Rovers v Pompey

Last Time out...

With a cold snap sadly putting paid to midweek football, it gives me chance to congratulate the Rovers for a great result on the South Coast.  I feared the worst to be honest.  After the awful performance against MK Dons; injury news apparently getting worse by the day and Bournemouth hungry for a win to get back into the play-off places, I was almost happy that I couldn't listen to the game properly.  Winterthur were playing away in St. Gallen and I was on my way there.  A tip I picked up on the VSC, to download Puffin Web browser on my phone to listen to Rovers' player on the move allowed me to pick up about half of Glen Wilson's excellent commentary as I travelled into wild St. Gallen for Winti's clash with FC Wil.

It sounded a great game and looking at the highlights, it was.  Rovers rode their luck at times.  Most obviously when Steve Cook rattled the crossbar early on and when with just about the last kick of the game, Brett Pitman struck the post.

But there was plenty that wasn't lucky too.  First of all, Neil Sullivan showing everyone that should it be necessary, he can still pull on a shirt and do Donny proud.  Several good saves from the veteran on the day and I have to say, over all the seasons he's represented Donny, surely he is one of Sean O'Driscoll's best signings.

Through my journey through intermittently great and poor reception, I was lucky enough to be in St. Gallen's AFG Arena with it's excellent reception for all of the goals.  Billy Paynter's conversion of Cotterill's cross received a "Come on Donchaster" from the Winti faithful (I know, I've got a couple of things to teach them).  When Jamie McCoombe sold Sully disastrously short to allow Matt Tubbs' lob, they didn't notice my disappointment.  They didn't have time as James Husband went straight down the other end and smacked in that volley.  The teams in St. Gallen had just come out and I was leaping about like a looney!  It really set me up for Winti's match.

Unfortunately, they lost 1 : 0.  It was an awful game which just goes to show, you really can't have everything.

AFC Bournemouth 1 : 2 Doncaster Rovers 

FC Wil 1 : 0  FC Winterthur 

Meanwhile...

By having a fixture South of the Tropic of Sheffield, Pompey did manage to get in a mid-week match at Leyton Orient.

A little like Donny on Saturday, Pompey conceded due to an awful backpass from Dan Butler.  The only player who was going to get that ball was Orient's Shaun Batt and his finish was excellent, beating Simon Eastwood from the edge of the area.  But unlike Donny, the goal proved terminal for the South coast club.  

It was hard luck on them.  Jed Wallace was lively in the first half and had two efforts, the first easy for Orient's Jamie Jones to gather at the second attempt, the second saved by the Orient 'keeper's feet.

Orient registered just one chance in the first half, but it was decent.  Eastwood needed to be at full stretch to deny Craig Fagan from range.

After going behind, there was plenty of endeavor from Pompey but without return.  Possibly unfortunate in the end, but it was another defeat.

Leyton Orient 1 : 0 Portsmouth

Earlier This Season...

Iain Hume's 24th minute strike was enough to give Donny all three points at Fratton Park back in November.  I'd guess the Pompey faithful would say that Donny got lucky that day.  My response would be that we have won that way away from home all season.  There comes a point where it stops being luck.

Hume's goal was the highlight of a dull first half but Pompey were more lively in the second.  Mendez Laing was lively throughout and Pompey had a great chance to equalize as Lee Williamson miscued when in on goal from Laing's cross.  Donny then nearly made it two.  Mikkel Andersen saving brilliantly from Rob Jones.  Izale Macleod and Gabor Geypes then spurned further chances to give Portsmouth a point as Rover's away run continued.

Portsmouth 0 : 1 Doncaster Rovers

The Season so Far...

There's been no love lost between Pompey and Donny of late.  It started with the petulance of Steve Cotterill at the Keepmoat and escalated with a combination of Dave Kitson's cheating and the referee's incompetence finally condemning Rovers to relegation from the championship at Pompey's hands.  Do you know, I actually forgot Kitson's name when writing that!  I bloody loved that!  I googled Ginner Tw*t Sheffield United - that found him!

Anyway, no Cotterill, no Kitson and no idiot so truce!  Pompey fans are among the best in the country and they are not responsible for the idiocy with which their club has been run.  There is a long list of people responsible for that, including the football league.  I've looked on this season at times astounded by what has been allowed.

But sadly, it looks like Pompey are going to suffer a second successive relegation down to the fourth tier.  Being eight points from safety, eight games remaining and a minus 10 point penalty looming it looks pretty hopeless.  Sad, but it will be a long time since the bottom tier of the football league has seen the like when the Pompey fans go on their travels down there.

Portsmouth Season High: 10th (August - after the first game)

Portsmouth Season Low: 24th (February)

...and so to the game

Much though I'd like it to be a wholly one-sided affair at the Keepmoat, I can't see it going that way.   Don't get me wrong, Donny should win and I think they will, but a look at those stats shows Pompey have tightened things up of late reducing goals conceded by a goal per game.

But Donny have also improved at home, well at least defensively, halving what they have been conceding of late.  Interestingly, home and away form since Brian Flynn's reign started have become much more comparable.  Unfortunately, away form has deteriorated to do this but happily, home form has picked up to meet it somewhere in the middle.

Doncaster Rovers

Portsmouth

Looking at the goal times this season, for both sides, a lot happens in the last 15 minutes of the game.  The other point to note, how is looks like it all goes wrong for Pompey around half time.

For Donny, loan signing Dean Furman will come into the squad, which is welcome with so many midfielders out injured.  Gary Woods continues to struggle with his thigh injury so Neil Sullivan will continue as his very able deputy.

Pompey should have Jon Akinde back after a virus laid him low for the last two matches.

Tony Harrington will take charge of the game.  Harrington has taken 20 games this season, the first 11 of which were in League 2.  He then moved up the leagues taking 7 games at this level.  Add two matches in cup competitions and you get to the 20.  2.6 yellow cards per game is about average and 5 players have taken an early bath at Harrington's behest this season.

Forum Corner

Being a bit of a statto (does it show), just for Pompey, I'll re-quote Dutch Uncle's stat from a few weeks ago.  This season will be the first time ever Pompey will finish below the likes of Doncaster in the league.  There.  Now that's off my chest, I picked up today on another statty thread.

The Top 5 Most Valuable Players in DFP tells us that the Donny Free Press, printed a list of the players in order of the highest wins to starts ratio.  In these terms, the article lists the top 5 most valuable Rovers players with the "surprising" result that James Harper and Kyle Bennett are in positions four and five.  James Coppinger, who's return to Donny has been heralded by most, is Donny's least valuable player according to this "analysis".

And that's the point really.  Its not an analysis, it's a list.  You want to analyze?  Well the first thing that's needed is the understanding as to whether the win ratio of games where (say) Harper started is significantly different to the average.  There are statistical tests to determine this and the result of the test answers the question posted by MachoMadness.  i.e. Does the fact that in these terms Harper is the fourth most valuable Rovers' player in mean anything, or is it just coincidental?  You see, you have to go a tic further than just making a list.

Another alternative (or you could do it as well), would be to look at Harper's contribution to games in terms of in-game Stats.  This is looking at what he actually does.  How many passes does he complete, how many tackles, how many shots etc.  In other words, go the extra yard and try to explain why he is number 4 in that table.  If you can't, it's coincidence.

Its a shame really that people try to pass off producing such tables as statistics.  It gives the stattos with genuine skill a bad name and causes the ill-informed to trot out that time-served adage "you can prove or disprove anything with statistics". 

When I looked at the Pompey bulletin board, the first thing I noticed was the subject matter of the first articles.  We had the deployment of missiles to Alaska by the US; Musicians Corner; Red Nose Day; New Zealand v England; The Pope....in fact I went 14 articles down from the stickies before I found something football related!  And that thread was about Jon Harley signing for Maidstone United!

So this thread could be touching a nerve eh?  Never mind.  I assure you this is not intended.  Enjoy your trip to Donny and good luck in finally sorting things out at Fratton Park.  

Enjoy the game everyone.