Last Time Out...

A trip to troubled Coventry was never going to be easy and so it proved. The Sky Blues, reeling from a 10 point penalty for entering administration and suffering the ignominy of having to keep the Rovers informed about where the match would be played certainly had some pride to demonstrate to the fans.

In the first half, Coventry set about Rovers in much the same way as they had set about them at the Keepmoat. Rovers were being pulled all over the park in the opening minutes particularly struggling on their left-hand side. It was no surprise when Cyrus Christie received a long pass on the right wing, advanced and cut in past James Husband before finishing in a way not associated with right-backs.

Rovers had their first opportunity in the 24th minute with James Husband's deflected shot ballooning up only to be pushed around Joe Murphy's post. But Coventry, and especially Carl Baker were bossing the midfield and seemingly creating chances at will. Rovers did improve towards half time, but only really in terms of limiting Coventry a little more rather than playing themselves. Half time came with the home side a goal to the good and with 12 shots to Rovers' 4.

A substitution at half time that, credit to the Rovers' Player commentary team they called, improved Rovers lot greratly. James Husband was withdrawn in favour of Dean Furman. With the midfield strengthened, Rovers were able to have more influence in the game and Joe Murphy needed to be at his best. Cotterill was twice denied by the ex-Scunthorpe 'keeper while Furman and McCoombe both spurned close-range chances. The woodwork was rattled from range by Furman before Cotterill was denied a further twice, first by the legs of Murphy and then when Aaron Martin pulled off a spectacular goal-line clearance.

Lots of effort from Rovers in the second half, but they couldn't get the goal and the pack has closed.

Coventry City 1 : 0 Doncaster Rovers

Meanwhile...

Swindon had what on paper was an easier task against relegation threatened Oldham at the County Ground. But relegation threatened sides are never the easiest especially when relegation remains merely a threat.

Dean Parrett for Swindon, showed great strength to fight off his man early on. His cross found its way to Massimo Luongo, making his Robins' debut but he wasn't able to finish the chance due good pressure from the Oldham defence and a good save from Dean Bouzanzis. With their next chance, Swindon should have taken the lead. Andy Williams' effort was pushed out into the path of Gary Roberts who with a virtually open goal, hit the post.

Into the second half and Andy Williams again missed a good chance, curling his effort around the post when clean through on the Oldham goal.

Oldham then had a spell of their own. A long goal-kick found its way onto the right wing and Wesley Foderingham made a mess of clearing the danger, instead becoming stranded outside of his penalty area. But Oldham couldn't find the cross they needed and the ball was scrambled away. Lee Barnard put an effort wide before doing better when a cross from Lee Croft found him unmarked in the penalty area. Oldham were in front but not for long.

Adam Rooney, who had come on as a substitute connected perfectly with a overhead kick to finish in a manner in which his more illustrious namesake would be proud. Rooney, playing the impact substitute perfectly, excepting that he couldn't get a second goal had two further chances as Swindon went for the winner.

They didn't get it though and so could not take the second place in the table that the win was offering.

Swindon Town 1 : 1 Oldham Athletic

Earlier this Season...

At the County Ground, Rovers put in one of the away performances that's put them where they are this season. Not spectacular in any way but determined and as a result they got something from the game.

Indeed the ESPN report of the match states that "Doncaster held on for a point they scarcely deserved". True? Perhaps, but Rovers have received comments like that all season. There comes a time when it ceases to be lucky.

Just 8 minutes had gone before Swindon had the lead. Matt Ritchie was picked out in the middle, unmarked by Andy Williams and it was 1 : 0. Just two minutes later, James Husband drove a cross that Danny Hollands could only put past his own 'Keeper.

The first half continued frantically. Iain Hume had an effort saved by Wes Foderingham but more was happening at the other end. Chris Martin put a header onto the post and Gary Woods did very well to save the rebound. The woodwork rescued Rovers again, this time it was Andy Williams who had to watch as the crossbar kept out his effort.

The first half produced the better of the action and while Swindon were always in the ascendency in the second, they found the Rovers defence in determined mood.

Swindon Town 1 : 1 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so far...

Ladies and Gentlemen, we are looking at the team that has scored more goals than anyone else in this division. They've also conceded fewer than anyone else in this league. So why aren't they running away with it?

Part of the explanation lies in an extraordinary four-game run that the Robins put together in December/January. It started the match after they played the Rovers so maybe we did get lucky!

Against Oldham, Tranmere, Portsmouth and Carlisle Swindon scored 16 goals without reply. All in all, Swindon have put four or more past their opponents on five occasions. If you do that, you build a goal difference. You also build the respect of your opponents as they realize what could happen to them.

The story of the season for Swindon had been strings of strong wins punctuated by more inconsistent form. As a result they've bubbled around the play-off places. They hit the the top for just the one match but everyone in the division is clear that this is possibly the most dangerous team in the league.

Swindon season high: 1st (February)

Swindon season low: 18th (August - after the first game)

...and so to the Game

Swindon have suffered a small dip in their form of late. Their last 8 fixtures only put them in 16th place in the form tables and their home form reduces them to 22nd. Unfortunately for Rovers, on their last 5 road-trips Swindon have shown the best form in the league.

As far as players are concerned, Matt Ritchie moved allegedly sold behind manager, Paolo Di Canio's back, an incident that proved to be the last straw for the fiery Italian. The rest of those players are still at the club though and from what I saw, Andy Williams certainly looks like a striker who could cause some difficulties.

The stats show that Swindon score their goals by creating lots of chances rather than by being particularly clinical with the chances they do create. Rovers, on the other hand tend to bide their time more, producing fewer chances but converting them more often. That's the theory anyway. In practice we haven't been as clinical in front of goal at the Keepmoat as we have elsewhere.

Swindon Goal Times

Unusually, the goal time charts show Swindon generally getting meaner as the game goes on. Normally more goals happen later in games as teams "go for broke" to try to get a result. Swindon's defence has reversed this trend so far this season and look to be able to weather any storms.

Doncaster Goal Times

It's a tie with a lot at stake in a league that remains ridiculously tight. For me it's going to be a little like the Coventry game. To win, Rovers first have to limit Swindon's attacking such that they are not able to gain a shooting opportunity every 3 minutes of possession. If they can do that, they can look at playing themselves. Against Coventry, Donny started unable to control their opponents and through the game gained control and then gave their opponents something to think about. They have to do the same against Swindon, but it must happen more quickly.

Forum Corner

Disastrous! Was one fan's reaction to the defeat at Coventry on Good Friday. Some fans do have a penchant for drama. I don't see how a disastrous result can leave you in the same league position as when you started the game, especially when that league position in first place.

Happily, other fans have a penchant for perspective. Billy Stubbs' Tears "reasons to be cheerful thread" sums up the situation perfectly. In short, the pack have closed, but the pack like us have difficult looking run-ins. We come into this period in the best possible position. With their games in hand we could be overtaken by Sheffield United or Brentford but the way this league has been, points in the bag have even more value over games in hand.

I'd also like to mention the VSC's fund raising efforts for former Rovers' hero Iain Duerden. For the Swindon fans, Iain was our top striker in our conference days and is now a fireman in Norfolk. His son, Oliver has a rare genetic disorder and requires a specially modified wheelchair. The VSC has been raising money to fund this and there will be a presentation made to him at today's game where he is guest of honour. It's nice when a club can give something back to a former player, especially one who will not have made thousands out of the game.

Onto Swindon Town's boards and the first thing I loved was this message as I registered for the Town End Forum

These people sound like my type of people!

Looking around, I found a thread that was trying to forecast the outcome of League 1 this season. The thread first predicted points required to finish first, second and sixth based on history and then looked at the performance of the lading sides to try to forecast where they would finish. All this started after 33 games (or so) when 3 points covered the top 6. Updated after 37 games, it looked a wee bit better for Donny, but the author ( DV Canio) admitted it was anyone's for the taking.

Challenge accepted, as a Donny statto I went for it and quite foolishly have wasted the afternoon on various models. After correlating and comparing performance I came to the common-sense conclusion that a 46 game marathon has been turned into a 5 to 8 game sprint (depending on which team you are looking at).

So here's how it looks at the moment using the past 8 game's form to model the performance up to the last day.

Do I think it will end up like that? No, not really. I think Donny will win the title as I've said since December. My basis for saying that is over the season, Donny have proved the most consistent of the teams in contention. Thing is though, now we've all managed to turn it into a sprint, hat consistency counts for less. The sides that can sprint to the line will be victorious. Lets hope Donny are one of them.

Enjoy the game everyone.

Posted with Blogsy