Sheffield Wednesday v Doncaster Rovers

Last Time Out...

Last time out I was questioning Donny's fitness or more exactly their ability to manage their fitness over the full ninety minutes especially after what we in Switzerland refer to as an "Englische Woche"(a week where matches are played Saturday-Midweek-Saturday).

Did the lads go and prove me wrong as I hoped they would?  I don't know about that but they did manage to get something out of the game against a team that many fancy to challenge at the top this season and a team that are in good form.  I'll take that!

Lets start with the positives.  First of all, Rovers shooting looked a lot better than it has done of late in this one.  20% of shots on target against Watford has turned into 60% on target v Forest.  And of course we got two in the back of the net courtesy of the big cheese himself, Federico Macheda (Macheddar...get it....OK nevermind).

Now, I read a couple of people on the forum stating that even though Macheda scored two goals, he wasn't man of the match.  Paul Keegan was thought by several to deserve that award.  Concensus of opinion suggested that Macheda's chances had been put on a plate for him.

Well, I neither watched the match nor listened in due to being at a rock festival with nothing that could be described as an internet connection so I cannot comment on Keegan.  But on Macheda I will say this.  To get them put on a plate, you have to first come to the table...ie get in position.  Macheda did that very well indeed.  Two excellent runs earned him the easy finishes from which he benefitted.  I thought the second in particular was a great team goal with Ritchie Wellens showing his unselfish streak and great vision to notice that while he had a good chance, Macheda had found a position where it was going to be difficult to miss.

While Donny's finishes were efforts we might expect to end up in the goal, Forest's were nothing like that.  Neither of them gave Ross Turnbull any chance whatsoever.  First Chris Cohen smashed into the top corner from just inside the area before in the 85th minute, Andy Reid did something similar from just outside of the area.

Were there any negatives?  Unfortunately, yes.  From the highlights it was clear that Reece Wabara and James Husband were continually being caught by Forest wide players getting down their outside.  From reading the forums, I'm not sure it was particularly their fault on this occasion.  Rovers played a 4-3-2-1 formation with no natural wide players in midfield.  They had, of course been employing Cotterill and Coppinger out wide and whilst neither of that pair has particularly good defensive credentials, from what I have seen, Coppinger at least does get in the way of opposition attacks somewhat on the right hand side.  In any case, a bit more protection for the full backs looked necessary from what I saw.

The other thing is Forest out-shot Donny 2:1 in that match.  There were quite a few scuffs and mis-hits that let us off but still, they created a lot of chances.  Too many in fact.

A final point is that very lopsided shot profile as the game goes on.  Rovers started off matching their visitors in terms of shots but as time went on, we were out-shot 3:2, 4:1 and 5:1.  OK, there is a good argument that for a long period, Donny were 1 goal up and so had placed the prerogative on their opponents to attack.  But they didn't take too much advantage of any gaps being left.  A shame really, as I did see Rovers have two excellent chances to extend their lead when they did get forwards.

But, we got a draw.  Not bad at all!

Meanwhile...

Lets move on and talk about the Owls.  Well, there's only one thing worse than having won just the one game this season so far and that's what Sheffield Wednesday have done.  Prior to their tonking by Birmingham last Saturday, which we will discuss in more detail, they had recorded four draws on the bounce; at home to Millwall and Yeovil and away to Leeds and Middlesbrough.  Those sides are currently placed 17th, 22nd, 13th and 16th respectively.  Compare and contrast with the draws gained by Rovers against the 6th, 9th and 11th placed clubs and you start to be concerned for the Owls.

Birmingham City played host to the Owls on Saturday and I am sure it was a match where the Wednesday would have been looking for at least a point before the game bearing in mind Birmingham were suffering their worst league start for 25 years.  A 4:1 defeat was probably as bad as it could have gone!

Looking at the 30 minutes of highlights available (for some reason not on Owls' player), the first thing I saw was Michail Antonio making a bit of a nuisance of himself.  First he cut in with a strong run from the left before shooting tamely.  Then he showed good strength to shrug off his marker on the right before playing the ball into the box.  Again the chance ended with a weakly hit shot  - but Antonio,  we may have to watch him.

But I didn't see much effort from Wednesday off the ball in the early exchanges shown by Blues player.  On a couple of occasions I watched Birmingham knocking the ball around deep in Wednesday territory without the inconvenience of defenders snapping at their heels.  The opener came when David Murphy intercepted brilliantly in midfield, simultaneously playing a perfect pass with the outside of his foot out to Chris Burke.  Cutting in from the right, Burke's shot could only be pushed by Kirkland into the path of Jesse Lingard who crashed the ball into the open net.  A second nearly came as Burke played a long ball out of defence that was completely misread by Kamil Zayette in the Owls' defence.  David Green was in on goal and would have scored but for quick and brave reactions by Kirkland.  Kirkland again came to Wednesday's rescue when Chris Burke, who was making a pest of himself on the right, as he has done at this level for years, won a free kick.

Burke crossed and the ball was cleared to the edge of the area where Lingard volleyed in goalwards forcing Kirkland to athletically tip over.  But Lingard was soon to get his second anyway.  Wednesday were simply out-muscled in the centre of midfield as Wade Elliot surged through.  A simple ball to his left allowed an unmarked Lingard to finish low to Kirkland's right.  Lingard completed a first half hat-trick on a dream debut for the Blues.  Again he was unmarked and was in almost exactly the same position from where he had netted his brace.  Paul Robinson this time played the killer ball, another easy one as he was not pressurized at all.

In the second half Birmingham and Lingard's fourth came from a predictable route.  A ball out to the right and Chris Burke who again beat Reda Johnson - twice to be precise before driving into the box to pull back for Lingard to finish.  Four goals on his debut for the Manchester United Loanee.  Good stuff!  If David Moyes feels he needs to recall players to strengthen his squad, Lingard is obviously far better than Federico Macheda.  He will learn more staying with the Rovers!

The Owls' scant consolation came from another familiar championship source, a Stephen McPhail free kick.  This one was about 35 yards out and was lifted into the middle of the penalty area where Kamil Zayette flicked a header into the goal having lost his marker.  Very little positive to say about Wednesday on this performance.  Just a few decent runs by Antonio early on and another half decent run by Maghoma were worth noting.  Other than that, the full backs in particular were awful, surely good reason to start Cotterill and/or Coppinger.  Marking slack, lazy off the ball and casual on it.  Surely Wednesday won't put in two performances that bad in a row.

So what will happen?

While there are no easy away ties in Championship football, and most of the home ones are tricky too, Rovers have got to fancy this one.  Certainly on the evidence of Wednesday's weekend, they are a team for the taking.  With Rovers having no midweek game (I knew there was some reason for allowing Leeds to beat us in the League Cup), they should be fresh.  Cotterill and Coppinger were both rested on Saturday so they will be fully rested against fullbacks not capable of handling tricky wingers.

But I'm not going to allow myself to get too carried away.  David Jones will surely have told certain Owls' employees exactly what he thought of their work last weekend.  They are also at home so will pick up some motivation from their home crowd.  For Jones, I am sure it will be win or be checking situations vacant on Monday.  I hope he is checking that column.  I love it when managers get sacked having lost to the likes of Donny!

Enjoy the match everyone.

Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest

Last Time Out...

Grrrrrrr.   It's infuriating isn't it?  I'm a pretty decent and fair loser normally but when a referee gets something so obviously wrong and my team lose as a result, well, I'm grouchy.  What's even more annoying is the reaction of the linesman.  Is his job to assist the referee or is it to agree with the referee? Its a rhetorical question but someone please tell Wayne "weeWillie" Porter the answer.  Porter flagged Husband's foul on Sean Murray.  Fair enough, I'm not arguing the offence.  He was signalling for a free kick when he saw the ref point to the spot.  Not wanting to get "telled off" he quickly changed his mind before Darren Drysdale saw him.  

OK - time to stop being bitter and start to be constructive etc.  Watford were the better team on the night but there's still plenty of positives for Rovers to take from the game.  I am loving the way we are moving the ball quickly up the field.  Its not "hit and hope" but quick incisive passing.

Ross Turnbull again was excellent, although he was at fault for Watford's opener, being caught in no-mans land to allow himself to be lobbed by Lewis McGuggan.   But that aside, Turnbull made some excellent stops and clearly the defence are gaining confidence from him.

But there are also some concerns.  For the second match in a row, Rovers started very well but failed to carry the good start through the game.  

If you take a look at the times of goals and shots taken by and against Donny, the issue becomes very clear.  Half of Donny's goals conceded have been scored in the final 15 minutes while so far, Rovers haven't scored in the final 30 minutes.  Looking at the shot times the trend of Rovers opponents increasing pressure is very clear while at the same time, the number of opportunities Donny are creating reduces as the game goes on.

I'll stand corrected should anyone out there think of other explanations for the apparent drops in Donny's performance levels but I can only think of two.

First of all there's tactics.  Are we trying to settle for the good result our early endeavours realise too soon?  Well I don't think so.  Doncaster's shot advantage over the first hour of games is on average +1.7.  On average after this period, the scores are still level.  I don't see any advantage of settling for draws while you are creating more chances than the opposition.

No, the cause of the problem is involuntary.  We are talking fitness.  Our opponents have been able to change up a gear at the end of a close game, we have not.  This conclusion is also backed by the fact that our most disappointing result of the season came after we'd played Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday against Bournemouth.  Thankfully Rovers went into an international break after that game, which allowed a far better performance last Saturday.

This Saturday we're playing again in the last game of a Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday sequence, and this time we actually played a full match on the Saturday.  Hopefully, I'll be proved wrong and Rovers will play well again...we will see.

Meanwhile...

Forest have been having a reasonable start to their campaign, sitting in fifth place at the start of this one three points off pace-setters QPR.  I wonder how their goal and shot profiles look?

Well, I swear I don't make this stuff up but look at Forest's shot times and you see them cranking on ever more pressure during the match, just like Rovers' opponents have done so far in the season.  The good news is that the opponents shot times indicate that its not one-sided.  In other words, as the game goes on, it opens up.  When I say its good news, it would be if Rovers stats didn't show that their pressure on opponents eased as the game went on.  Shame that!

Goal-wise, Forest do start well, but except for that, the number of goals scored increases as the game goes on - just like the number of shots taken.

If you haven't guessed it yet, with Rovers' goal and shot distribution pattern this season, that's not what I wanted to see.

Tuesday evening saw Forest coming back from 2-down to earn a draw with Middlesbrough.

At the start of this, Forest looked to be really cranking on the pressure. and it was impressive stuff.  Most of the best football was happening on the left side with Djamal Abdoun looking particularly good.  Middlesbrough were surviving by throwing bodies in the way of the home team's onslaught.

But Forest's full on attacking intentions led to them being caught out in the 17th minute.  A shot was blocked by Jonathan Woodgate and 'Boro broke.  With Forest a little thin at the back Albert Adomah crossed and Kei Kamara had the easiest of finishes.

Cue more relentless Forest attacking and 'Boro defending for their lives.  But this time, 'Boro did get it wrong.  A last ditch tackle by Rhys Williams on Radoslaw Majewski was crude to say the least and Forest had a penalty in the 36th minute.  Unfortunately for them, Luke Steele saved brilliantly and 'Boro were able to take their goal advantage into the break.

After the break and if Luke Steele's save from Andy Reid's penalty was good, he was to better it.  A cross from Eric Lichaj was met by Jamie Mackie.  The header was deflected but Steele somehow managed to prevent it entering the goal to his right with a fabulous save low down.

Then their must have been a little déjà vu for Forest.  Fraser Richardson tackled well in defence for 'Boro and launched a long ball out to Marvin Emnes.  Emnes held it up, laid it off for Grant Leadbetter who played a gentle ball to his left.  What happened next was far from gentle.  George Friend, making a run down the left hit it beautifully and the ball screamed into the Forest net.  He never did that for Rovers!

Forest had hardly deserved to be two down.  There wasn't much to change as 'Boro had been attacked fairly relentlessly all game but after the goals, Darius Henderson and Matt Derbyshire were brought into the game as Forest searched to change their fortunes.  And it worked!

The first Forest come-back goal came after first a corner from the right found its way to the left and was crossed back but too far.  The second effort from the right was deadly accurate though and Matt Derbyshire dived to head home off the post.

Then controversy.  Forest nearly gave 'Boro a taste of their own medicine, breaking quickly from a 'Boro corner.  Abdoun put Darius Henderson in on goal and the ex-Blade rounded the 'keeper and then went down.  He received a yellow card for his trouble as the referee adjudged a dive.  We Rovers' fans hate it when that happens to Blades!

But on the very next attack, Henderson was not to be denied.  Lichaj's cross found him inside the 6 yard area and he finished emphatically.

Just one more moment in the game and it was a somewhat irrelevant sending off of 'Boro's Manny Ledesema (at least as far as the match was concerned) for a late tackle from behind on Henri Lansbury. The resultant Freekick gave Steele yet another chance to show what a good 'keeper he is and that was that.  2:2 and Forest probably deserved more.

So What's going to happen?

Donny to start well with Forest becoming stronger as the game goes on (you don't say!).  The good news for Donny, from what I saw of the 'Boro game was some susceptibility in Forest's defence on the break.  Donny break very well and could take advantage of this.  But Forest are fairly sharp in front of goal so Rovers can't allow them too many chances.  'Boro only survived by throwing bodies in the way of shots.  Rovers can do that too but I'd much prefer Forest not to have the shots.

Its a tough ask for Donny is this one.

Enjoy the match everyone.

Watford v Doncaster Rovers

Shock revelation!  hold the front page!

I've found out that one of the stat's sites I was using to provide you with my informative take on all things Rovers, was about as accurate as the old Lada manufacturing method (Measure with a micrometer, mark with chalk and cut with an axe).  The possession data that www.whoscored.com provided was a mile out.  I noticed when they gave Donny a possession advantage when we played Bournemouth of 55% to 45%.  That wasn't the match I listened to so I checked ESPN who had the possession as 37% to Donny and 63% to Bournemouth so not too much difference.

So I've corrected all possession stats to those supplied by ESPN (and the Press association) and discarded all other stats supplied by www.whoscored.com.  My data should now be reasonably accurate.

www.whoscored.com?  They have no idea - that's why they are asking!

Last time out...

Wooohooo! I was actually there so it's not just numbers.  I can actually talk with a little more authority.

Yeah, I was quite happy with what I saw.  It was certainly a very enjoyable game with Donny totally bossing the first half and Huddersfield coming back into it a bit more in the second.

The entertainment value is shown by the shot-count and the minutes of possession per shot.  Those are excellent stats posted by both teams, meaning that there was plenty to make both sets of fans go oooohhhh!

The players that really impressed me were first of all Richie Wellens.  How good is it to have his quality back in the centre of midfield pulling the strings and making things happen?  Then there's Ross Turnbull.  I was a defender of Gary Woods.  Give him time and he could make a decent 'keeper.  Well, his stats last season showed him to be an average League 1 'keeper.  Bearing in mind he was playing for the League champions you have to say that average simply isn't good enough.

But especially in the second half, his replacement was superb.  I never had the slightest palpitations about his positioning.  It was always excellent.  I had a couple of palpitations alright, but these were due to good Huddersfield chances being saved very well indeed.

The last player I'll single out is Bongani Khumalo.   Very composed was what came to my mind.  I was also pleased to see how he reacted to patch things up on the one occasion that I saw him play a poor ball.

The rest of the team were pleasing too in terms of their commitment to the cause which could not be questioned.  David Cotterill probably had his best game in a Rovers shirt for a good while (oops - I said I wouldn't single anyone else out).  Lots of hard work was put in on and off the ball.  It was just a shame the scoring boots weren't on otherwise after the first half performance, we would have been out of sight.

Meanwhile...

Watford were also picking up a point at home to Charlton and it wasn't plain sailing for the Hornets, coming back from falling behind to Yann Kernaghan's penalty to gain a hard earned point.

The first thing I saw of the highlights was two moves down the left-hand side involving Fernando Forestieri running at the right-back and firing shots just wide across the front of the goal.  Reece Wabara could have a busy evening.  Both moves involved frighteningly quick one-touch football.  Definitely something to concern the Rovers.

Charlton's penalty came immediately after the restart for the second half and it was a "stone-waller".  Bradley Pritchard had put Lawrie Wilson through only for Essaïd Belkalem to clumsily slide in scything the striker down.  No mistake with the penalty from Kernaghan and Watford had work to do.

And so they set about doing this work, looking excellent on the counter.  Lewis McGugan and Troy Deeney both should have done better with their chances before Deeney blazed a very good effort from range just past the post.  But the pressure was being cranked up and from a corner, Ben Hamer could only push a good Diego Fabrini shot back out into danger and a waiting Daniel Pudil who had a simple finish.  No more than Watford deserved.

Charlton could have and should have won it though.  Johnnie Jackson was on the end of Rhoys Wiggins' cross near the penalty spot.  With just the goal keeper to beat he blazed high and wide much to the relief of home fans.

It would have been harsh on Watford though.  They looked really good in how quickly they moved the ball when in possession.  This is a good team, make no mistake.

So what's going to happen?

I think we could have a very good game on our hands!  Unfortunately, I have to give Watford the edge on the in-game stats but what we have is two sides that like to work on the counter.  Neither side really relies on a lot of possession but once they get the ball they are keen to get it forward and create chances.    Those stats for the possession minutes per shot currently rank Watford and Donny 1 and 2 in the division.  That said, Watford are better at limiting their opponents than are Doncaster, which is why I give them the edge.

But on that evidence, at least the match should be entertaining!

Lets hope so!  Enjoy the match everyone.