excellent work at the back has meant that this hasn't affected too much.


The opposite is the case for Tranmere. With the exception of the number of chances they are creating, which has improved slightly, all their stats are moving in the same wrong direction as they are in the league table.

 

Top-scorer Jake Cassidy is back at Wolves and Andy Robinson is a doubt having been laid low with a stomach bug. Adam McGurk is out for the remainder of the season so the table of Tranmere's main threats has been significantly reduced. It's tough to see them getting anything out of the game.


Donny on the other hand are likely to be unchanged with no new injury concerns.

In terms of goal times, Tranmere look to be poor starters but they do tend to improve as the game goes on. Donny also are good at finishing games, but don't show the weak start.

 

David Coote takes charge of the game. Doncaster have had the pleasure of his officiating once before this season, on New Year's Day when our opponents were Sheffield United. On that occasion six yellow cards were brandished, which is twice as many as Coote shows on average.

 

Forum Corner


Being in Switzerland, I don't get to see many Donny games and so am always happy when I have the chance to watch a match live. Usually I'm less happy afterwards but on Bank Holiday Monday, I was delighted. It was the first time in around three years that I'd watched Rovers live and been happy with what I'd seen. What was it, 1st April or something?!


The win had everyone reaching for their calculators and looking up fixture lists. The ifs and maybes were being mapped out ad infinitum. It was something I tried before the game and gave up, instead plumping for a simple method of predicting using the last 8-games form.

That's how that prediction method looks now. Donny taking the title with 85 points with the Blades taking the runners-up spot. I'm happy with that as that table reflects more what I believe will happen than it did before the game on Bank Holiday Monday.

 

Now I know there is more to these things than form but that table isn't far off many that are being predicted on the web. Billy Stubbs Tears probably made the best attempt of explaining the permutations in this thread. Without going through it in detail, it's a simple explanation of what teams must do to get past 84 points (Donny's tally if they win three more matches) and 87 points. Put simply, it requires a lot of unlikely results for this to happen. It's looking very good for Donny at the moment.

 

The same can't be said for the other Rovers. Eighth is what my basic predictor is saying, while the predictors I see online have them seventh. The mood on the Paddock is unsurprisingly quite down and not many on Birkenhead are confident about today. There's one thread that speculates over unrest in the dressing room where I particularly like the comment by Devon Exile. Whenever teams go through some dip in form there are some who speculate wildly about such things. For there to be unrest, generally something has to change. New manager, new coaching staff, new players, whatever. My rule is the bigger the change, the greater the probability of unrest. At Tranmere things have been fairly stable. The team is just going through a rough patch with injuries and confidence at the moment. Sadly, it's spoiled a season that started astonishingly well for them but I've every confidence that with an old hand like Ronnie Moore's on the reigns, they'll bounce back.

 

Enjoy the match everyone!

 

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