Doncaster Rovers v Notts County

Last Time Out...

Donny travelled to Crewe and thought it a good idea to give all their fans palpitations before deciding to deliver the result we all wanted.

It was cagey at first.  Rovers probed tentatively at a dodgy Crewe defence, while Crewe, though pegged back for much of the first half, looked capable of breaking away to get something.  Chris Brown headed James Husband's cross wide of the far post; Coppinger tried his luck from range while Crewe's No. 26, Chucks Aneke tried the same.  But these were all half-chances at best.  The first real opportunity was created by Aneke, sliding a ball through the defence to put Byron Moore in on goal.  Sullivan saved well for Rovers.  At the other end, James Husband did have the ball in the net as he latched onto Iain Hume's through-ball.  The linesman ruled Husband had timed his run too soon.  It was a close run thing.

Hume was proving to be Donny's most creative and threatening player and from point blank range, he tried to improvise a finish from Rob Jones' flick.  Superb reflexes from Alan Martin denied Rovers and earned the 'keeper a sporting "low-5" from Hume.

Nine minutes into the second half and Crewe took the lead.  Hume gave the ball away cheaply in midfield to the impressive Aneke.  He duly slipped in Max Clayton who beat Sullivan low to his right.  Time for Rovers' fans to get nervous.

They pressed and were denied again by the linesman's flag though this time less controversially with Chris Brown clearly offside as he turned in Dean Furman's scuffed shot.  There followed a substitution and a controversial one.  The introduction of Billy Paynter was expected but for Hume who had up to this point in the game proven to be Rovers' main threat?  Many doubted the decision and Hume certainly wasn't impressed.

But Paynter's addition was to change the game.  First he ran with the ball into space at the edge of the area and hit a shot into Martin's bottom-left corner.  Four minutes later, and McCoombe flicked on John Lundstram's lofted ball into the area.  There was Paynter to redirect the ball into the bottom corner and Donny had the lead with 20 minutes remaining.

It was still nervy for Donny.  Crewe substitute Oliver Turton clipped the outside of Neil Sullivan's post, but the league leaders held on for a vital win.  

Crewe Alexandra 1 : 2 Doncaster Rovers

Meanwhile...

Wins for Brentford, Sheffield United and Bournemouth underlined how vital that result was for Donny.

In a less vital game, Notts County faced Colchester United at Meadow Lane.

Early on and Colchester were nearly gifted the lead when possession was given away by the home side in their own half.  The resulting shot was pushed around the post by Bartosz Bialkowski.  From the resulting corner, Jabo Ibehre should have done much better as he headed over while unmarked in the six-yard box.  

At the other end and Jamal Campbell-Ryce attempted and nearly achieved the spectacular, beating his man before trying one from 30 yards that flew just wide of the far post.  After 18 minutes a series of headers flicked the ball from midfield to the Magpie's right-wing in an attacking position.  Curtis Thompson crossed and Jeff Hughes shot at full stretch had enough on it for Sam Walker only to be able to push it further into his own net.

But the Us had been decent up until this point and they deservedly equalized.  Good football on the left moved the ball to Andrew Hughes who crossed for Jabo Ibehre to have the simplest of tap-ins.

Into the second period and Campbell-Ryce was still trying to score a screamer and with efforts as good as he is capable, why not?  From 25 yards he had Walker scrambling to save at the near post.  It took until the 77th minute for County to retake the lead.  A corner found Yoann Arquin unmarked about 9 yards out and a header was put into the top corner.  The Magpies finished the match in injury time.  Enoch Showumni played a through-ball for substitute Romello Nangell to score his first professional goal.

County looked susceptible in defence at times but there's no denying their potency up front with Campbell-Ryce, Arquin and Showumni looking a handful at times.

Notts County 3 : 1 Colchester United

Earlier this season...

Donny made the short trip down to Nottingham and came away with all the points in an impressive victory.

The first half was pretty dismal, only enlightened when Iain Hume dispossessed Ashley Eastham in the midfield and raced though to shoot narrowly wide.  

In the second and after 58 minutes, Rovers' should have led.  Cotterill floated a free-kick into Tommy Spurr who headed back across goal for Kyle Bennett to head a long way over the County bar from about 3 yards.  But on 61 minutes, Bennett made amends.  A good through-ball found David Syers who chipped in a cross for Paul Keegan to head into the bottom corner.  Two minutes later and it was two-nil.  A long ball from midfield found Hume who in turn found Chris Brown just inside the area.  There was still plenty for Brown to do, but he did it.  A little trickery gave him the space to shoot into the near bottom corner.

A good win for Donny away from home against a side one place above them in the league at the time.

Notts County 0 : 2 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so far...

It all started so well for County but in the end, they have failed to deliver on their early promise.  In their first 9 games, the Magpies were only beaten the once and notched five wins.  But all season, they've never managed more than two victories in a row.  Compare with Rovers, who have managed four victories in a row once and three a further twice, and you see the difference between mid-table and table leaders.

In the end County have too many draws on their slate.  Sixteen in all.  Only one side has more, Sheffield United (how crucial could that prove this season?).  Lately, County have had arguably their worst run of the season, losing three times in a row before that win last week.  I noticed that these three defeats came against leading sides (Bournemouth, Yeovil and Brentford) so do they have an issue aginst the better side in the league.  It would seem so!  Against the top-half sides County have accumulated only 14 of their 61points.  In this respect they are 20th best in the league, a far cry from their overall 12th position.

Season High: 1st (September)
Season Low: 14th (January)

...and so to the Game

Well, as is always the case in football, thousands of permutations of results end up coming down to quite simple scenarios as the number of games remaining reduces.

If Donny win tomorrow and neither Bournemouth nor Brentford can match that result, crack open the Champagne for we are champions!

If Donny win and either Bournemouth or Brentford do not win its worth at least a few pints as Donny are promoted with a shot the title during the last match of the season.

Honestly?  I can't see Brentford doing anything other than beating already relegated Hartlepool.  Bournemouth should also beat Carlisle at home.  Wait a minute...we should have beaten Carlisle at home.  Can lightening strike twice?

But let's not get too carried away.  First of all, we have to beat Notts County.  As I've hinted, I wasn't at all impressed with their defence but going forward, they are certainly good enough.  

That said, the Magpies haven't won since January on their travels but they have a nasty (for everyone) habit of getting away-draws.  Eleven so far this season, which is two more than anyone else.  

The goal-time distribution for the Magpies shows that goals at both ends increase in frequncey as the game goes on.  This is pretty standard among football teams.  It's also what is to be expected as teams push more to win as less time remains.

As far as injuries are concerned, County are bolstered by the return to the squad of Alan Judge after suspension.  How important is he?  Look right!

Neal Bishop is also likely to be in the squad but after having seen his youngsters perform well against Colchester, Chris Kiwomya has a decision to make as to whether to keep faith with Curtis Thompson, Tyrell Waite, Haydn Hollis and Romello Nangle.

For Donny, Gary Woods could return after missing out against Crewe and Rovers' right-back woes continue so expect James Husband to continue to deputize in that position.  Dave Syers is an outside chance for a comeback but I don't see why.  Furman and Lundstram are proving a very able central midfield partnership.

Not a straightforward task for the Rovers tomorrow, but their situation could not provide any more motivation to the team.  As long as nerves do not kick-in, I think they will do the job.

The referee is Philip Gibbs.  Gibbs has taken charge more often in the Championship of late, which is good news on such a vital fixture.  He has taken charge of matches involving both Donny and County this season.  The Donny game was against Stevenage at the Keepmoat back in September.  Five yellows were shown during that match while the County game, at Coventry in October resulted in just two yellows.  On average Mr Gibbs shows a modest 2.5 Yellow cards per game and has dismissed just three players in 37 matches this season.

Forum Corner

The Ghost has caught my eye for the second week running with his version of the Masterchef invention test (yeah - I like Masterchef).  Combine the promotion squad of 2007/08 with today's candidates to make the best squad.  Inventive!

But after acknowledging inventiveness, now I must fall out with the Ghost's choices.  No place for James Hayter (not even on the bench).  Tommy Spurr gets the nod against the sweet left foot of Gareth Roberts?  Neither Graham Lee nor Gordon Greer worth a place on the bench?  Some funny choices there!

There's also a debate on pitch invasions, which given the position Rovers are in, could be relevant.  John Ryan wants fans to stay off the grass while looking at the thread, the majority of fans do not agree.

I was threatened with a premature death by my dad were I to set foot on the Belle Vue turf as a lad and I've therefore grown up with the firm belief that the pitch is for players and match officials.  Not fans.  Clapping politely when if we win promotion?  Not at all!  Go nuts!  Go nuts in the stands but keep off the grass.  Failure to do so could result in some FL official deciding the club failed to control their fans and levying a fine.  Harsh?  Of course, but why take the risk?

Anyway, regardless - lets enjoy the day and hopefully, it will be a great day in Donny history!

Crewe Alexandra v Doncaster Rovers

Last Time Out...

No! No! No!  That's not what we wanted.  The Banana-skin that was Carlisle threw itself in our path and was duly stepped upon.

Plenty of possession for Donny in the early stages but only a couple of half chances fell for Kyle Bennett and Andy Griffin but still, for the first half-hour, it seemed Carlisle would be of little concern to the Rovers.  Against the run of play, Liam Noble put the Cumbrians a goal up.  It was a free-kick from about 30 yards that Noble attempted to hit into Gary Woods' top corner.  In the end a deflection off the Rovers' wall prevented that precise destination but in doing so, it wrong-footed Gary Woods and the visitors were ahead.

After the break, Donny did try to make amends.  A Cotterill corner was punched clear by Mark Gillespie in the Carlisle goal but only as far as Coppinger who hooked the ball back into the danger-area.  Chris Brown met it and Gillespie showed brilliant reactions to push the ball onto the bar. The rebound then hit Rob Jones and impossibly flew over the goal.  A little later and the woodwork saved Carlisle again from Brown.  A volley this time, from the edge of the area.  

Carlisle's turn to damage the Keepmoat paintwork.  This one was bizarre.  A shot from Jordan Mustoe that looped upwards before dropping onto the top of Gary Woods' bar.  Did he have it covered?  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.   Carlisle were now showing that to their credit, they were not just going to defend their slender lead.  A decent cross came to Andrew Welsh about 8 yards out.  Woods could only take the sting out of the shot and Tommy Spurr was required to complete the easy clearance from the goal-line.  

Carlisle got what their attacking deserved four minutes from the end of normal time.  Possession given away cheaply in the Cumbrians half and Liam Noble breaking.  Donny were logically committing players forwards looking to salvage something so there was little in the way of defence for Noble to beat.  He finished emphatically from the edge of the area with a powerful drive past Woods.

Rovers should have grabbed a consolation at the end.  Woods' long-clearance met by the head of Jones on the penalty spot but somehow placed wide of Gillespie's goal.  It was academic though.  The damage had been done.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 2 Carlisle United

Meanwhile...

King-makers, Crewe had a match on Wednesday night against our fellow-promotion challengers, Brentford but unfortunately they couldn't do us a favour.

Typically fast Brentford attacking gave them the lead after 12 minutes.  A clever back-heel from Clayton Donaldson found Shaleum Logan on the right-wing.  Logan accelerated and crossed to the middle of the area where Bradley Wright-Phillips headed past Steve Phillips.  Bentford were rampant.  A corner was headed powerfully against the Crewe bar by Harlee Dean with Donaldson not too far away with the rebound.  Wright-Phillips also brough a save from Steve Phillips although I don't know how much the Crewe 'keeper knew about it.  

Mark Tootle's effort from the edge of Brentford's area was the home-side's only attempt on the Brentford goal of the half.  It was decent and needed pushing around the post by Simon Moore.

Brentford continued their dominance in the second half.  Donaldson put a free-header over the bar before more good play on the corner of the Crewe area involving Jonathan Douglas resulted in the Bees second.  Douglas volleyed a pass over the defence to the inside-left position where substitute Marcello Trotta applied the finish.  

The evening could not have contrasted more with Crewe's triumph at Wembley on Sunday.  The home-side only managing two efforts in the 90 minutes.  Brentford, menacingly moving to third place, just two points from the automatic promotion places with a game in hand over the top two.

Crewe Alexandra 0 : 2 Brentford

Earlier this season...

Crewe proved themselves a very decent side when they visited the Keepmoat back in November.

It took just five minutes for on-loan Finnish striker Laurie Dalla-Valle to put the visitors ahead as he he latched onto a brilliant through-ball from Chuks Aneke to beat Gary Woods.  Crewe controlled the game impressively.  Woods had to be alert twice to keep Crewe from damaging the scoreline further while for Doncaster, Iain Hume was proving the main threat, if an inaccurate one.

Into the second half and Paul Keegan came closest to bringing Rovers back into the match.  Set up by Husband, he hammered a volley onto the underside of the Crewe bar.  Robbie Blake then brought a good save from Alan Martin and Hume nearly looped the rebound into the opposite top-corner  of the Crewe goal.

But Crewe were the better side on the day and they looked to have scored a second when  A free-kick was crossed into the box where Kelvin Mellor led a queue of Crewe forwards waiting to finish.  Gary Woods got a hand to his header but it was too good.  Fortunately the linesman ruled in Rovers' favour on a tight offside decision.

The second did come though.  Michael West's corner found Matthias Pogba on the far-post and his downward header beat Woods.  It was an impressive performance from Crewe and on the evidence of Sunday's JPT triumph, perhaps more in character  for them than Wednesday evening's showing.

Doncaster Rovers 0 : 2 Crewe Alexandra

The Season so far...

14th placed Crewe aren't quite out of the play-off picture.  It's highly unlikely but with the stumbling form of the sides in front of them, I'd doubt if they have given up just yet.

You'd get about 17/1 for them achieving a play-off place so should you run down to the bookies now?  No.  Crewe have been a mid-table team all season.  Their best form was hit in December when they were the 5th best side in the league.  Their results against the top sides, many of whom they have still to play are nothing special.  Against top-half teams they rate 15th in the league.

...and so to the Game

Rovers have three matches to get two wins.  I am confident that should they do this, automatic promotion will follow.  What Rovers do not want is automatic promotion to still not be settled as they visit Brentford on the last day as it is likely that if this is the case, Brentford will be one of the sides still contesting these places.

Crewe, like Donny have been shot-shy all season.  In this respect, the sides are very similar (Donny average 8.98 shots per game, for Crewe the figure is 8.9).  The differences between the two sides is seen in the shots against column and its indicated by that Opponents Possession efficiency (Minutes possession / shot) statistic.  With 12.83 shots against them per match on average Crewe have faced more shots than any other team in the division.  The fact that Crewe's opponents possession efficiency has deteriorated further of late and Donny's is improving could indicate the way this one could go.  

I expect Rovers to go for this game and create a lot of chances.  The situation in the league demands a big performance from the leaders as the remaining matches become more and more important with every passing game.  

Crewe Goal Times

Where Crewe are good is in recovering points.  18 points this season have been picked up from losing situations.  Along with Brentford, they are the best in the division in this respect.  Looking at the goal distribution chart, it looks like opponents profit against Crewe early on and towards the end of games but expect Crewe to do better once past the first half-hour.

The team news is better for Rovers than it is for Crewe.  Top scorer Mathias Pogba is out for the remainder of the season and Luke Murphy, withdrawn after just 30 minutes on Wednesday evening, continues to nurse a groin injury.  He will be assessed before kick-off and his midfield partner Abdul Osman is suspended.

Goalkeeper Steve Phillips is another major doubt having suffered a dead-leg against Brentford while Kelvin Mellor is has a toe-injury that will again be assessed before kick-off.  Centre-back Adam Dugdale is definitely absent, on compassionate leave.

For Donny there is a problem at right-back.  Andy Griffin has back and thigh injuries that are being assessed and with Paul Quinn out, its not obvious who Bryan Flynn will chose on the right side of defence.  

Ex premier league ref Stuart Attwell takes charge of the game.  40 matches this season have resulted in 117 yellow cards this season (2.93 per game) and three reds.  

Forum Corner

Into the final three and its squeaky-bum time.  And after Tuesday, Rovers' bums were squeaking a bit more than they should have been.  Today could have been so much more pleasant.  Excepting Brentford, all results around Doncaster went for us and we could have been really looking at the finish-line going into this one.  Instead, whatever happens today, Rovers cannot assure an automatic promotion place.  The good news is of course that if we can't, nobody can.

My little, daft predictor based purely on points in the bag and last eight-match form has Donny still wining the title but by their winnet!

Looking at the Forums and Belle-Vue Ghost feels sick.  I've been feeling great.  I'm still confident Rovers can do it.  But then I read that thread and was reminded about Cheltenham in our last season in League 1.  Thanks for that.  I feel sick!  I remain positive but it's nervy.

Lets just hope Donny can remain Ice Cold at Alex!

Enjoy the match everyone.

Battle of the Rovers

Last Time Out...

Yes, yes, yes....exactly what we all wanted!

After getting the doom merchants screaming words like "disaster!" after Good Friday's match, Rovers did exactly what was required of them and delivered a composed, assured and controlled display against the most dangerous team in the league. It was never particularly pretty against Swindon, but in the end, they took three shots during the entire 90, while Donny managed 11.

The opening minutes of the match saw the defences in the ascendency but Swindon's defence were needing to do more than Donny's. The first attempt on goal for Donny proved painful for Aiden Flint as he received David Cotterill's shot full in the face. At the other end, Dean Parrett was allowed space to shoot bit fired over.

The next effort from Donny required activity from Wes Foderingham in the Swindon goal. A cross that wasn't pulled back as much as expected needed Foderingham to react well as it screamed in to his near post. There followed a penalty. Well it should have been! Dean Furman had his run blocked curtesy of Flint's elbow but the referee wasn't interested.

The closest Donny came to the break through came when Cotterill dispossessed McCormack and crossed for Brown. The Swindon defence intercepted the cross but were in panic and it required a goal-line clearance from Darren Ward to keep the stalemat

Into the second half and Foderingham saved well from Kyle Bennett as Donny continued to dominate the game. The traditional combination of a Cotterill corner being met by Jones with the ball meeting the top corner failed only in the last detail before Cotterill, having one of his best games of late crossed for Chris Brown to bring a brilliant save from Foderingham. The Swindon 'keeper again was asked to show his best as Cotterill hit a 30 yard free-kick toward the top corner.

The breakthrough finally came on 80 minutes. Cotterill's corner was headed into the ground by Jamie McCoombe and bounced over Foderingham and it no than Donny deserved. On the day, Donny were dominant, Cotterill was outstanding.

Doncaster Rovers 1 : 0 Swindon Town

Meanwhile...

Tranmere in the meantime were taking on an in-form Portsmouth side at Prenton Park.

 

In a scrappy first half, Tranmere were close to drawing first blood with Abdulai Bell-Baggie's shot being tipped over the bar by Simon Eastwood. Later in the half Pompey should have taken the lead. Patrick Agyemang's cross was headed down to David Connolly who blazed over from 8 yards when unmarked. Agyemang himself did a little better by forcing Eastwood to push his shot from the edge of the area around the post.

The game had now swung definitively in the home side's direction. They deservedly got the breakthrough when after 53 minutes, Youssin Moutauakil crossed into the 6 yard box for David Connolly to atone for his earlier glaring miss. Worryingly for Tranmere, they barely created another chance all game, not the form needed if they are going to get anything out of the season.

Portsmouth 1 : 0 Tranmere Rovers

Earlier this season...

One of those games where the home-side's fans wonder how the hell their side finished up getting nothing out of the game.

Those stats say it all. Ten more shots and an amazing 21 corners but Donny showed great resilience on the night. Andy Robinson had the first decent effort on goal, just missing Gary Woods' top corner but it was Billy Paynter who came closest to giving Donny the lead, heading James Husband's cross against the bar. Andy Robinson brought a decent save out of Woods towards the end of the half, as he pushed a shot around the post.

Both sides would have been happy with their first half performances but after the break, it was Donny who turned the performance into something tangible. Just three minutes after the break, Billy Paynter was allowed to bring the ball down in the 6 yard area and beat Owain Fon-Williams with an easy finish into the bottom-right corner. There followed a relentless onslaught on Donny's goal and a stubborn hard-working defensive display. But in the 87th minute, the home side looked to have won a point. For once, a hooped shirt did not get in the way of a cross and David Cassidy finished from close range.

Deep into stoppage time, Iain Hume won the game for the visitors. Clever play on the left led to Hume breaking through the defence and scoring from a tight angle.

Tranmere Rovers 1 : 2 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so far...

 

Tranmere are the only team to have spent more time leading the league than Rovers. Their season obviously started brilliantly with 12 games unbeaten. Their first defeat came at the hands of Bournemouth the match before Donny's smash and grab raid on Birkenhead. Everyone was saying they would fade. Initially, when they did in November they had built a gap to the chasing pack and so survived in first place.

But sadly for them, apart from a solid Christmas period, they weren't able to regain that early season form. The chasing pack has now caught and passed them and they now find themselves in their lowest position so far this season at precisely the wrong time to be doing so.

...and so to the game

Just like Bank Holiday Monday, this is a huge fixture for both sides. The visitors have just 4 games to salvage something from the season. Promotion is in all probability beyond them but there is still a chance for the play-offs. To achieve this they need to find form that has deserted them of late.

For Donny, a win will guarantee the play-offs will be the minimum they will gain out of this season. I can't see there being any celebration of this point as it will be seen as a mere technicality in Rovers' position. Since taking charge in January, Bryan Flynn has made no bones about wanting to take the title and Donny are in the best position to do so.

Crucially, Rovers have stabilized their inconsistent home form, mainly by denying their opponents opportunities. Just two goals conceded in their last five games at the Keepmoat. The attack is slightly weaker than it has been at the moment, but the excellent work at the back has meant that this hasn't affected too much.

The opposite is the case for Tranmere. With the exception of the number of chances they are creating, which has improved slightly, all their stats are moving in the same wrong direction as they are in the league table.

 

Top-scorer Jake Cassidy is back at Wolves and Andy Robinson is a doubt having been laid low with a stomach bug. Adam McGurk is out for the remainder of the season so the table of Tranmere's main threats has been significantly reduced. It's tough to see them getting anything out of the game.

Donny on the other hand are likely to be unchanged with no new injury concerns.

In terms of goal times, Tranmere look to be poor starters but they do tend to improve as the game goes on. Donny also are good at finishing games, but don't show the weak start.

 

David Coote takes charge of the game. Doncaster have had the pleasure of his officiating once before this season, on New Year's Day when our opponents were Sheffield United. On that occasion six yellow cards were brandished, which is twice as many as Coote shows on average.

 

Forum Corner

Being in Switzerland, I don't get to see many Donny games and so am always happy when I have the chance to watch a match live. Usually I'm less happy afterwards but on Bank Holiday Monday, I was delighted. It was the first time in around three years that I'd watched Rovers live and been happy with what I'd seen. What was it, 1st April or something?!

The win had everyone reaching for their calculators and looking up fixture lists. The ifs and maybes were being mapped out ad infinitum. It was something I tried before the game and gave up, instead plumping for a simple method of predicting using the last 8-games form.

That's how that prediction method looks now. Donny taking the title with 85 points with the Blades taking the runners-up spot. I'm happy with that as that table reflects more what I believe will happen than it did before the game on Bank Holiday Monday.

 

Now I know there is more to these things than form but that table isn't far off many that are being predicted on the web. Billy Stubbs Tears probably made the best attempt of explaining the permutations in this thread. Without going through it in detail, it's a simple explanation of what teams must do to get past 84 points (Donny's tally if they win three more matches) and 87 points. Put simply, it requires a lot of unlikely results for this to happen. It's looking very good for Donny at the moment.

 

The same can't be said for the other Rovers. Eighth is what my basic predictor is saying, while the predictors I see online have them seventh. The mood on the Paddock is unsurprisingly quite down and not many on Birkenhead are confident about today. There's one thread that speculates over unrest in the dressing room where I particularly like the comment by Devon Exile. Whenever teams go through some dip in form there are some who speculate wildly about such things. For there to be unrest, generally something has to change. New manager, new coaching staff, new players, whatever. My rule is the bigger the change, the greater the probability of unrest. At Tranmere things have been fairly stable. The team is just going through a rough patch with injuries and confidence at the moment. Sadly, it's spoiled a season that started astonishingly well for them but I've every confidence that with an old hand like Ronnie Moore's on the reigns, they'll bounce back.

 

Enjoy the match everyone!

 

Posted with Blogsy

Rovers v Robins

Last Time Out...

A trip to troubled Coventry was never going to be easy and so it proved. The Sky Blues, reeling from a 10 point penalty for entering administration and suffering the ignominy of having to keep the Rovers informed about where the match would be played certainly had some pride to demonstrate to the fans.

In the first half, Coventry set about Rovers in much the same way as they had set about them at the Keepmoat. Rovers were being pulled all over the park in the opening minutes particularly struggling on their left-hand side. It was no surprise when Cyrus Christie received a long pass on the right wing, advanced and cut in past James Husband before finishing in a way not associated with right-backs.

Rovers had their first opportunity in the 24th minute with James Husband's deflected shot ballooning up only to be pushed around Joe Murphy's post. But Coventry, and especially Carl Baker were bossing the midfield and seemingly creating chances at will. Rovers did improve towards half time, but only really in terms of limiting Coventry a little more rather than playing themselves. Half time came with the home side a goal to the good and with 12 shots to Rovers' 4.

A substitution at half time that, credit to the Rovers' Player commentary team they called, improved Rovers lot greratly. James Husband was withdrawn in favour of Dean Furman. With the midfield strengthened, Rovers were able to have more influence in the game and Joe Murphy needed to be at his best. Cotterill was twice denied by the ex-Scunthorpe 'keeper while Furman and McCoombe both spurned close-range chances. The woodwork was rattled from range by Furman before Cotterill was denied a further twice, first by the legs of Murphy and then when Aaron Martin pulled off a spectacular goal-line clearance.

Lots of effort from Rovers in the second half, but they couldn't get the goal and the pack has closed.

Coventry City 1 : 0 Doncaster Rovers

Meanwhile...

Swindon had what on paper was an easier task against relegation threatened Oldham at the County Ground. But relegation threatened sides are never the easiest especially when relegation remains merely a threat.

Dean Parrett for Swindon, showed great strength to fight off his man early on. His cross found its way to Massimo Luongo, making his Robins' debut but he wasn't able to finish the chance due good pressure from the Oldham defence and a good save from Dean Bouzanzis. With their next chance, Swindon should have taken the lead. Andy Williams' effort was pushed out into the path of Gary Roberts who with a virtually open goal, hit the post.

Into the second half and Andy Williams again missed a good chance, curling his effort around the post when clean through on the Oldham goal.

Oldham then had a spell of their own. A long goal-kick found its way onto the right wing and Wesley Foderingham made a mess of clearing the danger, instead becoming stranded outside of his penalty area. But Oldham couldn't find the cross they needed and the ball was scrambled away. Lee Barnard put an effort wide before doing better when a cross from Lee Croft found him unmarked in the penalty area. Oldham were in front but not for long.

Adam Rooney, who had come on as a substitute connected perfectly with a overhead kick to finish in a manner in which his more illustrious namesake would be proud. Rooney, playing the impact substitute perfectly, excepting that he couldn't get a second goal had two further chances as Swindon went for the winner.

They didn't get it though and so could not take the second place in the table that the win was offering.

Swindon Town 1 : 1 Oldham Athletic

Earlier this Season...

At the County Ground, Rovers put in one of the away performances that's put them where they are this season. Not spectacular in any way but determined and as a result they got something from the game.

Indeed the ESPN report of the match states that "Doncaster held on for a point they scarcely deserved". True? Perhaps, but Rovers have received comments like that all season. There comes a time when it ceases to be lucky.

Just 8 minutes had gone before Swindon had the lead. Matt Ritchie was picked out in the middle, unmarked by Andy Williams and it was 1 : 0. Just two minutes later, James Husband drove a cross that Danny Hollands could only put  past his own 'Keeper.

The first half continued frantically. Iain Hume had an effort saved by Wes Foderingham but more was happening at the other end. Chris Martin put a header onto the post and Gary Woods did very well to save the rebound. The woodwork rescued Rovers again, this time it was Andy Williams who had to watch as the crossbar kept out his effort.

The first half produced the better of the action and while Swindon were always in the ascendency in the second, they found the Rovers defence in determined mood.

Swindon Town 1 : 1 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so far...

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are looking at the team that has scored more goals than anyone else in this division. They've also conceded fewer than anyone else in this league. So why aren't they running away with it?

Part of the explanation lies in an extraordinary four-game run that the Robins put together in December/January. It started the match after they played the Rovers so maybe we did get lucky! 

Against Oldham, Tranmere, Portsmouth and Carlisle Swindon scored 16 goals without reply. All in all, Swindon have put four or more past their opponents on five occasions. If you do that, you build a goal difference. You also build the respect of your opponents as they realize what could happen to them.

The story of the season for Swindon had been strings of strong wins punctuated by more inconsistent form. As a result they've bubbled around the play-off places. They hit the the top for just the one match but everyone in the division is clear that this is possibly the most dangerous team in the league.

Swindon season high: 1st (February)

Swindon season low: 18th (August - after the first game)

...and so to the Game

Swindon have suffered a small dip in their form of late. Their last 8 fixtures only put them in 16th place in the form tables and their home form reduces them to 22nd. Unfortunately for Rovers, on their last 5 road-trips Swindon have shown the best form in the league.

As far as players are concerned, Matt Ritchie moved allegedly sold behind manager, Paolo Di Canio's back, an incident that proved to be the last straw for the fiery Italian. The rest of those players are still at the club though and from what I saw, Andy Williams certainly looks like a striker who could cause some difficulties.

The stats show that Swindon score their goals by creating lots of chances rather than by being particularly clinical with the chances they do create. Rovers, on the other hand tend to bide their time more, producing fewer chances but converting them more often. That's the theory anyway. In practice we haven't been as clinical in front of goal at the Keepmoat as we have elsewhere.

Swindon Goal Times

Unusually, the goal time charts show Swindon generally getting meaner as the game goes on. Normally more goals happen later in games as teams "go for broke" to try to get a result. Swindon's defence has reversed this trend so far this season and look to be able to weather any storms.

Doncaster Goal Times

It's a tie with a lot at stake in a league that remains ridiculously tight. For me it's going to be a little like the Coventry game. To win, Rovers first have to limit Swindon's attacking such that they are not able to gain a shooting opportunity every 3 minutes of possession. If they can do that, they can look at playing themselves. Against Coventry, Donny started unable to control their opponents and through the game gained control and then gave their opponents something to think about. They have to do the same against Swindon, but it must happen more quickly.

Forum Corner

Disastrous! Was one fan's reaction to the defeat at Coventry on Good Friday. Some fans do have a penchant for drama. I don't see how a disastrous result can leave you in the same league position as when you started the game, especially when that league position in first place.

Happily, other fans have a penchant for perspective. Billy Stubbs' Tears "reasons to be cheerful thread" sums up the situation perfectly. In short, the pack have closed, but the pack like us have difficult looking run-ins. We come into this period in the best possible position. With their games in hand we could be overtaken by Sheffield United or Brentford but the way this league has been, points in the bag have even more value over games in hand.

I'd also like to mention the VSC's fund raising efforts for former Rovers' hero Iain Duerden. For the Swindon fans, Iain was our top striker in our conference days and is now a fireman in Norfolk. His son, Oliver has a rare genetic disorder and requires a specially modified wheelchair. The VSC has been raising money to fund this and there will be a presentation made to him at today's game where he is guest of honour. It's nice when a club can give something back to a former player, especially one who will not have made thousands out of the game.

Onto Swindon Town's boards and the first thing I loved was this message as I registered for the Town End Forum

These people sound like my type of people!  

Looking around, I found a thread that was trying to forecast the outcome of League 1 this season.  The thread first predicted points required to finish first, second and sixth based on history and then looked at the performance of the lading sides to try to forecast where they would finish.  All this started after 33 games (or so) when 3 points covered the top 6.  Updated after 37 games, it looked a wee bit better for Donny, but the author ( DV Canio) admitted it was anyone's for the taking.

Challenge accepted, as a Donny statto I went for it and quite foolishly have wasted the afternoon on various models.  After correlating and comparing performance I came to the common-sense conclusion that a 46 game marathon has been turned into a 5 to 8 game sprint (depending on which team you are looking at).

So here's how it looks at the moment using the past 8 game's form to model the performance up to the last day.

Do I think it will end up like that?  No, not really.  I think Donny will win the title as I've said since December.  My basis for saying that is over the season, Donny have proved the most consistent of the teams in contention.  Thing is though, now we've all managed to turn it into a sprint, hat consistency counts for less.  The sides that can sprint to the line will be victorious.  Lets hope Donny are one of them.

Enjoy the game everyone.

Posted with Blogsy