Reading v Doncaster Rovers

What with no proper football over the last two weeks, I really don't have any excuse than to take a closer look at how we're doing.  I mean, would you expect any less of me?

The important thing, I think we can all agree is getting as many points as you can per game, so I used that as my basis stat.  I then looked at the relationships between points per game and 4 attacking stats.

• Goals per Game For
• Shots on Target per Game For (including Goals)
• Shots per Game For
• Possession Effectiveness For (Minutes possession per shot)

Finally I looked at the same relationships but for the equivalent defensive stat (just take the word "For" in the list above and replace with "Against")

I discovered two things.  First of all, unsurprisingly, the list there is in the order of most important statistic to least important statistic.  Yep, I've just told you that if a team scores goals but doesn't concede goals, they win football games.  And you thought I didn't know my stuff!

The second point is slightly more insightful.  In all cases, the defensive stat is more closely related to the number of points a team is winning per game than the corresponding attacking stat.  So, note to managers - get your defences sorted out!

Defensive Stats

Theres the league table in terms of points per game, QPR top by virtue of being equal on points with Burnley having played one game fewer.  QPR are ranked 2nd in terms of Goals conceded per game, first for shots (on target or otherwise) against per game and 2nd on possession effectiveness.

That's the table explained so look at Donny.  A creditable 15th overall, and 9th best in terms of goals conceded.  But they do concede lots of shots against and shots on target against - a few too many in fact.  So, among the reasons we are doing OK would seem to be a good 'keeper and a defence able to block shots and get their bodies in the way.

Our opponents today Reading?  Also very miserly in terms of goals conceded and looking at the very large numbers of shots against per game in comparison with - well everybody actually they do this in a similar way to Rovers - only more so!

Attacking Stats

But attacking is important too so there's the table of attacking stats.

Donny, as I've said all season are good at moving the ball into shooting positions when they get it.  The rest of the stats are more or less where you would expect them to be for a team in Rovers' league position.

As for Reading, well all their attacking stats are worse than their league position would suggest.  I have a feeling this side spends quite a lot of time on the ball without doing too much with it.

So a final message to both sides - give Alex McCarthy (not Adam Federici?) and Ross Turnbull a good reception today.  It looks like the pair of them are keeping our teams higher in the league than they possibly would be.

Last Time Out...

Danish for the Day!

I was Danish for the Day

I know I was

I'm sure I was

I was Danish for the Day!

Actually, Kasper Schmeichel has completely screwed up my Stats.  I work out things like shooting efficiency by classing goals as shots on target.  That's fine until clowns start throwing corner kicks into their own goals - then the assumption that a goal comes from a shot kinda stops working and my stat loses a bit of accuracy.

Tell you what though.  I'll forgive him this once.  And maybe again if he chooses to do the same thing on the last game of the season.

So a bit fortunate to come away with the points?  Perhaps, but that's not to say it wasn't a deserved victory.  Shortly after the goal, Theo Robinson and Dean Furman both had Schmeichel showing more typical behaviour and in the second half, but for last ditch tackling, Chris Brown would have been on the score sheet.

At the other end, sure Dave Nugent was having an off-day and Jamie Vardy did have Ross Turnbull beaten and the ball cannoning off the post.  But the defence, and Rob Jones in particular were massive. Leicester were averaging 14 shots per game before Rovers met them.  Holding them to just 10 was a great defensive effort.

Meanwhile...

Reading were also faced with a tough task with an away tie at League leaders Burnley.  But for Reading, it didn't go as well.

Which ever way you look at it, dominating possession but still allowing your opponents 23 shots (including the two goals) can't be recommended.  Nor can only getting in 8 shots with all that possession when spending the majority of the game 1:0 down.

I think Burnley's first goal was one  that the Royal's centre-backs will want to forget.  Sean Morrison had allowed Danny Ings to sneak in behind him to score the goal but the major crime at the back was Alex Pearce's very half-hearted attempt to get his head to Kieren Trippier's cross.  

Burnley were pretty much shoot on sight in the first half with a flurry of successive chances.  But Reading would be disappointed.  Throughout the game, their midfield looked to be losing the ball a little too easily.  Ings in particular was profiting and on another day, he would have had his hat-trick.

So, when Burnley doubled their lead in the 80th minute, it was fully deserved.  Danny Ings turned provider on this occasion and slipped Sam Vokes in behind Reading's offside trap for him to slide the ball under McCarthy.

Reading came back though and it was another own goal to screw up my stats.  On this occasion no howler though.  A cross parried straight onto Jason Shackell's knee and ricocheted into the net.

At this point Reading looked to gain a late sense of urgency and had a couple of chances but it was a good and deserved victory for the home side.

For Reading, Alex McCarthy was impressive but he had to be.  Sloppiness in the midfield was allowing Burnley to attack at will, particularly in the first half.  The only impression I got of Reading's attacking was Chris Gunter's ability to get forward.  He looked dangerous on the right.

So what will happen...

Difficult to say.  I thought it would be the case of a possession side against a side that likes to play on the counter but not really.  Curiously, Reading at home do not keep possession as well as Reading away.  So with Donny wanting to play on the counter, Reading may look to do the same.  That should make it quite exciting.

Billy Sharp and Adam Le Fondre looks a tasty combination up from for the Royals while Donny are missing Kiko Macheda.  Chris Brown, I'm sure will be his normal awesome self leading Donny's line and without Macheda, Theo Robinson is going to have to return to the form he showed just after he signed.

Looking forward to it - Enjoy the match everyone!