Friday, 20 September 2013

Doncaster Rovers v Nottingham Forest

Last Time Out...

Grrrrrrr.   It's infuriating isn't it?  I'm a pretty decent and fair loser normally but when a referee gets something so obviously wrong and my team lose as a result, well, I'm grouchy.  What's even more annoying is the reaction of the linesman.  Is his job to assist the referee or is it to agree with the referee? Its a rhetorical question but someone please tell Wayne "weeWillie" Porter the answer.  Porter flagged Husband's foul on Sean Murray.  Fair enough, I'm not arguing the offence.  He was signalling for a free kick when he saw the ref point to the spot.  Not wanting to get "telled off" he quickly changed his mind before Darren Drysdale saw him.  

OK - time to stop being bitter and start to be constructive etc.  Watford were the better team on the night but there's still plenty of positives for Rovers to take from the game.  I am loving the way we are moving the ball quickly up the field.  Its not "hit and hope" but quick incisive passing.

Ross Turnbull again was excellent, although he was at fault for Watford's opener, being caught in no-mans land to allow himself to be lobbed by Lewis McGuggan.   But that aside, Turnbull made some excellent stops and clearly the defence are gaining confidence from him.

But there are also some concerns.  For the second match in a row, Rovers started very well but failed to carry the good start through the game.  

If you take a look at the times of goals and shots taken by and against Donny, the issue becomes very clear.  Half of Donny's goals conceded have been scored in the final 15 minutes while so far, Rovers haven't scored in the final 30 minutes.  Looking at the shot times the trend of Rovers opponents increasing pressure is very clear while at the same time, the number of opportunities Donny are creating reduces as the game goes on.

I'll stand corrected should anyone out there think of other explanations for the apparent drops in Donny's performance levels but I can only think of two.

First of all there's tactics.  Are we trying to settle for the good result our early endeavours realise too soon?  Well I don't think so.  Doncaster's shot advantage over the first hour of games is on average +1.7.  On average after this period, the scores are still level.  I don't see any advantage of settling for draws while you are creating more chances than the opposition.

No, the cause of the problem is involuntary.  We are talking fitness.  Our opponents have been able to change up a gear at the end of a close game, we have not.  This conclusion is also backed by the fact that our most disappointing result of the season came after we'd played Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday against Bournemouth.  Thankfully Rovers went into an international break after that game, which allowed a far better performance last Saturday.

This Saturday we're playing again in the last game of a Saturday / Tuesday / Saturday sequence, and this time we actually played a full match on the Saturday.  Hopefully, I'll be proved wrong and Rovers will play well again...we will see.

Meanwhile...

Forest have been having a reasonable start to their campaign, sitting in fifth place at the start of this one three points off pace-setters QPR.  I wonder how their goal and shot profiles look?


Well, I swear I don't make this stuff up but look at Forest's shot times and you see them cranking on ever more pressure during the match, just like Rovers' opponents have done so far in the season.  The good news is that the opponents shot times indicate that its not one-sided.  In other words, as the game goes on, it opens up.  When I say its good news, it would be if Rovers stats didn't show that their pressure on opponents eased as the game went on.  Shame that!

Goal-wise, Forest do start well, but except for that, the number of goals scored increases as the game goes on - just like the number of shots taken.

If you haven't guessed it yet, with Rovers' goal and shot distribution pattern this season, that's not what I wanted to see.

Tuesday evening saw Forest coming back from 2-down to earn a draw with Middlesbrough.

At the start of this, Forest looked to be really cranking on the pressure. and it was impressive stuff.  Most of the best football was happening on the left side with Djamal Abdoun looking particularly good.  Middlesbrough were surviving by throwing bodies in the way of the home team's onslaught.

But Forest's full on attacking intentions led to them being caught out in the 17th minute.  A shot was blocked by Jonathan Woodgate and 'Boro broke.  With Forest a little thin at the back Albert Adomah crossed and Kei Kamara had the easiest of finishes.

Cue more relentless Forest attacking and 'Boro defending for their lives.  But this time, 'Boro did get it wrong.  A last ditch tackle by Rhys Williams on Radoslaw Majewski was crude to say the least and Forest had a penalty in the 36th minute.  Unfortunately for them, Luke Steele saved brilliantly and 'Boro were able to take their goal advantage into the break.

After the break and if Luke Steele's save from Andy Reid's penalty was good, he was to better it.  A cross from Eric Lichaj was met by Jamie Mackie.  The header was deflected but Steele somehow managed to prevent it entering the goal to his right with a fabulous save low down.

Then their must have been a little déjà vu for Forest.  Fraser Richardson tackled well in defence for 'Boro and launched a long ball out to Marvin Emnes.  Emnes held it up, laid it off for Grant Leadbetter who played a gentle ball to his left.  What happened next was far from gentle.  George Friend, making a run down the left hit it beautifully and the ball screamed into the Forest net.  He never did that for Rovers!

Forest had hardly deserved to be two down.  There wasn't much to change as 'Boro had been attacked fairly relentlessly all game but after the goals, Darius Henderson and Matt Derbyshire were brought into the game as Forest searched to change their fortunes.  And it worked!

The first Forest come-back goal came after first a corner from the right found its way to the left and was crossed back but too far.  The second effort from the right was deadly accurate though and Matt Derbyshire dived to head home off the post.

Then controversy.  Forest nearly gave 'Boro a taste of their own medicine, breaking quickly from a 'Boro corner.  Abdoun put Darius Henderson in on goal and the ex-Blade rounded the 'keeper and then went down.  He received a yellow card for his trouble as the referee adjudged a dive.  We Rovers' fans hate it when that happens to Blades!

But on the very next attack, Henderson was not to be denied.  Lichaj's cross found him inside the 6 yard area and he finished emphatically.

Just one more moment in the game and it was a somewhat irrelevant sending off of 'Boro's Manny Ledesema (at least as far as the match was concerned) for a late tackle from behind on Henri Lansbury. The resultant Freekick gave Steele yet another chance to show what a good 'keeper he is and that was that.  2:2 and Forest probably deserved more.

So What's going to happen?


Donny to start well with Forest becoming stronger as the game goes on (you don't say!).  The good news for Donny, from what I saw of the 'Boro game was some susceptibility in Forest's defence on the break.  Donny break very well and could take advantage of this.  But Forest are fairly sharp in front of goal so Rovers can't allow them too many chances.  'Boro only survived by throwing bodies in the way of shots.  Rovers can do that too but I'd much prefer Forest not to have the shots.

Its a tough ask for Donny is this one.

Enjoy the match everyone.



1 comment:

  1. nice read, the boro keeper is Jason Steele though, not Luke

    ReplyDelete