Cherries v Rovers

Last Time Out...

Consistently inconsistent - that's what I want to talk about.  I don't want to talk about the match on Tuesday and I certainly don't want to have to watch the highlights.  It was bad enough listening to the smegger!  So, I'm going to try and do this without watching the lowlights of Tuesday.  I hope I manage it.  I'm in a really good mood at the moment and I don't see the point in spoiling that by watching a match where Rovers managed a season-low two shots on goal in the 90 minutes.

The thing is, the previous two matches saw us do exceptionally well.  First of all we won (always good) and second of all, we deserved to win.  To give you an idea of how much we deserved to win, look at the chart below.  In the two matches in question, we were much better than "Normal business".  These were the matches against Shrewsbury (A) and Hartlepool (H).

What you're looking at there is the shot difference each game.  If it's positive, Rovers had more shots than their opponents.  If it's negative, our opponents got more shots in than us.  On the horizontal axis, you can see if Donny won, drew or lost.

Now, if you're still awake, the dashed lines show what I'd call "normal business".  Based on Donny's performances, that's where the shot difference would be in 66% of games (not far out is it?).

This is the interesting bit (promise).  The first ringed game should be the match that we won and all you guys as fans asked "How did we win that?".  It's Tranmere away (they won 21 corners to our 1).  The second ring is a match that we lost and you guys would be asking "wtf happened there?"  It was Bury - away, which I think of as the start of our inconsistency.  

The next two ringed results are games we drew.....somehow (MK Dons at home and Crawley away).  Get the picture - No? - Never mind.

The point is look at how unstable the last 8 matches have been.  Bryan Flynn has been in charge for 10 games.  See what happens when you change your manager unnecessarily from a club perspective?

That incidentally, is not an attack on Flynn or the club.  When Saunders left, we were in second place, obviously with no intention of changing the manager.  In Flynn, we sought continuity.  A very reasonable aim when you're sitting second in the table.  But a change at the top makes a team unsure.  At the moment that instability is becoming more unstable.  There's one of those annoying football clichés "steadying the ship".  It's what Flynn must do.

Have I got away without watching the lowlights?  - Glad you think so!  Whatever you think or however confused you are, somehow we are still top.  But we've signed Mark Wilson, which obviously means we don't want to get promoted.  I'll deal with this point later! 

Meanwhile...

Our opponents on Saturday had their last match on Saturday.  Funny that.  How much more confident would Rovers be were their last game on Saturday.  Anyway, the first piece of action I saw on the highlights was a good ball out of midfield being just kept in play by David Mooney who pulled back for Charlie McDonald to have the simplest of tap-ins.  If you're not a Bournemouth fan, you would have noticed that every player mentioned plays for Orient.  Slack marking all around, simple white-flag attitude from Danny Seaborne (to be fair, everyone else gave up before him) and you understand why Orient took the lead.  

After a few chances themselves (one off the under-side of the bar) McDonald was left similarly slack-marked to make it two for Orient.  He had a little more to do this time, but not much.  He'd beaten the offside trap as he received the ball so as long as he stayed one step ahead he was always favourite to score, which he did.

Josh McQuaid crossed for Brett Pittman to give a great test for Jamie Jones, which he passed with flying colours, but Pittman, who'd threatened throughout wasn't to be denied.  Eunan O'Kane picked him out with a fine cross to the far corner of the 6-yard box and Bournemouth were making a game of it.  

But Kevin Lisbie killed the game, finishing from the middle of the penalty area after a fine O's move.

Bournemouth look like they can play.  They don't look like they know how to defend.

Leyton Orient 3 : 1 Bournemouth

Earlier this Season...

Donny were fair and squarely beaten by the Cherries at the Keepmoat.  Just before half-time, Harry Arter lost his man and made it 0:1 to the visitors.  It was one of those days for Donny.  Rovers efforts on goal meant David James didn't need to break sweat, although I think he would have at least have broken wind when Iain Hume's header flew in close proximity to his crossbar in the 54th minute.

We could also have argue about a penalty with Dave Syers being brought down in the area, but the referee didn't agree.  

However, at the end of the day, the better team won.  

  

The Season So Far...

It started badly for Bournemouth and after just 1 win in 11 matches, it was goodbye to Paul Groves and welcome back Eddie Howe.  The effect was instant as the Cherries beat Orient 2 : 0 in Howe's first game in charge.

They then went on a 15-match unbeaten run finally succumbing to Walsall in January.  That one seemed to be a bolt out of the blue though as the next 5 matches all ended in victory.  

But now?  Have the wheels come off the Cherries promotion wagon?  They've lost their last four only scoring one goal in the process.

So where Donny are inconsistent, Bournemouth are consistent.  They have put together runs all season.  The only problem being the one at the start of the season and the one they are in now weren't good runs.

Of all the teams in League 1, Bournemouth have the biggest difference between their best and worst league positions this season.

Bournemouth Season High: 1st (February)
Bournemouth Season Low:  21st (October)

...and so to the Game

Rovers away form as been what we have banked on this season.  We're still top of the league away from home but we're not the runaway leaders that we were.  Of late, our forwards haven't fired like they have fired on their travels seen by the shooting efficiency - in the last 5 matches half what it has been for the whole season.  The same applies to the defence.  The door was locked and bolted.  Recently we seem to have told opponents that the key is under the mat.

As for Bournemouth, well, as I've pointed out, they are having a spell of their own.  They are third in the home league table only having lost 3 matches at Dean Court all season.  Thing is two of those three were the last two matches played there.  

It looks like Eddie Howe's half time team talks do the business from the goal times chart.  In the first 15 minutes of second halves, the Cherries have scored 13 times while only conceding 3.  

When it comes to form, I think that table of stats shows Bournemouth have less to worry about than Donny.  Although they might not have won, Bournemouth's recent in-game stats (shooting, shots against etc.) are holding up.  They are at similar levels in recent matches as they have been all season.  They are doing the right things.  Donny's in-game stats on the other hand have changed quite dramatically.  That's a concern.

So what's going to happen?  Well I think Bournemouth will be well up for this one.  They're having a little dip in form and a match against inconsistent league leaders could be just what the doctor ordered.  Beating the leaders sends massive signals to fans that all is not lost, which it certainly isn't for Bournemouth.

But how true will those signals be if Rovers are beaten?  My bet would be that they would be quite misleading.  Rovers recently have either been brilliant, in which case they will win today or they have been really bloody awful.  What Rovers will turn up?

Sadly, I can't say I'm hopeful.  Donny's injury list is growing and the latest addition, Rob Jones' boots are the hardest of all to fill.  Gary Woods has also been reported to be struggling to be fit meaning Neil Sullivan could have been waiting by the phone all week.  In midfield,  Paul Keegan, Martin Woods and David Syers are all missing.  Forwards Chris Brown and Robbie Blake complete the list.

Bournemouth, on the other hand look like they are getting players back.  Tommy Elphick and Charlie Daniels are back in the squad after injury.

Forum Corner

There's been a conspiracy theory running all season that Rovers don't really want to get promoted.  I really don't know where they get this idea.  Their arguments are normally financial.  Pointing to Rovers taking cheap options in, for instance, their choice of manager.  

These conspiracy theorists went into overdrive this week at the re-signing of Mark Wilson.  Willo was never a fans' favourite at the club and the boards were rife with our lack of ambition in taking a player Gainsborough Trinity have rejected.  Rejected?  Did they actually reject him? They signed him on  match-by-match basis in December.  He made two appearances.  Behind the scenes at Trinity, there's trouble at t' mill.  Chairman Peter Swann, frustrated at having his attempts to  buy the Northolme ground is severing his ties with the club and preparing to sell it on.  I don't think Trinity have rejected Wilson, I think its more a case that they can't afford him.

As Bryan Flynn announced the signing, he did point out that Willo has been around Rovers since he came to the club.  For me, he's simply signed a piece of paper that makes him available for selection should it be necessary and in that sense, its a good idea.  At no cost, Rovers have an experienced, natural leader who knows the club and the players. I personally doubt he'll play again for the Rovers, but if the injuries worsen, there are far worse insurance policies  around.

To Bournemouth's Court Offside Forum and I was glad I wasn't the only one who enjoyed the sight of Alex Ferguson with steam coming out of his ears.  If Ferguson wasn't such a terrible example of many things wrong with the game (bad sportsmanship, no respect for officials, double standards) he would be the greatest manager of all time.  He regularly and flagrantly thumbs his nose at the football authorities so to see him tantrum always brings a smile to my face.  I really couldn't care less who wins the Champion's League but I do wonder what effect having no teams in the Quarter-Finals will have on English football.  Will we lose a champions league place?  Will English football lose money?  Will the money it has get better distributed?

Theres also a thread about double-figure redundancies at Dean Court.  The thread seemed a mixture of rumours and "from the horse's mouth" facts.  But the thread didn't refer to any announcement of news item and gave the impression that nothing had been announced.  This is strange because I googled AFC Bournemouth redundancies and found a story on the BBC.  It seems that some trimming of the wage bill is needed.  The club have the biggest playing staff in the division and from what I was reading, they don't lack people behind the scenes either.

Still redundancies are always sad.  I hope it works out for the club and the unlucky ones who end up without a job.

Enjoy the game everyone!